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Well, we’ve got just one game on our hands on Sunday, but luckily I’m seeing some great value in it. Let’s get into how we’re betting Padres-Mets.
San Diego Padres (+120) vs. New York Mets (-140) Total: 6.5
Joe Musgrove is a better pitcher then Chris Bassitt. While it’s close, that’s not really a disputed fact.
The right-hander had an excellent close to his season, allowing just one run in his last four outings, spanning 22 innings. He induces ground balls at around a 46% rate, which is higher than the league average and should play well against a contact-happy Mets offense which puts it on the ground around 44% of the time.
More than those two things, Musgrove isn’t a strikeout-reliant arm and shouldn’t really have to worry against a team which doesn’t hit many home runs. He also has a cutter he will use effectively, considering the Mets rank 25th against that pitch this season.
San Diego has scored 10 runs on 14 hits through two games which is more than I ever would have expected out of it against Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, considering the way this team has been hitting. The Padres should dig in here and hit Chris Bassitt, who owns a 3.42 ERA on the year and a 3.45 ERA for his career. The Mets righty ended his season with a four-run clunker against the Braves and can’t be said to be in the same form as Musgrove.
Edge: Padres +120
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