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The Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway may be the most difficult race yet to handicap. As drivers are still trying to figure out the NextGen car, the track made the long-delayed decision to repave – against most drivers’ wishes – and that has had a ripple effect.
NASCAR believes the new surface will create speeds great enough to necessitate the use of the same carburetor-restrictors they use at Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway. Expect the yellow line rule to also be in place.
Handicapping the first four races has been difficult enough already. It’s going to get even more challenging with these new factors tossed in. The good news is that the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway was slightly more predictable than Auto Club Speedway. Last week’s Ruoff Mortgage 500k at Phoenix Raceway was back to being anyone’s race, however, as three drivers seeking their first wins finished first through third.
Uncertainty makes bettors cautious and the upside to that is that as of Wednesday morning, no driver had odds under 10/1. Nine drivers are closely grouped from +1000 to +1500 and while the payout is quite a bit better than the last three unrestricted races, picking outright winners is still a gamble. On another sportsbook, those long lines provide plus odds for top-fives throughout the field – for now at least – so if you are going to bet on a winner, cover it with one for a top-three or -five.
Proposed Winner
Ryan Blaney (+1000) has not been a PointsBet Sportsbook favorite in the past three seasons. The fact that he opens as the co-favorite this week with Kyle Larson is therefore extremely significant.
Making this even more interesting is that the string of bad luck he’s had in recent weeks might have another driver flying under the radar. Blaney has had a car capable of winning each week. Had he not been blocked into the wall by a teammate at Daytona he would already have one. Then, there were extenuating circumstances at both Auto Club and Las Vegas. Last week, he finished fourth after getting behind on his adjustments.
A strong start is part of why Blaney is favored. But he deserves attention because of his similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track stats as well. Blaney won this race last year and has a three-race, top-five streak at Atlanta. That was one of five results sixth or better in nine starts on this track. Last year for the QuikTrip 500, Blaney was listed at +1600 and the traders do not want to replicate that mistake.
Best Bets for a top five
Larson (+1000) has every right to be the favorite. He’s finished first or second in the last three “cookie-cutter” races and scored four wins on this track type last year. Normally we would move him down a position or two because his line was so low, but this week we expect that in a head-to-head matchup, he is equal to Blaney – and quite frankly, probably another two or three drivers who will find a magic setup early in the weekend.
While we know that Kyle Busch (+1200) does not deal with frustration well, it’s becoming a constant for everyone in the field and he has the added emotional benefit that no one is comfortable in the NextGen car yet. Entering last year’s second Kansas Speedway Hollywood Casino 400, Busch has an 11-race streak of top-10s results on this track type, of which two were wins and eight were top-fives. He was well on his way to winning Las Vegas before a late-race caution shuffled the field and he finished fourth.
We are not entirely sure what to do with Chase Elliott (+1200). NBC analyst Steve Letarte is fond of saying, “tell me when the last caution is going wave and I’ll tell you the strategy.” That is how we are starting to view Elliott, who may be the worst of the marquee drivers on restarts. If he has track position and a long enough run to close out the QuikTrip 500, he could challenge for the win. If there is a late-race restart, he is more likely to finish outside the top five.
We went heavy on Kevin Harvick (+1500) last week, coming close to making him a favorite instead of Martin Truex, Jr. While he finished seventh, he challenged for the win in the closing laps and we were encouraged by his performance. That race may well have turned his season around. It’s too soon to guarantee that he will be a weekly threat, but bettors who get on the bandwagon early will have the best seat. In his last 18 races on this track type, Harvick has top-fives in 50 percent of his starts and top-10s 72.2 percent of the time.
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Best Bets for a top 10
It is not out of the question that NASCAR could have back-to-back, first-time winners and a third newbie in five races. We don’t expect Atlanta will be the same kind of wild card as Daytona or Talladega, but even without that as a consideration, Tyler Reddick (+1600) could well be a favorite to win. He has run well in all four races this year, but more importantly he has seven top-10s in the last 10 races on this track type. One of those was a second-place finish at Homestead-Miami Speedway last year. Last week, he finished third at Phoenix.
After Alex Bowman (+1400) won the Pennzoil 400, this might seem like jumping on a bandwagon, and we would be lying if we said that win didn’t have something to do with our positive forecast. Without that factor, Bowman might be on the high side of the top 10 or low-teens this week because he was uneven on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks in 2021. He was steady as a rock at Atlanta, however, with a third in the spring and fourth in the summer. Those were his first top-10s on this track, but he’s never had quite this much momentum.
Yeah: We’re a jinx sometime. In fairness, we did warn you to that fact as we picked Truex (+1600) as our favorite. We have to keep going by the numbers, however, and hope that the No. 19 puts together a complete race and doesn’t run into any bad luck. In his last 18 races on 1.5-mile tracks, Truex has top-10s in 77.8 percent of his starts. Less than half were top-fives though, (44.4%, to be exact).
With four races in the books, it’s too soon to say that any one organization is dominant. Hendrick Motorsports has wins for two of their drivers already and William Byron (+1300) came close with a fifth in his last attempt on a 1.5-mile track. Last year, he won at Homestead early in the season and during the season, he failed to finish in the top 10 only twice. One of these came at Atlanta 2, so you may wish to be a little cautious.
Denny Hamlin (+1200) has been hard to handicap so far this year, but mostly because he’s been star crossed. In four starts, he has yet to crack the top 10 with a best of 13th last week in Phoenix. He’s much better than his results show, however. While he should challenge for a single-digit result, that is far from certain and with 12/1 odds, he’s not a great value for the overall win. On another book, he is listed at +150 for a top-five and that is a better bet.
Cookie Cutter finishes – 2018+ Through Las Vegas 1 | ||||||
Driver | Wins | Top-3s | Top-5s | Top-10s | Top-15s | Starts |
With Wins | ||||||
6 | 17 | 24 | 34 | 36 | 43 | |
6 | 13 | 23 | 32 | 37 | 43 | |
5 | 8 | 15 | 20 | 31 | 43 | |
4 | 11 | 16 | 28 | 32 | 43 | |
4 | 11 | 15 | 22 | 27 | 33 | |
4 | 9 | 12 | 25 | 32 | 43 | |
Martin Truex, Jr. | 3 | 15 | 21 | 34 | 36 | 43 |
3 | 4 | 9 | 26 | 29 | 43 | |
2 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 33 | 43 | |
2 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 25 | 43 | |
1 | 6 | 15 | 23 | 29 | 43 | |
1 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | 43 | |
1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 43 | |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 22 | |
14 drivers | ||||||
With top-threes | ||||||
| 3 | 8 | 19 | 23 | 43 | |
| 2 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 22 | |
| 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 21 | |
| 2 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 43 | |
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. |
| 1 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 43 |
| 1 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 43 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 34 | |
21 drivers | ||||||
With top-fives | ||||||
Best in top five |
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21 drivers | ||||||
With top-10s | ||||||
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| 9 | 16 | 43 | |
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| 2 | 7 | 43 | |
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| 1 | 6 | 43 | |
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| 1 | 2 | 34 | |
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| 3 | 10 | |
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| 2 | 40 | |
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Driver | Wins | Top-3s | Top-5s | Top-10s | Top-15s | Starts |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 42 | |
| 2 | 5 | 10 | 22 | 33 | |
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| 4 | 8 | 17 | 33 | |
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| 5 | 16 | 41 | |
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JH Nemechek |
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