It’s been a week since I last wrote an article. It’s been a little under 72 hours since we watched as Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered a tragic injury against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. Monday’s injury to Hamlin put not just football, but life and its fragility into perspective as we watched one of the many modern-day gladiators we cheer for on a weekly basis suddenly face life-threatening circumstances that extend well beyond the physical trauma they and we have allowed ourselves to become comfortable with all in the name of sport.
Thankfully, the news on Hamlin has been promising as of late. While he still has a long road to recovery, we’re thankful to know what we saw on Monday didn’t end with a far more catastrophic outcome.
As we head into Week 18, I think it’s important to remember this week and what we saw -- both on Monday and the days that followed. The humanity of players and coaches is often forgotten as we mindlessly root for our favorite team, fantasy teams, or simply our wallets to win the day/week. While rooting for the outcomes that most conveniently suit us, it’s not uncommon to see decency get temporarily cast aside. I don’t have to elaborate, you know it when you see it.
What happened on Monday night appears to have put a lot of things into perspective for a lot of people. I hope that it never takes another event like what we saw on Monday to re-introduce humanity into this sport we love and that at the end of every game/season, we can continue to remember under every helmet is a person every bit as human as you and me.
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— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 3, 2023
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
The Packers (8-8) and Lions (8-8) prepare to face off on Sunday Night in a game that could have playoff implications for both teams. While the Packers’ playoff chances will be on the line no matter what, the Lions will be scoreboard-watching. Detroit’s playoff hopes first hinge on the Week 18 matchup between the Seahawks and Rams. A Seahawks win will knock Detroit from playoff contention before they even suit up on Sunday night. However, a loss by the Seahawks means the Lions can make the postseason with a win over the Packers.
With one week of regular season football left to go, here are some of my picks for this week’s SN7 contest.
Before we jump into some of my favorite plays of the week, don’t forget that Sunday night’s matchup between the Packers and Lions is free to watch on NBC, so be sure to tune in. And don’t forget to play SN7 on the NBC Sports Predictor app, which is FREE, and offers you a chance to win or split a $100,000 guaranteed jackpot! The app offers other free-to-play games, including contests for the Premier League, MLB, NASCAR, IndyCar and College Football. Download it now and enjoy!
Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards
Green Bay’s future Hall of Fame quarterback has a chance to lead his team to an unprecedented playoff berth. After starting the season 4-8, the Packers have ripped off four straight wins to move to 8-8, and are one win away from the playoffs. A loss could signal the end of Rodgers’ time in Green Bay -- something that feels under-discussed heading into the week.
During the Packers’ four-game win streak, Rodgers has thrown for 808-4-2. While he hasn’t exactly obliterated opposing defenses, he’s played well enough to put the Packers in the position they find themselves in this week. The Packers are throwing at a 54% rate in neutral game scripts over that span and have benefitted of a home atmosphere in two of these games.
The last time these two teams met, the Lions came away winners in a 15-9 game, allowing 291 yards and one touchdown to Rodgers while forcing him into three interceptions -- his most interceptions in a game since 2017.
Detroit’s defense has been anything been perfect this season. They fired defensive backs coach Aubrey Pleasant back on Halloween, and have allowed the third-most passing yards per game this season (249.4) behind only the Titans and Vikings. At the time this article was written, the Packers had just one receiver listed on their injury report -- rookie Christian Watson (hip) who played through the same injury last week and was limited in Wednesday’s practice.
Green Bay’s playoff hopes more or less rest on Rodgers’ arm. Sure, it takes a team effort to get there, but it’s hard to imagine coach Matt LaFleur letting any player other than Rodgers decide how the Packers’ offense rolls on Sunday night. After going for nearly 300 yards in a close game earlier this season, I like Rodgers to put on a heroic performance against a porous defense while leading the Packers into the postseason.
Pick: Aaron Rodgers 280+ passing yards
Aaron Jones Total Yards
Even in his age-28 season, Aaron Jones continues to be one of the best all-purpose backs in the league. Green Bay’s RB1 has rushed 201 times for 1,073 yards and two touchdowns on the season and has also caught a career-high 56 passes for 375 yards and another five scores.
His 1,448 yards from scrimmage are just 110 yards shy of the 1,558 he went for in 2019 while racking up 19 total touchdowns. Jones is averaging 90.5 total yards per game but was bottled up by the Lions in Week 9, totaling just 45 yards while failing to find the end zone.
As they’ve struggled to defend the pass, the Lions also rank near the bottom of the league in run defense. Their 3.7% rushing DVOA ranks 27th in the league, which closely aligns with the 149.3 rushing yards per game they’re allowing -- which ranks fourth-most in the league.
It’s safe to say I don’t expect the Lions to lockdown Jones as we saw in Week 9. For starters, this game isn’t in Detroit. Secondly, the frigid cold temperatures of Lambeau Field should make this game ripe for Jones, who rushed 14 times for 111 yards in last week’s win over the Vikings.
Jones’ receiving upside has been limited over the last few weeks, as he’s managed just four receptions for 11 total yards. The Lions are allowing the fewest receiving yards per game to opposing running backs, so there’s no guarantee we see much of a bounce back in Jones’ receiving totals. Still, I like him to be a key contributor at frosty Lambeau, and take advantage of a Lions defense that’s allowing 100+ rushing yards in four of its last five games.
Pick: Aaron Jones 105-119 total yards.
Jared Goff Passing Yards
One of the better quarterbacks in the league this season, Goff has surprised everyone with 4,214 yards, 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions. With several solid performances on his resumé this season, His 137-2-1 line against Green Bay marked his fewest yards in any performance on the year. Oddly (or perhaps not), Week 9 was also the last time Goff threw an interception. While leading the Lions to a 6-2 record in their last eight games, Goff has thrown for 2,173 yards, 15 touchdowns and no interceptions. His lone turnover came on a lost fumble in Week 10.
As one might expect, Goff’s high-level of play isn’t just impressive on a micro level. His quarterbacking has helped rank the Lions’ passing attack fifth in DVOA (29.1%) and sixth in passing yards per game (253.9). He’ll face a Packers defense that’s 10th in DVOA against the pass (-5.1%) and fresh off shutting down the Vikings in a 41-17 win. The Packers have also forced turnovers at an impressive rate, intercepting opposing quarterbacks nine times during their four-game win streak.
Detroit’s strength is its passing attack, which was curiously shut down the last time these two sides met. While I like Goff to improve on the 137 yards he threw for in Week 9, the prop for this matchup feels rather generous.
The Packers have allowed just one 300+ yard passer all season and have allowed 164.0 passing yards per game in their last two home contests. Goff could still have a solid week while falling below the lowest passing yards prop on the predictor this week.
Pick: Jared Goff <230 passing yards
