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Line Moves
Very little movement occurred this week for the GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. With no practice and since starting position has very little correlation to how drivers finish, there was not a lot of reasons to change the PointsBet Sportsbook traders’ minds, so 100 to 200 points adjustments in the top 10 most likely had to do with the volume of bets placed.
No driver opened under 10/1 with Ryan Blaney (+1100) starting the week as the favorite. His +1000 odds for the outright win apparently failed to move the needle enough at the start of the week, so the pot was sweetened mildly. That puts him and seven other drivers within 500 points of one another with minor distinctions being the norm on a track where all cars run a practically even speed.
Joey Logano (+1200) remained unchanged during the week, but it is notable that his 12/1 odds are 300 points higher than what he showed for this race last year. The reason for that variation has a lot to do with the inconsistent momentum the No. 22 has shown in 2022.
Brad Keselowski (+1300) moved 100 points in the opposite direction from Blaney. His sweep of the top two positions impressed Smart Money more than anticipated, but he is still 200 points higher in 2022 with RFK Racing than he was last year with Team Penske.
Denny Hamlin (+1300) also had 100 points shaved from his total after a solid qualification run placed him seventh on the grid. Qualification means just as little for him as the rest of the field, but there is a distinct possibility bettors were waiting to see if he showed speed after his up and down, (mostly down), season-to-date.
Chase Elliott (+1400) was ranked among the top five on this week’s Cheat Sheet because of his recent show of strength on this track type. Our opinion didn’t move the needle whatsoever; in fact, he had 100 points added to his total after what must have been weak trading.
Bubba Wallace (+1400) and Austin Cindric (+1400) held steady with their lines. This is a huge difference for last fall’s winner, however, because he was 30/1 before last year’s edition of this race.
For Cindric, this is his first Cup effort on NASCAR’s biggest oval.
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Chase Briscoe (+1500) had 100 points shaved from his total after bettors noted his consistency during a six-race superspeedway career in which he has swept the top 20 in all but one race. He was 21st in the second Daytona event last year. Briscoe was listed at 90/1 for the 2021 Geico 500.
Two Hendrick Motorsports teammates, Kyle Larson (+1600) and William Byron (+1600) had 200 points taken off their potential payout after qualifying in the top 10.
One of the biggest movers this week was Daniel Hemric (+4000). He was a big unknown when the week began and as a result, PointsBet gave him 125/1 odds. Kaulig Racing fields fast cars but it was nevertheless surprising to watch him hold off most of the field in both rounds of qualification and sit on the inside of the second row. That obviously made the traders nervous.
To Hemric’s outside, Daniel Suarez (+3300) also saw a significant reduction of 2700 points. Anything can happen on a plate track and if these dark horses win, they have less potential of breaking the bank than before qualification.
One of our favorite dark horses at the start of the week saw a minimal change in his line. Corey LaJoie (+20000) actually went the wrong direction from our anticipated result. We thought he was a great value at 150/1 and now that he is 200/1, he deserves a modest follow-on bet.
Rank | Driver | Current | Opening | Change | 2021 Talladega 1 |
1. | 1100 | 1000 | 100 | 1000 | |
2. | 1200 | 1200 | 0 | 900 | |
3. | 1300 | 1400 | -100 | 1100 | |
3. | 1300 | 1400 | -100 | 725 | |
5. | 1400 | 1300 | 100 | 1100 | |
5. | 1400 | 1400 | 0 | 3000 | |
5. | 1400 | 1400 | 0 |
| |
8. | 1500 | 1600 | -100 | 9000 | |
9. | 1600 | 1600 | 0 | 1800 | |
9. | 1600 | 1800 | -200 | 1600 | |
9. | 1600 | 1800 | -200 | 2000 | |
| |||||
12. | 1800 | 2000 | -200 | 1800 | |
12. | 1800 | 2000 | -200 | 2000 | |
14. | 2000 | 2500 | -500 | 2500 | |
15. | 2200 | 3000 | -800 | 2200 | |
15. | 2200 | 2000 | 200 | 2000 | |
15. | 2200 | 2500 | -300 | 3300 | |
15. | 2200 | 2500 | -300 | 6000 | |
15. | 2200 | 2800 | -600 | 2500 | |
20. | 3000 | 3000 | 0 | 2000 | |
20. | 3000 | 3300 | -300 | 3300 | |
20. | 3000 | 3300 | -300 | 8000 | |
23. | 3300 | 6000 | -2700 | 8000 | |
24. | 3500 | 3500 | 0 | 6600 | |
25. | 4000 | 12500 | -8500 |
| |
25. | 4000 | 5000 | -1000 | 8000 | |
27. | 5000 | 6600 | -1600 | 15000 | |
28. | 6000 | 6000 | 0 | 6000 | |
28. | 6000 | 6600 | -600 | 12500 | |
30. | 9000 | 15000 | -6000 |
| |
31. | 10000 | 10000 | 0 |
| |
32. | 12500 | 35000 | -22500 |
| |
33. | 20000 | 12500 | 7500 |
| |
34. | 20000 | 15000 | 5000 | 12500 | |
35. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| |
35. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 30000 | |
35. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| |
35. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
35. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 40000 |
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