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The Commanders have made an unprecedented run as of late. After trading a handful of picks for Carson Wentz this offseason, Washington watched him go 2-4 through six games before losing him to an injury and being forced back into the Taylor Heinicke experience. In seven games under Heinicke, the Commanders have found a way to go 5-1-1, forcing their way into the playoff conversation after appearing to be well-removed from the playoff conversation just two months ago. A run-heavy approach led by Brian Robinson, coupled with a stout defense that ranks ninth in total DVOA (-6.2%) and fourth in yards allowed per game (310.5) have turned the Commanders into a team nobody wants to face in the final four weeks of the season.
Meanwhile, the Giants, who were once (sort of) good, have gone 1-3-1 over their last five games and are 7-5-1 on the season. A 48-22 loss to the Eagles last week only amplified the concerns this team has had on offense all season, especially at the quarterback position. Despite Saquon Barkley‘s (251-1083-8) best efforts to save the team, he can only do so much to help the Giants when they find themselves in negative game scripts -- which has been a common theme as of late. The Giants are allowing the seventh-most yards per game to opposing offenses (365.8) and have been outscored 143-104 over their last five games.
Now facing the Commanders on the road and in prime time, the Giants will look to get right, while Washington will look to ride their hot hand for another week.
Before we jump into some of my favorite plays of the week, don’t forget that Sunday night’s matchup between the Commanders and Giants is free to watch on NBC, so be sure to tune in. And don’t forget to play SN7 on the NBC Sports Predictor app, which is FREE, and offers you a chance to win or split a $100,000 guaranteed jackpot! The app offers other free-to-play games, including contests for the Premier League, MLB, NASCAR, IndyCar and College Football. Download it now and enjoy!
Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards
In Week 12 against the Giants, Taylor Heinicke miraculously threw for 275 yards. He’s thrown for 200+ yards in four of his seven starts this season. While Heinicke’s 275/2 line looks great in the box score, it’s worth noting 110 of those passing yards came on Washington’s final two drives of regulation, plus overtime -- which we shouldn’t bank on happening this season. Of those 110 yards, 90 of them came on the game-tying drive Washington needed just to force overtime.
The 41 attempts Heinicke had in that game were his most in a game this season and came after four-straight games in which he threw less than 30 times.
Since Heinicke took over in Week 7, Washington has orchestrated its offense through the running game. The Commanders rank 31st in early down pass frequency over that span (39.0%) and have a pass frequency over expected of -9.0%.
With Brian Robinson now healthy and playing well, the Commanders have no need to force Heinicke into situations he’s incapable of thriving in. With the Commanders currently favored by 4.5 points, there’s reason to believe this is a game they’ll be able to control, limiting Heinicke and his pass attempts.
Pick: 180-199 passing yards
Daniel Jones Total Yards
The last time these two teams met, Daniel Jones threw for 200 yards and one touchdown while rushing a season-high 12 times for 71 yards -- his third-highest rushing total in a game this season. Jones’ high-volume rushing day may have come as a direct result of Saquon Barkley‘s 18-63-1 performance. Outside of a 21-yard run and a 13-yard rushing touchdown, Barkley was largely dominated by Washington’s run defense all day, as Jones went on to lead the G-Men in rushing in the 20-20 tie.
Now heading to Washington, Jones and the Giants will get a Commanders defense that ranks fourth in run DVOA (-19.2%) in prime time, with both teams fighting for a potential playoff spot.
Washington’s pass defense also ranks 14th in DVOA (3.4%), and Jones’ last game against them marked just the fifth time all season that he’s thrown for 200+ yards in a game. Whether or not Jones throws for 200+ yards again this week is anybody’s guess, but the total yards prop here allows us a little bit of leeway.
Jones has ripped off double-digit carries in four games this season and has already posted career-highs in carries (95), rushing yards (548) and rushing touchdowns through 13 games. Averaging just over 42 rushing yards per game, I expect Jones to make a few plays on the ground this weekend and find a way to get his total yards over the 200-yard mark one way or another.
Pick: 190-219 total yards
Brian Robinson Rushing Yards
A bet against Heinicke is an automatic bet in favor of Brian Robinson. Washington’s rookie running back has rushed for 563 yards and two touchdowns on 147 carries since his Week 5 debut and has gone for 86+ yards in three of his last four games. In Week 13 against the Giants, he rushed 21 times for 96 yards, leading all Washington runners in attempts and yards. Antonio Gibson was second on the team with a 9-39-0 line.
Washington loves to run the ball, and are further incentivized to do so with Heinicke under center. Having garnered 49% of the team’s rushing attempts since Week 5, Robinson should once again be in line for a high-volume day.
The Giants’ run defense ranks 31st in DVOA (10.7%) and are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (149.7). If Washington is able to hold a lead at home and keep the game on the ground, I expect Robinson to run to his second-career 100-yard rushing game.
Pick: 100+ rushing yards
