Editor’s Note: Don’t just bet your favorite sports. LIVE YOUR BET LIFE! Get started today at PointsBet with two risk-free bets up to $2,000. Bet now!
The Xfinity Series has a little more wiggle room in their schedule with only two rounds of playoffs before the championship race – and that is nine weeks way with an off week tossed in. The rules are roughly the same with the exception that 12 drivers will battle for the title. Winning is still critical, however, and plate racing is a good time to snag a spot.
This is the second race with the current configuration that has created a smaller version of Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway. Because the track is smaller, the racing is a little different, but it was not enough so in this spring’s Nalley Cars 250 to discourage us from using those tracks as comparatives.
Pack racing is inherently unpredictable because of all the things that can go wrong. When we had two tracks, some lessons could be learned at Daytona and applied at Talladega, but a mistimed pass or unfortunate accident could also completely decimate a fantasy roster or send you to the trashcan while ripping up betting slips. Be cautious in both regards.
In the Cup Series, only one driver has a sweep of the top 10 and no one swept the top five. The stats for the Xfinity series are markedly different. Another way to show the difference between the haves and have nots is that eight drivers are listed below 10/1 in Xfinity while none of the Cup drivers opened that low.
Editor’s Note: Enjoy 15% off our NEW NBC Sports EDGE+ Subscription this holiday season and get every tool (Fantasy, DFS & Betting) for every game at a great low price. Use promo code HOLIDAY15 at checkout. Click here to Buy Now.
Proposed Winner
While this series is also prone to ‘Big One’ crashes, they often happen deeper in the field and that allows the strongest drivers so stay ahead of the carnage. AJ Allmendinger (+525) has been the most successful in doing so with three podium finishes in three starts. Last year, he had three such finishes in four starts, so it is likely that he will be in contention when the checkers wave.
Allmendinger has not won on this track type in the past two seasons and normally that would be an opening to us suggesting caution. In the past two seasons, however, seven pack races have been won by seven drivers, so winning is not the only factor to consider. Allmendinger is due.
Best Bets for a top five
Riley Herbst (+1500) has also had a lot of success in pack racing in the past two seasons and he is getting progressively better. In 2020 he scored just one top-10. In 2021, he scored two. This year, he has three so far and there are still three races remaining. Equally important, his top-10s are spread out so that five of them came in the last six races. Like the ‘Dinger, he’s failed to find Victory Lane over the past two seasons on this track type – and he has just as much of a chance to keep that streak of new winners alive. With a line nearly three times as great as Allmendinger’s, he’s a much better value.
Ryan Sieg (+2200) is the third and final driver to sweep the top 10 this season. Only one of these was a top-five, but that came in the most recent race on this track type when he was fourth at Talladega. Last year, he had only one top-10 in four pack racing starts. He came close on one other occasion at ‘Dega last fall and was 16th at Daytona, so he knows how to stay out of trouble.
Landon Cassill (+1200) finished fifth in the Nalley Cars 250 and followed that with another fifth at Talladega. He was 14th in the Daytona 500 support race, so he has completely reversed his fortune from 2021 when he had a best of 20th in four plate races. He needs a strong run this week to stop a four-race skid of finishes outside the top 10 and this is a track type that tends to pile misery on top of hardship, so be cautious.
Austin Hill (+700) has quietly amassed a streak of seven consecutive top-15 finishes. Five of these were top-10s and three were top-fives, so there is a lot of upside to starting him this week. Hill won at Daytona this spring and finished second in the Atlanta race, but his luck ran out in Talladega. It’s a fair bet he will rekindle that spark.
The other two winners of pack races this year deserve a little attention, but neither Ty Gibbs (+550), this spring’s Atlanta winner, nor Noah Gragson (+600) have been flawless – and as the second- and third-ranked drivers, there is not a lot of juice for the squeeze. For Gibbs, that is his only top-10 in a pack race. Gragson finished third at Daytona before running into trouble in the Peach State. He’s pulling double duty this week and extra track time is often helpful.
PointsBet Sportsbook is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. NJ, IA, IN, IL, CO, MI, VA, WV only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
2022 Xfinity Nalley Cars 250 [Atlanta 1]
Ag-Pro 300 [Talladega 1]
Beef for Dinner 300 [Daytona 1]
