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Road courses are great places to showcase talent because driver skill trumps horsepower. Note that says horsepower and not mechanical grip or setup. The crew continues to play a huge role on these tracks, but a driver who cannot communicate what he needs to feel in the corners is not going to get a car that can turn both right and left. And with 20 turns at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA), there is a lot of room for error.
NASCAR heads to the Central Texas track for the second time after wet and wild inaugural event. Despite weather impacting it, the outcome of the 2021 EchoPark Grand Prix showcases the breadth of what road racing can be. Strategy plays a huge role, but the cream still rises to the top. This was also seen at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.
Rain ultimately shortened COTA’s race last year and if it had not, Chase Elliott very likely would not have won because he was slightly off-sequence on pit stops. Second-place Kyle Larson and third-place Joey Logano would have moved up, however, and they are among the most powerful road racers in the field. If forced to pit, Elliott would probably have fallen to the high side of the top 10 along with Kyle Busch, who also had a car capable of winning.
But among the top 10 were several dark horse contenders who continue to be relevant – and that is also a theme of road course races.
Finishing fourth last year, Ross Chastain (+2200) was at the time of last year’s COTA race one of the biggest surprises in the field. He was not particularly strong on this track type in 2018/2019 with a best of 22nd and was coming off a disappointing Daytona road course effort where he finished 39th. He held a steady wheel in the rain, however, and then followed up his COTA top-five with a pair of sevenths at Sonoma Raceway and Road America. Coming off three consecutive top-three finishes this season, he could even be a contender for the win.
Tyler Reddick (+2500) has similar momentum on his side. He finished seventh at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and was third at Phoenix Raceway in races he was strong enough to win. Last week he drew a bad finish in the pack racing lottery at Atlanta Motor Speedway but ran well. On road courses, he scored four top-10s that included a second-place finish on the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course.
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Likewise, Chase Briscoe (+1800) was solid on road courses in 2021 and has been stout in recent weeks. He became the second first-time winner this year when he held off Chastain and Reddick in the Ruoff Mortgage 500k at Phoenix Raceway. His three road course top-10s were almost joined by a fourth at Indy. That race might have turned into a victory after he spun Denny Hamlin out of the lead in the final laps, but was under penalty for jumping the restart.
We toyed with the idea of making Christopher Bell (+2000) a potential top-10 pick, which would have elevated him to the Best Bets post. His Daytona road course win was impressive, especially when one considers that he and Elliott were on the same strategy that forced them to come through the field after a late pit stop. He finished second at Road America and had two other top-10 finishes. Unfortunately, his other three results last year ended outside the top 20. So did his two efforts from 2020 and that makes him a risky proposition.
William Byron (+1800) did not perform very well on road courses last year with only one top-10 in seven starts and an average of 23.1. His single top-10 came at Watkins Glen International, which is distinctly different from COTA. But Byron has two things in his favor this week. He’s coming off last week’s QuikTrip 500 win and he swept the top 10 on Daytona and Charlotte’s road courses in 2020.
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Kevin Harvick (+5000) is another driver we could not quite elevate to favored status because of his anemic attempts on road courses last year. He scored a sixth at Daytona and eighth at Watkins Glen for his only top-10s and averaged a finish of 21st. He’s one of the best drivers in the field, however, and it wasn’t that long ago that he recorded his second win at Sonoma in 2017. At a whopping 50/1, he’s worth a mad-money bet. On another sportsbook, he has a +800 line to finish in the top five and +150 for a top-10.
For quite some time, Michael McDowell (+9000) has been one of our favorite dark horses on road courses because of his experience in the Trans Am series. He often runs well, but hasn’t earned the number of top-10s we expected over the past several seasons, so we have taken a more cautious approach recently. And then: he started 2021 with a pair of top-10s at Daytona and COTA after scoring another road course top-10 in 2020. Watch him in practice, but make him a race day decision because his last five efforts on this course type ended outside the top 15 with an average of 25th.
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