The Chiefs had the luxury of staying home during the Wild Card Round. These things tend to happen to good teams. Now the real fun begins.
A come-from-behind win over the Chargers last weekend has the Jaguars on the road for the AFC Divisional Round. With a shot at an AFC Championship game on the line, all Trevor Lawrence and company need to do is pull off a win over the same Chiefs team that beat them 27-17 earlier this season.
For the Chiefs, it’s time for yet another Super Bowl run. Deep postseason runs are now the yearly bar for the Chiefs, who have thrived since naming Patrick Mahomes as their starter in 2018. Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce (110-1338-12) have combined to form one of the more dynamic QB/TE combos we’ve seen since Brady/Gronk, with Kelce having gone for 1,000+ yards in seven straight seasons.
It goes without saying that we will have a battle of two young, dynamic signal-callers when these two teams square off on Saturday afternoon.
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
Before we jump into some of my favorite plays of the week, don’t forget that Saturday night’s matchup between the Chiefs and Jaguars is free to watch on NBC, so be sure to tune in. And don’t forget to play SN7 on the NBC Sports Predictor app, which is FREE, and offers you a chance to win or split a $100,000 guaranteed jackpot! The app offers other free-to-play games, including contests for the Premier League, MLB, NASCAR, IndyCar and College Football. Download it now and enjoy!
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
In last week’s win over the Chargers, the Jaguars surrendered 273 yards and one touchdown to Justin Herbert. Although it’s worth noting that five turnovers by the Jaguars gave Herbert and the offense several short fields to work with.
Now Mahomes gets his second crack at the Jaguars after throwing for 331-4-1 against them in a 27-17, Week 10 win at Arrowhead Stadium. Likely on track to win his second MVP, Mahomes has helped lead a Chiefs offense that ranked first in both points per game (29.2) and yards per game (413.6) during the regular season and did so while throwing at a league-high 64.8% on early downs. The Bills ranked second in that category at 58.5%.
Jacksonville hasn’t exactly excelled at stopping the pass this season.
Defensively, the Jaguars allowed just over 20 points per game, but allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (238.5) and ranked 30th in DVOA against the pass (19.7%) per Football Outsiders.
Mahomes surpassing 300 passing yards in this game feels like a near lock, but will he hit the 360+ yard max offered on the NBC Sports Predictor app? Mahomes has hit that mark just three times this season and perhaps even more impressively, did so in three wins. The Chiefs won those games by an average of 15.7 points per game.
While we know Mahomes is more than capable of breaking the predictor on any given week, I’ll pick him to go just below the 360-yard max here.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes 320-339 passing yards
Trevor Lawrence Passing Touchdowns
I don’t go with the passing touchdown prop often in this article, but the Chiefs have surrendered more passing touchdowns this season (33) than any other team in the league and allowed the 15th-most passing yards per game (220.9).
The Lawerence yardage prop feels a bit tricky to navigate, mainly because I still can’t wrap my head around how he managed to throw for just 288 yards in a come-from-behind win where his team trailed 27-7 at halftime.
However, I do like the touchdown numbers in a game I expect to be a shootout.
The Chiefs allowed 1.9 touchdown passes per game this season and allowed three or more touchdowns in four games. There were only five games in which their opponent threw fewer than two touchdowns.
In his last game against the Chiefs, Lawrence threw for 240-2-0. I think he gets at least two here, but I’m willing to take a shot on him getting a third, to get off the safer number that’s more likely to entice the public.
Pick: Trevor Lawrence 3+ touchdown passes
Travis Etienne Total Yards
As much as I want to believe in Etienne’s receiving talent (it’s there), the Jaguars have targeted him three or fewer times in every game since Week 8. His receiving line over that span was 21-165-0. Not exactly great.
Most of the work Etienne has done this season has come exclusively on the ground. He rushed for 220-1125-5 in the regular season, rushing for 100+ yards in three of his final four games. In last week’s win over the Chargers, he still managed to rush for more than 100 yards despite the fact that his team trailed for a significant portion of the game.
The Chiefs allowed 107.2 rushing yards per game this season and ranked 15th in rushing DVOA (-6.9%). Offensively, Jacksonville ranked 20th in rushing DVOA (-7.5%). Whether or not Etienne reaches 100+ rushing yards is anybody’s guess, but if the last few months are any indicator, he won’t offer much in receiving yards when it comes to this total yards prop.
I like him to flirt with 100 yards on the ground, and think he’ll be good for at least one or two catches to pass the century mark on the day.
Pick: Travis Etienne 95-109 total yards
