UFC 290: International Fight Week is Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card is highlighted by Australia’s Alexander Volkonovski returning to the featherweight ranks for a title unification bout against Yair Rodriguez of Mexico and Brandon Moreno also of Mexico defending his flyweight title against Alexandre Pantoja of Brazil.
Earlier this week, Stephen DeAugustino (@DeAugieDogie) and Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas) of NBC Sports broke down each of the five fights on the Main Card on this week’s episode of Octagons, Circles & Squares.
Bo Nickal (-1300) vs. Val Woodburn (+750)
DeAugustino: “We’ve seen this with a lot of the handpicked fighters that Dana and the UFC really think have a lot of potential, whether it’s Conor or Sage Northcutt. They take their time, and they know that there is a future with this fighter. We’re talking about an Olympic caliber wrestler here. We’re talking about someone that has wild grappling chops even if even for a blue belt, he’s competing with high profile grappling matches. I don’t think there’s really much else to say. Bo’s going to win. If you want to find value, I think you’ve got to get in some of the round props. You know, all three of his wins in the UFC are by submission.”
Jalin Turner (-250) vs. Dan Hooker (+210)
Thomas: “I think you even said this before we started talking. Hooker hasn’t been good, right? He’s been losing a lot of fights. But then I go down and I look at the people that he’s fought so far. This man is fighting everyone. He has losses against some of the best fighters. But my problem with Dan Hooker is he’s normally the longer, taller fighter. Now, he goes against Turner who has the reach advantage and the height advantage. Man, it’s going to be interesting because I don’t want to lay -245 or, -230, but I don’t see a pathway to victory for Dan Hooker.”
Robert Whitaker (-410) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (+310)
DeAugustino: “DDP’s just fresher. I would definitely just take GDP money line here to be honest and feel pretty good about it. I think he’s probably my one big upset of the card.”
Thomas: “Robert Whittaker is one of those guys who knows how to grind out fights and grind out long, five round fights. If you look at his last five fights, I think all five have gone the distance. However, you’re not going to make money sitting here backing a -410 fighter. I don’t think DDP wins this fight if it goes the distance. If I want to bet DDP which I probably will do, I’ll bet DDP to win inside the distance.”
Brandon Moreno (-195) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (+165)
Thomas: “I love watching Moreno fight. He just puts his heart and his soul into every fight. And it makes you not want to bet against him. But I’m going to bet on Pantoja. I think they are a lot more even in terms of what they do. Pantoja is the wild card who comes in here without that elusive belt victory over Moreno. He may just be the hungrier fighter. So for me, I’m just going to take this as closer to a coin flip than the odds suggest and take Pantoja +165.”
Alexander Volkanovski (-375) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+285)
DeAugustino: “I think the only path for Rodriguez here is to draw Volkanovski into to some kind of wild slugfest and have Volk lose some of that discipline for which he is so famous. The problem is Volkanovski is revered for his discipline. He might be the most disciplined fighter that we have seen and so drawing him into a street fight or slugfest may not be possible. Having spoken with him, I can tell you Volk is locked in. It’s a huge weapon in his arsenal. People don’t talk about it enough.”
Enjoy the fights and enjoy the sweat.
