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Monday moving slowly after the holiday? Have the day off work and want to catch some ball? I’ve got a couple ways to make the action a little more fun and put some money back in your pockets after the celebrations have subsided. Let’s get into some best bets.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) vs. Miami Marlins (+135) Total: 7
It seems lazy to keep fading the Dodgers against lefties, but not only has it been a winning strategy, but the pitching matchup couldn’t be less favorable for Los Angeles.
Trevor Rogers has been a machine for the Marlins, and even though his numbers have fallen back to Earth just a bit, he still enters with some momentum here with 15 strikeouts in the last 10 2/3 innings. The biggest thing here is that Rogers’ spin rates have remained steady through the league’s crackdown on foreign substances, so it’s not like his last two outings, which weren’t the best, were anything other than a coincidence.
The story couldn’t be any different for Walker Buehler, who has seen his spin rates drop around 300 rpms over his last two starts. The season was already a strange one for Buehler, who is striking out fewer hitters and allowing more hard contact, and now it’s taken another turn downward.
The Marlins have risen to nearly league average in wRC+ over the last two weeks, and should be up to the task here. On the other side of the coin, the Dodgers are in the bottom half of the league against lefties, and will run into one who’s throwing well enough to shut them down and just received an All-Star nod.
Edge: Marlins +135
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Philadelphia Phillies (+125) vs. Chicago Cubs (-145) Total: 11
If you have to pick between Matt Moore and Zach Davies, first of all — my condolences. Second of all, you’d be foolish not to pick Davies.
Both men have ugly peripherals — Moore carries in a 5.73 xERA and Davies a somehow-worse 6.13 xERA — but there is a massive difference between the two. One guy has been able to produce results on the mound, and one has not.
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It defies all logic, really, because he lacks any sort of strikeout stuff and gives up a bundle of hard contact, but Davies has been great at getting outs this year. He gets ground balls at nearly a 50% clip, and he has a great infield defense behind him, so it really hasn’t mattered how hard the ball has been hit. Furthermore, his strand rate is nothing to bat an eye at.
Moore, on the other hand, has been torched and enters with 21 barrels against him to Davies’ eight. The home run potential is very high here for the Cubs, and I see too much of an edge in the pitching matchup to fade them here at this number. Chicago’s had its issues at the plate, but Philly has arguably had more, and it’s also worth noting the Phillies have hit ground balls at the ninth-highest rate this season. That will help Davies out greatly.
Edge: Cubs -145
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