In 2021 the Ravens tried to ride Tyler Huntley to the NFL postseason after losing Lamar Jackson in a Week 14 matchup against the Browns. Forced to go to Huntley, the then 8-5 Ravens would lose four straight contests, finishing with an 8-9 record and missing the playoffs.
This season, a similar situation presented itself and bared a slightly different outcome. The Ravens lost Jackson during a Week 13 contest against the Broncos but managed to go 3-3 down the stretch to finish the year with a 10-7 record, this time making the playoffs as the sixth seed. At this time, Jackson is trending down and Huntley is dealing with injuries to both his wrist and shoulder. A playoff start by undrafted rookie free agent quarterback Anthony Brown would spell anything but optimism, although it’s worth noting the Ravens averaged just 13 points per game with Huntley under center -- as RotoPat points out in his postseason rankings article.
For the Bengals, their Super Bowl window doesn’t appear to be closing anytime soon, unless Joe Burrow unexpectedly retires.
Joe Burrow was asked about a potential Bengals window to win after today’s game. His response: “The window is my whole career…Our window is always open.”
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) January 8, 2023
Boss answer. pic.twitter.com/AlNJ7q4d41
Burrow and company will look to make a second-straight run to the Super Bowl, and have as good a chance as any team at making a run with a dynamic receiving duo led by Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Facing a Ravens team that’s expected to be rolling out a backup quarterback in the Wild Card Round should all but ensure them an appearance in the Divisional Round next week.
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
Before we jump into some of my favorite plays of the week, don’t forget that Sunday night’s matchup between the Bengals and Ravens is free to watch on NBC, so be sure to tune in. And don’t forget to play SN7 on the NBC Sports Predictor app, which is FREE, and offers you a chance to win or split a $100,000 guaranteed jackpot! The app offers other free-to-play games, including contests for the Premier League, MLB, NASCAR, IndyCar and College Football. Download it now and enjoy!
Joe Burrow Passing Yards
in two games against the Ravens this season, Burrow has thrown for 215 and 217 yards, respectively. A stout Ravens defense that ranked 11th in passing DVOA during the season (-2.5%) held Burrow to his second and third-lowest QBRs on the season, while surrendering just two touchdown passes.
Burrow’s low-passing yards output could also be attributed to a run-heavy Ravens offense (51%) that also ranks near the bottom of the league in neutral pace of play.
On the year, Burrow is averaging almost 280 passing yards per game but has fallen well below that against a familiar foe. If Baltimore is to have any shot at winning this game on Sunday, they’ll need to control the pace and try once again to keep Burrow on the sideline. With a mostly healthy secondary, the Ravens should also have the right pieces intact to limit Chase and Higgins.
In a game that I don’t expect to be too competitive, I think Burrow could once again be held below his 2022 per game average.
Pick: Joe Burrow <230 passing yards
Joe Mixon Total Yards
Much like Burrow, the Ravens have also done a good job at limiting Joe Mixon. The Bengals’ veteran running back rushed for 210-814-7 on the season while also catching a career-high 60 passes for 441 yards and another two scores.
In two games against the Ravens, Mixon averaged 78 yards per game, which included eight receptions for 61 yards. The Ravens allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs on the season (43.6) but also allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game (92.1). In addition to that, the Bengals were one of the least run-oriented teams in the league, rushing at a league-low 35% rate in neutral game scripts. When playing with any sort of lead, their rush rate remained exactly the same.
The Bengals ranked fourth in the league in rushing DVOA (7.5%), but that seldom mattered the first time these two teams met. Mixon averaged 16.5 touches per game against the Ravens this season and should see plenty of opportunities in the Wild Card Round. However, the Ravens’ defense has proven stout throughout much of the season, especially after trading for middle linebacker Roquan Smith. I like MIxon to have a solid day in this one, but don’t anticipate any kind of earth-shattering performance.
Pick: Joe Mixon 75-89 total yards
Mark Andrews Receiving Yards
The Ravens opted to sideline Mark Andrews in last week’s loss to the Bengals, but rookie Isaiah Likely went off for a season-high eight catches for 103 yards, showing great chemistry with rookie Anthony Brown.
With a short week to turn things around, and a receiving corps largely devoid of talent, it’s possible Andrews could enjoy similar production to what Likely saw in Week 18.
The Bengals allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season (55.0) and surrendered 10-89-1 to Andrews earlier this season. Andrews has averaged 53.9 yards per game against the Bengals over his career and has averaged 107 yards per game in their last two meetings.
If Andrews can’t get things going for the Ravens, they stand little chance of winning on Sunday. Whether it’s Huntley or Brown under center, I’d expect them to funnel targets Andrews’ way, giving their best players a chance to win the game with Lamar Jackson (likely) sidelined.
Pick: Mark Andrews 75-84 receiving yards
