MLB K Props, September 29th: Gerrit Cole, Alex Wood Pitcher Props
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Gerrit Cole O/U 18.5 Outs vs. Blue Jays
Gerrit Cole will take the mound in a pivotal game between the Yankees and Blue Jays.
In yesterday’s New York victory, Jameson Taillon exited after 2.2 innings pitched due to precaution after returning from the IL.
Cole will need to extend his start in order to make life easier on the Yankees bullpen. New York used five relief pitchers after Taillon, so the pressure is on the ace (Cole).
Cole will make his fifth start against the Blue Jays this season. He went 5.1 (16 outs), 6.0 (18 outs), 8.0 (24 outs) and 3.2 (11 outs) innings in four starts against Toronto.
He needs 19 to hit the Over here, something he did only once in four tries against the Blue Jays this year.
NBC’s player prop model shows Cole has hit 6.2 innings pitched, hitting the Over.
He has gone 6.0 innings or more in 10 out of 15 road starts (66.7%) and 6.1 or more in five (33.3%). He went 6.0 innings or longer in 18 of 29 starts total (62%).
I grabbed this at +140 value. Shortly after my tweet, the line moved to +100. That is as far as I would play it.
Cole owns a 10-4 record in his 15 road starts, so we know he is capable of hitting this away from Yankee Stadium. He also has 94 innings in his 15 road starts to 81.0 in 14 home starts, so he lasts a little bit longer on average when on the road.
New York is going to need it today, back the Over on his outs prop.
Pick: Gerrit Cole Over 18.5 Outs (1u)
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Alex Wood Over 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Diamondbacks
Alex Wood will make his fifth start against Arizona this season, and for some reason, his strikeout prop is still 4.5.
This season, Wood has dominated this 4.5 line versus Arizona with five-plus strikeouts in all four meetings between 4.0 and 6.0 innings pitched. San Francisco is still winning while Arizona’s season is all about over.
NBC’s player prop model projects Wood to hit 6.9 strikeouts, hitting the Over and giving us one of the best edges on the slate. He recorded seven, eight five and five strikeouts in his four starts against Arizona.
Six of the last 10 LHP versus Arizona went Over 4.5 strikeouts (60%) and 16 of the previous 25 (64%), per statmuse.
Wood made three of his four starts against Arizona in those last 25 versus LHP.
The Giants have won eight of the last nine starts that Wood has taken the mound. In that case, I will play Wood at four strikeouts plus the Giants ML parlay, in addition to his Over 4.5 strikeouts.
I like both plays as the Dodgers remain on the heels of the Giants after their 2-1 win over the Padres last night. Wood has a 10-4 record on the season and a 7-2 record at home. Wood is 2-0 against Arizona with two more no-decisions on the year.
Back Wood and the Giants to cruise with a victory over the Diamondbacks, something they have done 15 out of 17 times this season.
Pick: Alex Wood Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1.5u), Wood 4+ Strikeouts and Giants Win (1u)
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