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We’re winding down the day of baseball with a short Wednesday night slate, but that’s when the fun begins for me. I’m seeing plenty of value here, and I’ll pass along my two favorite plays.
Philadelphia Phillies (+100) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-121) Total: 8
This one might not make the most sense considering the Phillies are missing two of their best hitters in Alec Bohm and JT Realmuto, but Zack Wheeler is a good place to start building a case for Philly.
The righty really should be an All-Star, carrying a 2.46 ERA into this outing with some excellent underlying numbers. His strikeout rate is still elite at 27.2%, and while his hard-hit rate is up to 33.1% his expected numbers — namely his 2.74 xERA — are nothing to bat an eye at. He’s been simply dominant.
Toronto hasn’t been all that great at the plate, either, sporting a 105 wRC+ over the last week and a 107 wRC+ over the last two. It’s going to be difficult to get runners on base against Wheeler.
I also seem some significant disrespect towards the Phillies’ lineup. Sure, they struck out 14 times last night, but can we talk about the job the bottom of the order did? The bottom five of the order had six hits and the top four just one, proving that this lineup isn’t reliant on the few stars it has left to produce runs.
Ross Stripling‘s strikeout rate is well below league-average, and given what we saw last night I have a hard time believing he gets the required outs to get out of this one alive.
Edge: Phillies +100
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Houston Astros (+100) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-121) Total: 7
I’m going to take the bait on the Astros once again here. For starters, Houston is second in wRC+ over the last two weeks and the Angels are in last place. The discrepancy here is massive.
Let’s go through both pitchers here. Shohei Ohtani has been pretty dominant this year, but he’s still prone to giving up hard-hit balls and is heavily strikeout reliant. A guy who actually has better expected stats is the man who will oppose him here, Cristian Javier.
Javier’s strikeout rate is one of the best in the game at 34.1%, and the Angels’ strikeout rate over the last two weeks is a ridiculous 33.2%. I’m not even sure I’ve seen that number in a two-week span ever. On top of that, he’s rocking a .262 xwOBA and a 2.47 xERA, both incredible numbers that are more than good enough to stop the Angels.
Edge: Astros +100
