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Thursday offers us fewer betting options on the diamond, but that doesn’t mean there’s not value to be found on this short slate. Here’s what I’m thinking for tonight.
New York Yankees (-121) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (+100) Total: 7
Ryan Yarbrough may not be throwing a lot of innings at the start of games, but he’s throwing enough to make an impact. And so far, that impact has been incredibly bad.
Sure, the left-hander ranks among the best in the league in hard-hit rate and barrel rate, but he is producing few whiffs and striking out just 16.9% of hitters with his weak arsenal which sits in the bottom 10% of the league or worse in spin rate. Pitching to contact simply does not work against the Yankees, particularly if you’re left-handed.
The Rays offense is 10th in wRC+ in the last two weeks, and it will have to contest with one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in Nestor Cortes. Tampa Bay struggled against lefties last season and is 12th against them this year — and while that’s not bad it’s certainly not going to be nearly enough against a strong pitcher.
The Yankees are deserving favorites here.
Edge: Yankees -121
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-186) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) Total: 9.5
From one bad opener to another, we have Mitch White going for L.A. who is in the midst of a dreadful season. He’s registered a 6.17 ERA to this point with a dastardly .443 xwOBA on contact, and while there are some signs he’ll turn things around he’s still very average in the walk department and is giving up far too many hard-hit balls.
Arizona, in the last week, has been on a tear. It is in the top five in offensive production and comes in here the winners of five in six. On top of this, their walk rate sits in the double figures and they’ll surely feast on White, who has had serious control issues.
Humberto Castellanos may not be amazing, but he’s only allowed more than three runs in a start once this year and has solid peripherals to back his surprisingly effective arsenal and decent numbers. I think he can hold off a Dodgers offense which was just shut out for long enough to get Arizona started on the right foot.
Edge: Diamondbacks First Five +0.5 (+110)
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