Alex Bowman became the eighth different winner in the first nine NASCAR Cup races, confounding bookmakers and continuing to make it difficult for handicappers to get a clear picture of who will and won’t be in this year’s playoffs.
Entering the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway, he was one of nine drivers who won in 2020 who had not yet scored a victory in 2021. But he was not necessarily one of the top performers that everyone assumed would win before the playoffs. Kevin Harvick (win nine wins last year), Denny Hamlin (seven), Chase Elliott (five), and Brad Keselowski (four) are still on the outside looking in. So is Kyle Busch – who had only one victory last year.
With each passing week, the likelihood of there being at least 16 unique winners grows; if there is a 17th, one of the winning drivers will not make the playoffs. But even if that doesn’t happen, the available slots open for points’ contenders continues to dwindle.
Talladega Superspeedway is next on the schedule. Anything can happen there and if another winner from deep in the points is victorious, the pressure mounts as the potential opportunities to shrinks to 16.
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Top 10
1. Denny Hamlin (last week: 2) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 10
Weeks as #1: 4
Cup wins: 0
Power Average: 3.33
Last week after the Toyota Owners 400, Hamlin said he’d rather be where he is (contending for wins each week) than where Bowman was (standing in Victory Lane). If you believe that, we have a bridge to sell. But even if he was salving a fresh wound of heading into Week 10 winless, what he said is actually true. There is no one in the field with more strength or momentum than Hamlin. His win will come and probably sooner rather than later.
2. Martin Truex Jr. (last week: 1) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 8
Weeks as #1: 1
Cup wins: 2 (Phoenix, Martinsville 1)
Power Average: 5.12
Truex did not fall down the order this week as much as he was passed by Hamlin. His raw Power Ranking number actually barely changed from 5.11 to 5.12. He was nearly everyone’s favorite to win a third race and for much of the Toyota Owners 400 he certainly seemed capable. He lacked a little on the short run, but crew chiefs are left to guess on how races will play out. Compounding the matter is the fact that we have not yet gotten back to a conventional schedule with practice and qualification.
3. Ryan Blaney (last week: 5) +2
Weeks in the top 10: 4
Cup wins: 1 (Atlanta 1)
Power Average: 5.30
Considering how bad Blaney has been at Richmond during his career, an 11th-place finish last week was not bad. He still does not have a top-10 on this track and it still ranks among his worst – but he finally got his first Richmond top-10 and was in contention for a solid finish nearly the entire race. That is the good news. The bad news is that he still has only two top-fives this year and he is going to have to step up to maintain his ranking.
4. William Byron (last week: 3) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 4
Cup wins: 1 (Homestead)
Power Average: 6.22
Byron continues to do his best ‘little engine that could’ impression. He is not always the driver we first think of for a top-10, but that is rapidly changing as he now has seven consecutive single digit results. Winning can jumpstart momentum and that is precisely what happened at Homestead-Miami Speedway early this season. His fourth-place finish at Martinsville Speedway and a seventh last week is establishing the No. 24 as a flat track threat.
5. Joey Logano (last week: 6) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 10
Weeks as #1: 1
Cup wins: 1 (Bristol dirt)
Power Average: 7.05
Logano thought he was the driver to beat on the final short run to the Richmond checkers last week. He had a better car than Hamlin right after the green flag waved, but he did not take Bowman into consideration. His runner-up finish in the Toyota Owners 400 is his fifth top-10 in the last six races. Like Hamlin, he’s happy with the way the team is performing. He’s in a better spot, however, with his Bristol Motor Speedway Dirt Track win to help get him into the playoffs.
6. Kyle Larson (last week: 4) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 9
Weeks as #1: 1
Cup wins: 1 (Las Vegas 1)
Power Average: 8.05
Last week may have been the worst performance we’ve seen out of Larson all year. He lost a lap when a part-time spun a veteran during the middle of green flag stops – but in NASCAR’s era of ‘no-driver-left-behind’ wave arounds and free passes, Larson should have been able to get back in contention. Instead, he lost another lap on the track. It’s not time to panic just yet as he is still the best Hendrick Motorsports driver in the field.
7. Kyle Busch (last week: 10) +3
Weeks in the top 10: 9
Cup wins: 0
Power Average: 10.32
Last week we predicted Busch would barely finish inside the top 10. He was eighth at Richmond, which is his third consecutive top-10 on paved ovals. It is not enough to lessen his frustration and it is definitely not enough to cause us to start predicting he will win in the next few weeks in non-lottery events. But it is a step in the right direction.
8. Chase Elliott (last week: 8)
Weeks in the top 10: 10
Weeks as #1: 3
Cup wins: 0
Power Average: 10.64
While we have never bought into the hype for the 2020 Cup champions, frankly we didn’t think it would take this long for Elliott to find Victory Lane. He is now the only Hendrick Motorsports driver without a win. Last week his car looked numb as he was barely able to maintain whatever position he was handed after a pit stop. There are still several road course races during the regular season and he should win one of those – but if he cannot find a good setup for unrestricted ovals, he won’t get far in the playoffs.
9. Brad Keselowski (last week: 7) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 8
Cup wins: 0
Power Average: 11.08
Keselowski’s performance in the past two weeks has been surprising. He was not particularly strong at Martinsville in the first two stages, but his 33rd-place finish was a factor of a wreck that was not his fault. Last week, he employed the wrong strategy at the wrong time and lost a lap that he was never able to regain. The bottom line is that he has not scored a top-10 in four straight races as the series heads to a wild card track. Kez has a tendency to end his aero-restricted superspeedway races on a hook.
10. Alex Bowman (last week: 9) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 3
Cup wins: 1 (Richmond 1)
Power Average: 11.60
The sense of relief felt by Bowman last week was palpable. His first thoughts were with a crewman lost in a highway accident during the off-season, but there was no glimmer of enthusiasm in his post-race interview on the Richmond frontstretch. It remains to be seen if this victory will give him the same kind of momentum that the Homestead win provided teammate Byron.
Other drivers with wins, not among the top 10: Michael McDowell (Daytona 1) and Christopher Bell (Daytona road)
Big Movers Outside the top 10
11. Christopher Bell (last week: 16) +5
Weeks in the top 10: 7
Cup wins: 1 (Daytona road)
Power Average: 12.05
Bell has jumped 10 positions in the past two weeks. In part that is owed to Homestead’s 20th-place result falling aging out of the 45-day formula we use to set the rankings, but his four top-10s in the last six races doesn’t hurt matters any. Now we head to Talladega where a ‘Big One’ crash can wipe out momentum in the blink of an eye, so we will have to wait and see if he can crack the top 10.
16. Chris Buescher (last week: 13) -3
Weeks in the top 10: 0
Cup wins: 0
Power Average: 16.56
We had high hopes for Buescher last week. He entered the Toyota Owners 400 with three consecutive top-15s that included a top-10 on the 1.5-mile Atlanta Motor Speedway. A 25th at Richmond dropped him three positions, but if he draws a good number from the Talladega lottery, he could rise again because he has seven top-20s in his last eight attempts.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Outright Odds to win)
Toyota Owners 400, Alex Bowman (+3000)
Blue-Emu 500, Martin Truex Jr. (+475)
Food City Dirt Race, Joey Logano (+2000)
QuikTrip 500, Atlanta: Ryan Blaney (+1500)
Instacart 500k, Phoenix: Martin Truex Jr. (+1100)
Pennzoil 400, Las Vegas: Kyle Larson (+900)
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Power Average, Last 45 Days
This | Driver | Power | Last | Difference |
1. | 3.33 | 2 | 1 | |
2. | 5.12 | 1 | -1 | |
3. | 5.30 | 5 | 2 | |
4. | 6.22 | 3 | -1 | |
5. | 7.05 | 6 | 1 | |
6. | 8.05 | 4 | -2 | |
7. | 10.32 | 10 | 3 | |
8. | 10.64 | 8 | 0 | |
9. | 11.08 | 7 | -2 | |
10. | 11.60 | 9 | -1 | |
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11. | 12.05 | 16 | 5 | |
12. | 12.19 | 11 | -1 | |
13. | 12.33 | 14 | 1 | |
14. | 12.37 | 12 | -2 | |
15. | 14.97 | 14 | -1 | |
16. | 16.56 | 13 | -3 | |
17. | 18.31 | 20 | 3 | |
18. | 18.37 | 17 | -1 | |
19. | 18.54 | 19 | 0 | |
20. | 18.94 | 18 | -2 | |
21. | 20.03 | 21 | 0 | |
22. | 20.32 | 22 | 0 | |
23. | 22.26 | 29 | 6 | |
24. | 22.47 | 25 | 1 | |
25. | 23.20 | 24 | -1 | |
26. | 24.06 | 27 | 1 | |
27. | 24.09 | 28 | 1 | |
28. | 24.42 | 26 | -2 | |
29. | 24.57 | 23 | -6 | |
30. | 26.20 | 30 | 0 | |
31. | 27.00 | 31 | 0 | |
32. | 28.59 | 34 | 2 | |
33. | 30.00 | 33 | 0 | |
34. | 31.00 | 32 | -2 | |
35. | 31.74 | 35 | 0 | |
36. | Mike Marlar | 31.80 | 36 | 0 |
37. | Shane Golobic | 32.20 | 37 | 0 |
38. | 32.26 | 38 | 0 | |
39. | 32.42 | 39 | 0 | |
40. | 32.63 | 42 | 2 | |
41. | Chris Windom | 33.60 | 40 | -1 |
42. | 34.39 | 43 | 1 | |
43. | 34.56 | 41 | -2 | |
44. | 34.74 | 44 | 0 | |
45. | 36.23 | 45 | 0 | |
46. | 37.26 | 46 | 0 |
POWER RANKING AFTER MARTINSVILLE 1
STAGE PRESENCE
HANDICAPPING NASCAR WITH DRIVER RATING
