Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
The fine folks at NBC were kind enough to pivot to a more meaningful game this Sunday night. While the Ravens have already secured a spot in the playoffs, the AFC North is still very much on the line. The same can be said of Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes, as the Steelers look to rally over the final two weeks to earn a playoff berth in Kenny Pickett‘s rookie season.
Barring a miracle, it appears Lamar Jackson (knee) will miss a fourth-straight game this season, giving way for Tyler Huntley to make yet another start. But J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards should be the primary leads on Sunday night assuming game script allows it. Since Dobbins and Edwards have returned, the Ravens have used a run-heavy approach to win three of their last four games,
For the Steelers, head coach Mike Tomlin has an outside chance to continue his streak of 16-straight seasons without a losing record if he and the Steelers can win their final two games to close out the season. It’s been a year of growing pains for the Steelers as they usher in a new quarterback who may or may not be the long-term answer, and running back Najee Harris (227-843-6) has been anything but the stud they were hoping for when they selected him with the 24th overall pick in last year’s draft.
Before we jump into some of my favorite plays of the week, don’t forget that Sunday night’s matchup between the Ravens and Steelers is free to watch on NBC, so be sure to tune in. And don’t forget to play SN7 on the NBC Sports Predictor app, which is FREE, and offers you a chance to win or split a $100,000 guaranteed jackpot! The app offers other free-to-play games, including contests for the Premier League, MLB, NASCAR, IndyCar and College Football. Download it now and enjoy!
Tyler Huntley Total Yards
We’re less than a year removed from some delusional Ravens fans clamoring for Tyler Huntley to be the team’s starter of the future.
If you’re one of the people who thought it was funny before, then you’ll agree with me that it looks hilarious now. Huntley, who I have nothing personal against, has been a serviceable quarterback at best since the Ravens lost Jackson to his knee injury in Week 13.
Over that four-game span, Huntley has ranked 24th in adjusted completion percent (72.9%), 32nd in YPA (5.7) and 21st out of 25 qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play (-0.070).
Quarterback EPA Weeks 13-16
RBSDM.com
Under Huntley, the Ravens have yet to score more than 17 points in a game but have managed a 2-1 record in his three starts. One of those wins came in a 16-14 matchup against the Steelers in which Huntley attempted just 12 passes while the Ravens lead on the ground game to the tune of 42 carries for 215 yards and one touchdown.
Baltimore has done its best to keep Huntley from throwing. In their two wins, he’s chucked the ball a combined 29 times for 203 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions.
The Ravens are currently 2.5-point favorites against the Steelers and get this matchup at home. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks sixth in the league in rushing DVOA at -14.6%, but that didn’t stop the Ravens from imposing their will the last time these two met.
If this game stays close, I’d anticipate the Ravens handing the ball off as often as they can with their top two backs healthy. While Huntley possesses some rushing upside (36-113-1), he’s rushed for 41 yards or fewer in each of his last four games. We’re getting some very low numbers for Huntley’s total yards prop, but if Baltimore opts to keep the ball on the ground, I could see him being on the lower end of these totals.
Pick: Tyler Huntley 150-169 Total Yards
Mark Andrews Receiving Yards
One primary cause for Baltimore’s lack of offensive production has been the unprecedented decline of Mark Andrews. Fantasy managers and Ravens fans alike have spent the last several weeks tilting over Andrews’ inability to make big plays or simply find the end zone.
Andrews hasn’t gone for 100+ yards since a Week 6 matchup against the Giants, which also happens to be the last time he scored. Over the last eight games, he’s posted a meager 25 catches for 292 yards and no touchdowns. If I didn’t know any better, I’d assume those numbers were fabricated by somebody in a dynasty league hoping to poach Andrews from me on the cheap.
Still, his lack of production has been a frustrating thing to watch this season, and it may continue as long as Huntley is under center and the Ravens can continue in their run-heavy ways.
Andrews has averaged just 36.5 yards per game in his last eight weeks, but that’s including a zero-yard performance in Week 7 and a 17-yard game in Week 14 -- which feel like massive outliers even with his underwhelming play as of late.
He’s still averaging 5.9 targets per game and is seventh among qualified tight ends in aDOT (9.8). A few long plays for the No. 1 option in Baltimore’s passing game should allow Andrews to have a somewhat decent day.
Pick: Mark Andrews 45-59 Yards
Kenny Pickett Passing Yards
The last time these two teams met, Kenny Pickett was knocked from the game early with a concussion. He literally had zero passing yards on the day.
Now back in the saddle, Pittsburgh’s rookie signal-caller will look to ride out the entirety of this one in front of a hostile crowd at M&T Bank Stadium.
Since being named the Steelers’ starter, Pickett has thrown for 1921 yards, five touchdowns and six interceptions while rushing for another 41-219-1. Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in scoring, averaging just 16.6 points per game with Pickett under center.
Averaging 192.1 passing yards per game, he’ll try to find success against a Ravens defense that ranks 12th in passing DVOA (-1.2%) despite allowing the eight-most passing yards per game (239.5). I’m picking the Ravens to win this one, which means the Steelers should see a negative game script and be forced into passing a little more than their current rate of 55%.
Baltimore has given up many a big passing play late in games this season -- something that’s contributed mightily to their 10-5 record. Of Pickett’s four 200+ yard passing games this season, three have come in losses. In the Steelers’ Week 14 loss to the Ravens, it’s worth noting that Mitchell Trubisky came off the bench to throw for 276-1-3 in a game the Steelers probably should have won.
I like Pickett’s chances to air it out a bit in this one but I’m not sure we see a 270+ yard performance like we did from Trubisky.
Pick: Kenny Pickett 220-239 Passing Yards
