The MLB season is weeks away from opening day and one of the up and coming teams in the National League are the Pittsburgh Pirates, believe it or not. After Paul Skenes won a CY Young last year, management decided to spend a little bit of money on some bats, which was an encouraging sign and makes this squad a bet-on team in 2026. Here’s how to bet on the Buccos this year with the new faces, and young talent returning.
Pittsburgh Pirates O/U 76.5 Wins
The Pittsburgh Pirates made moves this offseason! That’s not something that makes headlines very often, as Bob Nutting is known as one of the cheapest owners in all of Major League Baseball. In 2025, the Buccos’ payroll was $104,739,138, ranking 27th overall, but this year, that number is up to $117,975,000, coming in at 21st! Big Spenders!
Some of those millions were spent on improving the lineup, which superstar Paul Skenes all but demanded should happen this offseason. Pittsburgh brought in Ryan O’Hearn (Padres), Brandon Lowe (Rays), Jake Mangum (Rays), and Marcell Ozuna (Braves). That quadruplet of hitters substantially improves on the lineup and gives Pittsburgh multiple viable hitters joining Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, rookie Konnor Griffin, and Nick Gonzales. When you look at the top paid players on Pittsburgh, O’Hearn (2nd, $14 million), Lowe (4th, $11.5 million), and Ozuna (5th, $10.5 million) all crack the top five, so the Pirates ownership is making an effort to bring in talent and pay them.
Pittsburgh finished third-worst batting average last year (.231), ahead of only the Guardians and Angels, recorded the fewest home runs by a landslide (117, next was 148), plus were last in OPS (.655) and SLG (.350). O’Hearn, Lowe, Magnum, and Ozuna may not be the sexiest additions, but they were much-needed if the NL Central’s fifth-place team wants to go from last to leader (71-91). In terms of odds to win the NL Central on DraftKings, the Pirates are listed at +800 or a $10 bet wins $80, ranking fourth in the division.
The starting pitching rotation will be one of the best in the National League, starting with the reigning Cy Young winner, Paul Skenes, followed by Jared Jones (4.14 ERA), who is coming back from injury, Mitch Keller (4.19 ERA) following a down year, rookie sensation Bubba Chandler (4.02 ERA, 7 games played), plus Braxton Ashcraft (2.71 ERA), and Jose Urquidy (2 games played in 2025) who is coming off Tommy John Surgery.
Last season, Pittsburgh owned the seventh-best ERA (3.76), the eighth-best opponent batting average (.236), tied for the fourth-best WHIP (.122), ranked seventh in walks allowed (473), and permitted the third-fewest home runs (153). Clearly, the pitching was not a problem for the Buccos last year, well, outside of the closer spot.
Pittsburgh had to move on from David Bednar as the closer. In 2024, Bednar posted a 5.77 ERA and 27 saves to go along with a 3-8 record and seven blown saves. While Bednar’s numbers improved in 2025 (2.37 ERA, 17 saves, 0 blown saves), the writing was on the wall for the now 31-year-old. The Pirates traded Bednar to the Yankees in exchange for minor league catcher Rafael Flores (No. 8 prospect), minor league catcher Edgleen Pérez, and outfielder Brian Sánchez. Flores has a chance to make the opening day roster this season, while Pérez and Sánchez are projects in a star-studded farm system.
The Pirates’ bullpen saw acquisitions this offseason to bolster their support of Skenes and company with the signings of LHP Gregory Soto (Mets) and RHP Mason Montgomery (Rays). Dennis Santana will presume the role of closer after Bednar’s departure. Santana had 16 saves, 13 holds, and three blown saves last year, along with a 4-5 record and 2.18 ERA (60 Ks to 17 BB). Pittsburgh will need relief pitchers like Carmen Mlodzinski (3.55 ERA), Kyle Nicholas (4.74 ERA), Hunter Barco (2 games played), and a few others to step up and improve on mediocre numbers or limited action last season.
Going from last place in a division to first place isn’t unheard of. The Red Sox went from last in the AL East in 2012 and won the World Series in 2013. The 2006 Cardinals and 2005 Red Sox both finished last in their divisions the year prior and won the divisions the following season, plus the Orioles almost went from last-place to first-place in the AL East last season (75 to 91 wins, finished in second-place) after winning the AL East in 2023.
The safest bet is for the Pirates to go Over 76.5 wins up to 77.5 after totaling 71 victories last year. I truly believe this roster is at least six wins better than last season, but for a long shot, I like the Buccos to win the NL Central at +800 odds. You can call me crazy, but I believe it’s in the realm of possibility. Started from the bottom, now we here!
Picks: Pittsburgh Pirates Over 76.5 wins (3 units), Pittsburgh Pirates to win NL Central (1 unit)
MLB Futures Card
3 units: Pittsburgh Pirates Over 76.5 Wins (-115)
1 unit: Pittsburgh Pirates to win NL Central (+800)
1 unit: Paul Skenes to win NL CY Young (+250)
1 unit: Garrett Crochet to win AL CY Young (+425)
0.5 unit: Konnor Griffin to win NL Rookie of the Year (+600)
0.5 unit: Bubba Chandler to win NL Rookie of the Year (+1200)
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