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JR Motorsports’ current stable of drivers all have amazing records at Darlington Raceway, last spring they finished first, second, fifth, and seventh in the spring race. The only driver change between then and now is Sam Mayer taking over for Michael Annett in the No. 1. This weekend they have an added weapon in 2020 Cup Champion Chase Elliott piloting the No. 88. This is the first of five races where Hendrick drivers will compete in the Xfinity field.
JR Motorsports drivers Mayer, Justin Allgaier, Josh Berry, and Noah Gragson all finished in the top five last week with Berry conquering the Monster Mile. Dover Motor Speedway is the most similar comparison track to Darlington Raceway, with both classified as rough tracks. Drivers who were successful last week, should be again in the Mahindra 200.
Outside of the JRM camp, we’re still watching a the top-10 record for AJ Allmendinger. Only three drivers in the history of the series have started the season with more than 10 top-10 finishes in the first 10 races of the season. Allmendinger has the chance to join them this week, if he can turn around his lukewarm history at Darlington. Ty Gibbs was the only driver to break up the dominance of Jr Motorsports with his third-place finish last week and has one of the best shot at keeping JRM from sweeping the top five.
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Proposed Winner
Noah Gragson (+460) has a superb record at Darlington Raceway never finishing outside of the top ten in five starts and netting three top fives including a win here in the fall. Gragson won last year’s Sports Clips 200 by passing Daniel Hemric on the final regular time restart and surviving one overtime with Harrison Burton on his tail. Gragson also led 40 laps at Darlington in last year’s spring race and settled for a fifth-place finish. In five starts at the track Gragson has never finished worse than eighth for an average finish of fifth.
Gragson and Ty Gibbs are currently in a dead heat in the points race tied in second with 384 points each, with Gibbs owning the tiebreaker with three wins to Gragson’s two. Neither of them has an easy path to first with Allmendinger consistent performance at the top of the field.
Best Bets for a top five
Allmendinger (+1000) only has two recent starts at the Xfinity level at Darlington and they were both outside of top 10. He was 20th last fall and 13th in the spring, but his current momentum helps to minimize the impact of those bad finishes. What we’re seeing out of Allmendinger this year breaks models and there’s no sign that he’s slowing down. Last week’s sixth-place finish was his 10th consecutive top-10. Allmendinger has an average finish of 4.5 this season and he has the chance to join a select few by finishing 10th or better at Darlington. He currently sits on top the standings with a 43 points buffer above Gragson and Gibbs. At the rough tracks, Allmendinger has an average finish of 0f 8.17 going back to spring Darlington. If you take out his subpar Darlington finishes that average jumps to fourth. Allmendinger needs to heal from the venom he’s been infected with by the black widow – the Lady in Black.
Justin Allgaier‘s (+700) second-place finish last week at Dover stopped a slide of five results 14th or worse. He has an average finish of 26.2 since his last top-10 at Phoenix International Raceway in early March. Allgaier has a great record on the rough tracks finishing in the top 10 in the last six races dating back to his win at spring Darlington 2021. He has an average finish at the track of 9.29 since 2017 that includes a crash in 2020. With that omitted, the average bounces up to 5.7.
In Gibbs’ (+600) first start at Darlington last spring, while running part time, he advanced 11 positions from 29th to 18th. He would have finished higher, but was plagued with speeding penalties throughout the race. While he hasn’t matured completely, you should look back to Martinsville Speedway’s emotion to remember, he has learned to make fewer boneheaded mistakes on the track. Gibbs finished third last week at Dover for his fourth top-five of the season. Gibbs has the second-best chance to break up JRM supremacy at Darlington. In only 28 series starts, Gibbs has already tallied seven wins. It’s also important to note that a Joe Gibbs Racing driver has led the most laps in 10 of the last 17 races at Darlington.
With so many changes to the car this season, Cup drivers seem more hesitant or are getting fewer chances to race in the Xfinity series. Hendrick Motorsports and JRM are joining forces to bring some of Cup’s best current drivers, Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson, William Byron and Chase Elliot to the Xfinity stage. Elliott (~ +350)has a best career finish at Darlington of fourth in the senior series. He’s raced at Darlington at the Xfinity level three times, winning in his most recent start back in 2014. Elliot will be flying high after his first win of the season this Monday at Dover, just five days before getting in the JRM No. 88.
Josh Berry (+700) is coming off his third career win in the Xfinity series after taming the monster at Dover last weekend. Dover and Darlington’s similarities will line Berry up for success again. Added to his toolbox are a group of strong teammates, current momentum, and finishing in the top 10 on five occasions so far this year and the top-five four times and a second place finish here last spring.
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