Editor’s Note: Don’t just bet your favorite sports. LIVE YOUR BET LIFE! Get started today at PointsBet with two risk-free bets up to $2,000. Bet now!
Here we go. The 16 Super Regional teams are locked in and the eight matchups are set. Anybody that watched the Regional round saw just how scintillating this weekend was. If you thought that was great, just wait until you see the Supers. I honestly have a hard time saying how many sports are better than postseason College Baseball. Let’s take a look at what we can expect from the matchups this weekend, and their series’ prices.
Quick piece of advice for any type of bets for College Baseball, SHOP AROUND. A lot of different books are hanging mispriced numbers, so you can take advantage of them.
*Each play will be labeled (1 through number “X”) to determine how I rank my plays on a daily basis.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+240) @ Tennessee Volunteers (-285)
I’ll go out and say that I successfully projected these two teams to get past their region, and ultimately meet up in the Supers. I like this matchup. I think it’s very intriguing seeing how Tennessee will draw one of the better pitching staffs in the tournament. The Fighting Irish capped off their 3-0 weekend by allowing only seven earned runs the entire weekend, which was tops in the entire regional round. Do they have enough horsepower to slay the mighty Vols?
Notre Dame has built a strong 38-14 team on the foundation of their pitching. Led by a true ace in John Bertrand (9-2, 2.27 ERA, 103/19 K to walk ratio, 99 IP), the Irish have a great chance to win any time he has the ball. Behind him is another impressive grad student in Austin Temple and his 3.46 ERA and 85 punchouts in 65 innings. With the pair of them forming one of the better 1-2 punches in the country this season, they have an extremely effective and deep bullpen that has helped notch their team’s 3.82 ERA. That’s the seventh-best in the nation. Ironically, their opponent is number one with a wide margin leading 2.38 team ERA. Obviously, ND can pitch, but their offense is a major question mark. Having scored only 11 runs in three contests in the regionals, and 10 in three games in the ACC Tournament, they absolutely need to score to beat the Vols.
Hey, baby @Tennessee! They have been my pick this whole time. They’re the team I absolutely told everybody to grab at +450/+400 a few weeks ago and now is down to +175 to win it all. Although I just sat back and watched when the Vols were +800 and +1000 knowing very well they were the best, I still grabbed what I felt was a favorable number. You’ve heard it all by now, but I do think they have the best and deepest offense in the nation. They play great defense. They can run the bases. They have the best and deepest pitching staff in the country led by FOUR number one starters/aces (Dollander, Tidwell, Burns, Beam). I could go on all day. We saw how offensive wagons like Georgia Tech and Campbell, who I told you was no joke, came out and punched the Vols in the mouth early but it didn’t matter. This is the best team in America and has been all along.
There still is some value in playing them at +175 to win it all. Otherwise, you likely will not find any game-to-game value in the form of Money Lines. The Totals are usually where it’s at for UT. Keep an eye on the pitching matchups for Games 1 and 2. If the Totals are set at anything over 12, it’s an AUTOMATIC UNDER for me. I project both games to be low-scoring. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Notre Dame win one, but I think Tennessee sweeps en route to Omaha.
PREDICTION: Tennessee wins (-285)
Oklahoma Sooners (+180) @ Virginia Tech (-210)
Phewww. That was a close call for the Sooners on Sunday. Sheesh. If it wasn’t for the weather delay, I think realistically we’re seeing Florida this weekend instead. In any case, OU stayed hot after a 3-1 mark in the Gainesville Regional, bringing their total to 22-9 over their last 31 contests. They will draw a top-five team in Virginia Tech for the chance to go to Omaha. Can they pull this off?
You may remember I wrote up Oklahoma as a team to watch a couple of weeks ago heading into the tournament. For good measure, I also appeared on Bet the Edge on Friday and talked them up at 60/1 to win the whole thing. Florida did have some answers for them in the last two games, but the Gators are a legit team, and they found a way to get past them. In addition to a potent offense with a lot of sources for production, their pitching staff showed a lot of moxy against a loaded Florida lineup. Even against a wagon of an offense, and a very good pitching staff, the Sooners can wreck the game with their ability to run (139 SB). There are enough stars like Peyton Graham, Jimmy Crooks, Tanner Tredaway, Blake Robertson, and John Spikerman in this lineup to attack a potent V-Tech pitching staff. I see no reason why Oklahoma can’t win if they play their game.
The Hokies seemingly kept quietly building a bulletproof case as one of the top teams in the country. I mean they’re 44-1, with a 32-5 record at home. They took the series from Miami, UNC, NC State, UVA, and Louisville this year, which are all legit teams. There have been seven players have with at least 10 taters, six starters with a .300 average or better along with an OPS of at least 1.000 and four players with at least 10 stolen bases. The lineup is DEEP. The pitching staff has three good starters led by talented freshman, Drue Hackenberg (10-2, 3.10 ERA). They are definitely the favorite for a reason. Ultimately, Oklahoma has beaten a lot of great teams down the stretch like Texas, Florida, Texas Tech, TCU, so they won’t shy away from a challenge like this.
The Sooners were on my watch list. I’ve been supporting them and even though it’s a bit of an uphill battle, I think their style of play matches up very well with the Hokies. OU’s pitching within Jake Bennett, David Sandlin and even Cade Horton has been great, especially against powerful lineups. I believe V-Tech’s staff is good, but it’s better on paper. They’re beatable. Let’s see OU rise to the occasion again.
FYI: Keep an eye on pitching matchups. I will definitely be looking to fade V-Tech’s “Friday guy” in SP Griffin Green. He has been struggling a ton down the stretch (15 ER in last 12.1 IP). This series should definitely go to all three games.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma wins (+180)
Louisville Cardinals (+110) @ Texas A&M Aggies (-130)
Louisville took advantage of some less than stellar play from a pesky Michigan team on Sunday. In a back and forth matchup, they were able to throw the final punch to secure their ticket to the next round. Battling an uber-hot Aggies lineup will make for one interesting offensive showdown, while advantageously great for the OVER bettors who has the edge in this one?
Don’t get me wrong. The Cardinals offense is legit. They not only have boppers in the lineup, but they got an elite base stealer in Levi Usher (36 of 39). It’s a diverse group with a lot of different sources of production that can hurt you. With Cam Masterman, Ben Metzinger, and Dalton Rushing combining for 59 of the team’s 94 tanks, it’s obviously a priority to keep the ball in the yard if you’re an opposing pitcher. Having scored the sixth-most runs this season (533), the offense is obviously not their weakness. Outside of ace Jared Poland (3.43 ERA), it’s hard to rely on much consistent production from the rest of their staff (5.23 team ERA). I think the Cardinals are one of those good teams that are better on paper than they actually are.
The Aggies were my Oklahoma team before I really loved Oklahoma. I’ve already mentioned a bunch how they were completely mispriced a few weeks ago on PointsBet at +7000 to win the whole thing. This is a legit team that has really come on strong down the stretch. Even before a quick 3-0 regional round, TAMU was ripping through their fellow SEC opponents down the stretch, taking the series from Ole Miss, Miss St, South Carolina, Vandy, Arkansas, Georgia and Kentucky. Without repeating myself too much (for those that have listened, you’ll understand it), Texas A&M has a loaded lineup that has heated up like extra virgin olive oil with some garlic on a frying pan. You won’t see them among the nation leaders as a team in a ton of offensive categories, but don’t let it fool you. Led by a future MLB star in OF Dylan Rock, this team is going to be a tough out. The big question is if their pitching staff can meet the offense even halfway, which it did last weekend because if that happens then everybody better head for the hills.
It’s a battle of fire-breathing offensive dragons, so it really comes down to which pitching staff blinks first. Given how A&M has played with the creme de la creme all season in the SEC, I think they are not only better but a little more prepared for this type of moment. On top of that, A&M has been my dark horse for about a month now.
PREDICTION: Texas A&M wins (-130)
The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
Texas Longhorns (-140) @ East Carolina Pirates (+120)
Let’s give it up for the ECU Pirates one time! They had a 20-game win streak before losing their first matchup on Sunday to Coastal Carolina. They’ve certainly been a fun team to watch, and now we get to see them square up against one of College Baseball’s members of the royal family in the Texas Longhorns. Which way is the wind blowing?
Let me just say, for those of you that have not watched any ECU baseball that their CF Bryson Worrell is easily one of the top players in the country. This past weekend it was play after play in the field and hit after hit at the dish for this kid. The outfielder is an absolute dog. With a solid lineup and pitching staff on deck, it’s no wonder they cracked D1 Baseball’s top 10 rankings. Ideally, it has been SP Ryder Giles as their Friday guy (3.27 ERA), with CJ Mayhue (2.82 ERA) and Jake Kuchmaner (3.71 ERA) sprinkling in quality starts among others. Plus, who could forget their resurgent stud reliever Carter Spivey (2.43 ERA) who threw a gem in the winner-take-all game on Sunday vs. Coastal Carolina. I absolutely give this team a decent chance to take Texas the distance. They are legit.
Sangue blu perfectly describes the Longhorns and their storied program down in Austin, TX. The 45-19 burnt orange brawlers have caught fire down the stretch like I used to in my glory days on the beer pong table. Backed by a 14-3 record over their last 17 games, UT is poised to get back to the College World Series for the 38th time in school history. With a white-hot 1-2 pitching duo in ace Pete Hansen and Lucas Gordon, it’s been a difficult task to knock off Texas as they have been supported by a stable of thoroughbreds on offense. Led by Ivan “The Hispanic Titanic” Melendez, who is the front runner for the best offensive player of the year, and his nation-leading 30 taters and .404 average, this lineup is well equipped to tattoo opposing pitching. Texas was on my list of teams to watch heading into the tournament and for good reason. It’s just too difficult for me to not stay with them.
This seems like it should go to three games. Whenever Pete Hansen is pitching, I am definitely looking to back the Longhorns. Based on how they have been operating him, my guess is it will be on Friday night.
PREDICTION: Texas wins (-140)
UConn Huskies (+250) @ Stanford Cardinals (-295)
Red alert. Keep your eyes open on this one ladies and gentlemen. On paper we have the number two team in America with the Stanford Cardinals taking on the Big East’s lone wolf in the UConn Huskies. Both teams went 15 rounds in their respective regions this past weekend against Maryland and Texas State. Which battle tested team stamps their ticket to the Supers?
Let’s start with UConn. Realistically, you could make the case that they should have lost to Maryland on Sunday. Thanks to one of the worst/weirdest calls ever made or seen on a baseball field that went in their favor, they have the chance to face the big bad Stanford Cardinals. Anyway you dice it, the 49-15 Huskies ran through their schedule in the Big East before throwing the last haymaker in the College Park Regional round against a tough Maryland squad. They deserve to be here, so show some respect.
UConn has a very good offense, not great though. With a .300 average, 80 tanks, and 70 swiped bags (94 attempts), they pose a threat to a lot of programs. There are enough weapons in this offense to turn it up a notch when needed. The pitching has been a strong point throughout the year, even if you wouldn’t have thought that watching them this weekend. With three great starters, led by Austin Peterson (11-2, 3.30 ERA, 145 K’s in 109 IP), this team will be a handful for Stanford. Their team ERA of 3.50 is third best in America. Oh, and Peterson’s strikeout total is third in the country, only behind Drew Thorpe of Cal Poly, and Oregon State’s Cooper Hjerpe. Don’t sleep on them.
All season we’ve been hearing about Stanford’s powerhouse program. They have long list of bomb squad lieutenants and offensive studs like Brock Jones and Carter Graham (both with over a .320 average and 39 combined HR’s). With so many places to turn to for production, it’s easy to see why they put up the offensive numbers they did as a team (.307 average, 105 tanks, 455 runs). Pitching wise, you could make a case they have a top five pitcher in the country this year with ace Alex Williams (2.35 ERA, .99 WHIP). Behind him is a great closer in Quinn Matthews (2.69 ERA, seven saves). The rotation depth is a bit shaky though.
My personal feeling, aside from my Pac-12 prejudice, is Stanford is very good. They have been all year long, but they are not great. They are beatable. Texas State is a legit program, they have been one of the best for most of the season, but Stanford should not have been in the position they were. The Cards should have lost. I think it’s only a matter of time until they get bounced. I believe UConn has a legit chance for a monster upset.
PREDICTION: UConn wins (+250)
Auburn Tigers (+145) @ Oregon State Beavers (-165)
For the second straight weekend, the OSU Beavers will see a rambunctious SEC Team. A lot of people, myself included, have discounted the Auburn Tigers a bit. After blowing through a somewhat difficult region with relatively little resistance, they looked poised to give the Beavers an all out war. What kind of chance do they have?
The Tigers offense to me seems a little top-heavy. Their main squeeze would be the big boy, Sonny DiChiara, the 6’1”, 263 pound SEC Co-player of the year. Sonny D was also named a Golden Spikes semi-finalist, Dick Howser Trophy semi-finalist and on the First Team All-SEC. That’s how you know he’s legit. Just in case you wanted some numbers, he mashed for a .397 average, 20 blasts, and a 1.369 OPS. Nobody else on the team has even 10 home runs. There are a few guys with an average of .300 or better, it’s just not that deep of a lineup, but that did not stop them from scoring 51 runs in their three regional games this weekend. Against an OSU team with a lot of good pitching, including the likely best pitcher in the country this year in ace Cooper Hjerpe, it has to be more than just Sonny D if they want to pull off an upset. For their staff, they have some good arms like Joe Gonzalez, Hayden Mullins and closer Blake Burkhalter. It’s a good staff to limit a Beaver lineup that has some star power.
Oregon State, like Stanford, is a very good team, but it remains to be seen if they are truly great. Regarded as the second best team in the country for most of the second half of the year, most people would agree they are nothing worse than top three. If you recall how I said the Vols are the only team with four legit number one starters, I still believe that’s the case. However, OSU is the closest thing to that in my opinion. Although they have been a little inconsistent at times this season, their rotation is deep, and has some great arms out of the pen like the electric Ben Ferrer. Offensively, they have some studs, like Pac 12 player of the year, Jacob Melton (.360 avg, 16 HR’s, 21-22 in SB) and Justin Boyds (.366 avg, 24-30 in SB), even though there is not much power (55 HR’s as a team). Overall, the Beavers definitely look to be the better and deeper team over Auburn, but that doesn’t mean the Tigers should be overlooked.
I’m torn on this matchup. Originally, I had OSU winning, which could be more likely. But I want to take a shot on the Tigers playing great baseball, and demolishing good pitching teams like UCLA and Florida State. They could give an overrated Oregon State team a lot of headaches. This is no layup if you’re the Beavers. Almost every SEC team is a legit threat. I’m going with Auburn in three.
PREDICTION: Auburn wins (+145)
Arkansas Razorbacks (+115) @ UNC Tarheels (-135)
I really had about zero faith that Arkansas would upset Oklahoma State the way they did. Honestly though, I pegged the Cowboys as an overrated good, not great team that was still definitely better than the Razorbacks. A team that could close would have beat Arkansas. I had ARK on my fade list heading in due to their lack of situational hitting, quality starting pitching, and bad defense. It’s like they heard me because on a dime, the Razorbacks gave me the middle finger by becoming the most clutch hitting, gold glove fielding, and improved pitching team you’ve ever seen. Facing a better team in the Tarheels, let’s see it carry over.
I feel hurt by Arkansas. I was with them most of the season until they took a turn to negative town the last month, but now of course they decide to look like a star studded, purebred show pony. Their offense has been locked in behind Cayden Wallace, Brayden Webb, Brady Slavens, and Michael Turner. Their pitching area I recognized was their strong bullpen, and good ace, Connor Noland, who took a brief hiatus from pitching well. After finding ways to win games that they should have lost, it looks like they could be a force to be reckoned with this postseason. Arkansas has a tough test in ACC champion North Carolina.
UNC has been hanging around all season long. Having won 19 of their last 22 while grabbing an ACC Tournament Title and Chapel Hill Regional round win, the Tarheels have been humming since late April. Led by superstar Vance Honeycutt (24 HR’s, 29 SB), who drew some comparisons this weekend to Trea Turner with his rare blend of speed and power, this UNC team has the capability to beat just about anybody. A lineup with a lot of boppers in it (100 total taters), they can cause problems for a lot of pitching staffs, even one like Arkansas.’ Additionally, they have a solid pitching staff that has been dealing as of late. Playing to a 33-7 record at home, I think UNC has what it takes to pull out a CWS appearance. They have not made the finals since their back to back runner-up showings in 2006 and 2007 where they lost to the Oregon State Beavers in consecutive championships. Ooof.
I think this really is a toss up. On one hand, the Razorback significantly improved their play this weekend, but on the other a good team that could close would beat them. After all, OK state had two five run leads in game one. I’ll stick with my original thought of fading ARK.
PREDICTION: UNC wins (-135)
Ole Miss Rebels (-110) @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-110)
A big time fader, the Ole Miss Rebels. I’ll die on the hill that they had no business beating Arizona in the first game, and absolutely none beating the Hurricanes on Sunday. Miami gave that game away. For a team that was dead last in being selected to the postseason, the Rebels have made their appearance count. Now, they draw the most favorable matchup in the entire Supers round in their in-state rival Southern Miss Golden Eagles.
Overall, the Ole Miss pitching was great this weekend. In three games, they largely dominated Zona twice and Miami once. It’s ironic considering how I pegged their staff as weak, outside of ace Dylan Delucia (when he is on point). Offensively, they did enough behind el capitan Tim Elko, and slugger Jacob Gonzalez. Luck sometimes breaks your way. They could not have asked for a better opponent. Not saying Southern Miss is a push over because they are not. D1 Baseball had the Golden Eagles inside the top 20 for most of the last two plus months. Still, it’s the best they could have asked for.
Let’s be real with ourselves. If LSU could pitch, they easily crush Southern Miss. I thought they would find a way to complement the high powered offense just enough, but it didn’t happen. Still, kudos for them to find a way to get it done. After the Rebels eliminated them from the postseason last year, and split with them this season, can the Golden Eagles exact a little dish of revenge in Hattiesburg? With a few mashers like Chris Sargent (21 HR’s), Carson Paetow (16 HR’s), and Will McGillis (16 HR’s), they could take advantage of a couple starters that have allowed a lot of long balls this season. However, their pitching is their bread and butter. With a team ERA of 3.17, So. Miss has all three of their weekend starters logging a sub 3.00 ERA, which is among the best in D1 baseball. Their ace, Tanner Hall, has ranked among the league leaders in ERA, WHIP, K’s for pitchers this season. It was proven this weekend when Ole Miss dealt with strong starters like Garrett Irvin and Carson Palmquist, they had a difficult time, so building on that will be key.
As a pick’em, I really believe Southern Miss has a good chance to win this, especially considering how the Rebs were on my fade list. I just think Ole Miss has so much good luck on their side right now, so I will go against my original pick. Seeing how they were the number one team in the country at one point. Playing in the SEC, this Rebels team is battle tested. I do hope Southern Miss wins, but I think we’re better off siding with Ole Miss.
PREDICTION: Ole Miss wins (-110)
Enjoy the taste, kid
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. NJ, IA, IN, IL, CO, MI, VA, WV only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
