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Since World Wide Technology Raceway is new to the circuit, NASCAR graciously awarded them a second practice session. As all practices should be, this one ran with the entire field on track for a full 50 minutes and it may well be the only time this year that we have really gotten anything out of these sessions.
NASCAR also had an extra session at Daytona International Speedway and the newly reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway, but since both of those events were pack-racing lotteries, the data gleaned was only a small part of an overall pool of data that means little-to-nothing.
One thing learned in this session, was the Team Penske is fast, not only on the short run, but also over the course of 10 laps. Ryan Blaney (+1000) was the only Penske driver profiled in the Best Bets post this week – and even then he was considered because we valued the strength of his desire.
Joey Logano (opened at +1500) has a great record on intermediate, flat tracks, but his historic numbers have not been particularly predictive of his recent finishes. He’s struggled and pretty much the only time he’s run well since finishing third on the Bristol Motor Speedway dirt track was when he wrecked William Byron to take the Darlington Raceway win. That could change this week because his worst finish in the last four seasons on intermediate, flat tracks was an 11th and five of his last seven attempts there ended in top-fives.
We continue to believe Austin Cindric (+5000) is a risky bet for the overall win, but if you find a decently long line for a top-five, he could be relevant after posting both the third-fastest and -quickest time in practice. Bettors can expect him to qualify well, but that will diminish his place-differential points in the DraftKings fantasy game. Still, a rookie season is made up of building blocks. Drawing the No. 1 pill in the Daytona 500 lottery was great, but Cindric needs to run consistently well to build confidence.
We intentionally saved Kurt Busch (+2900) for the dark horse post this week because there is an overabundance of longshots capable of running well and simple mathematics says not all of them can finish in the top 10. Busch has been much better on unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks than he has been on flat tracks in the past couple of years, but Gateway is kind of in between the “cookie-cutters” and short tracks. Busch’s fifth-place finish in the Ruoff Mortgage 500k at Phoenix Raceway had him on our radar screen, but his sixth-place position on the 10-lap chart and third-place on the speed chart made him shine brighter.
For major portions of the Coke 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Tyler Reddick (+1600) looked like he had a 50/50 chance of scoring his first Cup win. He was equally strong at Phoenix early this year and finished third in a race heavily impacted by the changing of the guard. Ahead of him were first time winner Chase Briscoe and a driver who’s become a dominant factor, Ross Chastain (+900). Ever since, we’ve been wondering when he will get his first win. With the sixth-fastest time on the speed chart, he’s still highly regarded.
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Based on his Phoenix win, Briscoe (+2500) also needs to be considered as a solid choice this week. Young Guns are hard to handicap because they don’t yet have consistent records that elevate them to the top of the statistical charts, but that lack of experience also occasionally makes them extremely attractive because it keeps their betting lines long.
Even after getting banged about last week in Charlotte, Erik Jones (+7000) gutted out a 14th-place finish in a damaged car and he was in consideration for a top-10 until the Coke 600 went into overtime. The King, Richard Petty, has been in St. Louis all week hyping this race and will have infected Jones with that enthusiasm. A top-10 is within reach.
We might have considered Chris Buescher as a dark horse this week, but after taking a hard tumble at Charlotte, the news got worse as he tested positive for COVID-19 this week and will be forced to sit the weekend out. In his place, Zane Smith makes his Cup debut and the No. 17 could be interesting to watch, but anything in the top 20 will be considered a moral victory.
If AJ Allmendinger (+20000) was on your radar screen, you might wish to reconsider. While he was in Portland practice and qualifying for an Xfinity race he’s favored to win, Ben Rhodes crashed his Cup car.
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