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Jose Urquidy O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Braves
Jose Urquidy will make his second start of the postseason and first of the World Series. What a time to be alive.
Urquidy was blasted for five earned runs (six total), two walks, one strikeout and 57 pitches over 1.2 innings against Boston.
That was at Fenway, but locations of the games do not matter at this point, just the location of pitches, and Urquidy does not have that.
Urquidy has never faced most Atlanta hitters, only Eddie Rosario (2 PA) and Travis d’Arnaud (1 PA).
That is not a positive for a 26-year-old RHP that tosses the fastball 55% of the time. He also ranks in the 32nd and 40th percentiles for K% and whiff%, per baseballsavant.com, with a decline in xwOBA over the last month and 100 PA.
The Braves love the fastball, and that is how they feasted on the Dodgers pitching rotation. That is bad news for Urquidy who has not shown much of anything to feel confident in backing the Over 3.5 Ks.
Per statmuse, Urquidy has nine postseason appearances with three games of Over 3.5 Ks and six Under 3.5 Ks (66.7%). In his last five, he has gone Under 3.5 strikeouts four times (80%).
NBC’s player prop model projects 2.7 strikeouts from Urquidy, a shade better than his only start in this year’s postseason, but still Under 3.5 Ks.
Urquidy is 5-4 to the Over 3.5 Ks between 1.0 inning and 5.0 innings on the regular-season and postseason (55.5%).
At 4.0 innings or less this year, he is 3-1 to the Under 3.5 Ks (75%) - pictured below.
I expect 3.0 to 5.0 innings from Urquidy in Game 2, so I will back the Under.
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I played the Under 3.5 strikeouts at -125 odds for 1 unit.
I would Urquidy’s Under out to -150 odds and a half-unit at Under 2.5 strikeouts for +110 or better.
Pick: Jose Urquidy Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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