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We’ve got a packed slate of baseball to bet on Friday and I’ve picked out two late games which I’m seeing plenty of value in. Let’s get to them.
Atlanta Braves (-120) vs. Seattle Mariners (+100) Total: 7
Charlie Morton has really turned things around ever since his sketchy start to the season. He posted a 3.26 ERA in the month of August and is fresh off a great outing against the Marlins where he struck out seven across 5 1/3 one-run innings. He’s pitching much more to his 3.95 xERA these days, and with that encouraging number has come a low .225 xBA.
Seattle isn’t a team which is tearing the cover off the ball right now. It holds a 104 wRC+ in the last two weeks of play with a 22.8% strikeout rate, though it does have a .192 ISO. I do think this is a solid matchup for Morton, whose strikeout stuff has come back and who has pitched incredibly well to contact and limited loud batted balls.
Atlanta has the sixth-highest ISO during that time which could make life interesting against Robbie Ray, whose Achilles heel is allowing homers and extra-base hits. The Braves are also third in wRC+ to lefties.
Edge: Braves -120
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-165) vs. San Diego Padres (+140) Total: 8.5
If you want to talk about expected stats, how about Mike Clevinger and his 4.29 xERA and .415 xSLG? He definitely doesn’t deserve the success he’s had, and we’ve started to see that lately. The last time he faced the Dodgers, which was his last outing, he yielded five earned runs in 3 1/3 innings.
Dustin May hasn’t really pitched a lot this season since he just came back from injury, but the early results aren’t really the best. His 3.94 ERA and 12.1% walk rates are cause for concern, and against a Padres team which is starting to find its groove, things could get tricky.
May is strikeout-reliant, and the Padres don’t strike out a ton. In fact, over the last two weeks just 19.6% of their plate appearances have ended in a punchout.
I think conditions are good here for both offenses.
Edge: Over 8.5