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Six winners in six weeks keeps the conversation alive about the possibility of more than 16 unique winners during the regular season. Last year, the season opened with seven different winners and NASCAR got to the cutoff race with only three spots open for drivers on points; one winning driver was not playoff eligible. By the end of the year, there were 16 winners.
What makes the conversation different this year is that three of the first six winners earned their first Cup trophy in 2022. One of these came in a carburetor-restricted superspeedway race, but the other two were on drivers’ tracks. Thirteen of last year’s winners have not yet found Victory Lane and they include some heavy hitters: Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano should all be primed to win.
There are also drivers who would have been classified as dark horses last year who are running extremely well. Tyler Reddick and Daniel Suarez seem to be on the precipice of winning. Kevin Harvick is determined to break his winless streak, while Brad Keselowski hopes to extend his streak of seasons with race wins to 12. The bottom line is there will be a lot more faces in Victory Lane before this season is in the books.
Top 10
1. Chase Elliott (Last week: 2) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 5
Weeks as #1: 1
Power Average: 8.65
Elliott did not win his eighth road course race last week, but given how much he struggled in practice and qualification with the NextGen car, his fourth-place result showed a lot of composure. That was his first top-five of the season, but with only one finish worse than 11th, he’s been as consistent as any driver in the field. Last year he was a little hit-or-miss on short tracks with three top-10s and three results outside that mark.
2. Ryan Blaney (Last week: 3) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 6
Power Average: 8.74
Blaney is still seeking his elusive win. In six races, he’s been sixth or better three times and outside the top 15 three times, which makes him a difficult driver to handicap. Then again, that same comment can be made about most of the field and once the marquee drivers figure out this new car, there will be some predictive value in how strong they ran in the middle stages of races.
3. Joey Logano (Last week: 1) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 6
Weeks as #1: 2
Power Average: 10.15
Logano was a pinball last week at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) and that describes his season. He’s run well enough to elevate him to the top five in the Power Rankings, but turned only three of those efforts into top-10s. Top-fives have been even more elusive. With only one this year and three in the last 18 races, (a rolling half season), this team is starting to hurt.
4. Martin Truex Jr. (Last week: 6) +2
Weeks in the top 10: 6
Power Average: 11.26
He didn’t make a lot of noise last week, but when the checkers waved Truex had his third top-10 in the past four weeks. Toss in a pair of top-15s to start the season and this team is developing a good set of notes. Better still, NASCAR is headed to a track on which he has three wins during a current streak of six top-fives so he could be the next new winner of 2022.
5. Alex Bowman (Last week: 11) +6
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Wins: 1 (Las Vegas 1)
Power Average: 11.51
Bowman was not blipping brightly on our radar before his Truck series run at COTA, but after nearly winning that race and finishing second in the Cup event, he will get some attention when we get to Sonoma Raceway in June. The problem is, that was his first road course top-five in his last 10 attempts.
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6. William Byron (Last week: 4) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 2
Wins: 1 (Atlanta 1)
Power Average: 11.58
Byron’s strong run and win at Atlanta Motor Speedway continues to pay dividends, but with the current volatility among the sixth through 15th drivers in this ranking it’s hard to predict his longevity on this list. Last week’s 12th-place finish at COTA was not overly impressive, but it was his third top-15 in the past four weeks. Better still, we are only a couple of weeks before Daytona International Speedway ages out of this formula and that was his worst finish of the season so far.
7. Ross Chastain (Last week: 15) +8
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Wins: 1 (COTA)
Power Average: 11.89
It took a while for Chastain to overcome a 40th-place finish in the Daytona 500 and 29th at Auto Club Speedway, but he finally made his way to the top-10 with an impressive eight-position jump. Chastain’s move on AJ Allmendinger at the end of the race was aggressive, but after finishing second or third in his last three races, there was no way he was going to pass up the opportunity to win.
8. Tyler Reddick (Last week: 12) +4
Weeks in the top 10: 2
Power Average: 12.23
Reddick is the most-likely driver to earn his first Cup win next. Last year there were three new winners added to the list with Michael McDowell taking the Daytona 500, Christopher Bell winning on the road course there, and Bubba Wallace taking Talladega. It’s rare to see four new winners in a season, but it happened as recently as 2011 and 2007. With the NextGen car, this could be a Modern Era record season.
9. Chase Briscoe (Last week: 8) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 3
Power Average: 12.72
Briscoe’s Phoenix Raceway win and a third-place finish in the Daytona 500 are keeping him in the top 10, but that may not last if he struggles at Richmond Raceway this week. His other four efforts this year ended 15th or worse with two in the 30s. Consistency is going to become important when the drivers figure out this new car and Briscoe needs to start developing it.
10. Kyle Larson (Last week: 5) -5
Weeks in the top 10: 6
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (Auto Club)
Power Average: 13.13
We can officially say that Larson is suffering from a hangover after last year’s championship. The sportsbook traders continue to highly value him and with a win at Auto Club, he is most likely locked into the playoffs, but he is now the lowest-ranked driver in points with a win to his credit. A couple of his four sub-25th-place results were due to unlucky circumstances, but that won’t matter if he continues to plunge down the order and there are more than 16 unique winners.
Drivers outside the top 10 with wins: Austin Cindric (Daytona 1)
Dropped from the Top 10
11. Kevin Harvick (Last week: 10) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 2
Power Average: 13.56
While Harvick has had some success on road courses in the past, we didn’t really expect him to run that well at COTA, so his 11th-place finish was encouraging. Unfortunately, there were three drivers who ran much better that had been outside the Power Rankings top 10 – and as we often point out, racing is zero sum game. It’s not time to panic yet because Harvick has two top-10s in his last three Richmond races.
12. Aric Almirola (Last week: 7) -5
Weeks in the top 10: 4
Power Average: 13.67
The bloom is officially off the rose. We wondered if Almirola could recover from the 12th-place finish at Phoenix that snapped a five-race, top-10 streak. His last two efforts have been outside the top 15, but the good news is that he has a pair of top-10s and a 14th in his last three Richmond attempts. He could bounce back, but there is a lot of competition to be in the Power Rankings top 10.
12. Kyle Busch (Last week: 9) -3
Weeks in the top 10: 4
Power Average: 13.67
Busch deserved a better finish than 28th last week. Unfortunately, that came on the heels of a 33rd at Atlanta and his difficulty winning in the past two seasons is starting to take on a new light. He’s one win away from tying Richard Petty for the longest winning streak of 18 seasons and it’s hard to imagine Joe Gibbs Racing won’t turn this ship around.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Outright Odds to win)
EchoPark Grand Prix, Ross Chastain (+1800)
QuikTrip 500, Atlanta: William Byron (+1400)
Ruoff Mortgage 500k, Phoenix: Chase Briscoe (+2800)
Pennzoil 400, Las Vegas: Alex Bowman (+2000)
Wise Power 400, Auto Club: Kyle Larson (+360)
Daytona 500, Daytona: Austin Cindric (+2800)
Power Average, Last 45 Days
This | Driver | Power | Last | Difference |
1. | 8.65 | 2 | 1 | |
2. | 8.74 | 3 | 1 | |
3. | 10.15 | 1 | -2 | |
4. | 11.26 | 6 | 2 | |
5. | 11.51 | 11 | 6 | |
6. | 11.58 | 4 | -2 | |
7. | 11.89 | 15 | 8 | |
8. | 12.23 | 12 | 4 | |
9. | 12.72 | 8 | -1 | |
10. | 13.13 | 5 | -5 | |
|
|
|
|
|
11. | 13.56 | 10 | -1 | |
12. | 13.67 | 7 | -5 | |
12. | 13.67 | 9 | -4 | |
14. | 13.75 | 16 | 2 | |
15. | 14.03 | 14 | -1 | |
16. | 15.00 | 13 | -3 | |
17. | 15.88 | 20 | 3 | |
18. | 16.34 | 21 | 3 | |
19. | 16.68 | 19 | 0 | |
20. | 16.71 | 17 | -3 | |
21. | 18.12 | 22 | 1 | |
22. | 18.15 | 18 | -4 | |
22. | 18.15 | 23 | 0 | |
24. | 18.53 | 25 | 1 | |
25. | 19.56 | 24 | -1 | |
26. | 19.90 | 28 | 2 | |
27. | 20.82 | 31 | 4 | |
28. | 20.84 | 26 | -2 | |
29. | 21.31 | 29 | 0 | |
30. | 22.30 | 30 | 0 | |
31. | 23.23 | 27 | -4 | |
32. | 23.97 | 32 | 0 | |
33. | 25.23 | 33 | 0 | |
34. | 25.94 | 35 | 1 | |
35. | 26.36 | 34 | -1 | |
36. | 26.50 | 36 | 0 | |
37. | 28.16 | 39 | 2 | |
38. | 29.23 | 38 | 0 | |
39. | 29.64 | 40 | 1 | |
40. | 29.75 |
| NA | |
41. | 29.97 | 37 | -4 | |
42. | 30.07 | 41 | -1 | |
43. | 30.31 | 43 | 0 | |
44. | 31.00 | 42 | -2 | |
45. | 34.75 |
| NA | |
46. | 37.25 |
| NA | |
47. | 39.00 |
| NA |
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After 2022, Week 5 [Atlanta 1]
2021, Week 6 [Atlanta 1]
Week 14 [COTA]
