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A full schedule in the National Hockey League offers many opportunities for bettors to find value.
Below you will find overlays from three of tonight’s games – including a boosted puck line parlay – available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS at TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
The two-time defending Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning look like they are hitting their stride as we make our way through the final third of the NHL’s regular season, and that should be cause for concern for the rest of the league.
Tampa has rattled off victories in fourteen of their last eighteen games, and their stars have shined brightly over the past week or so.
Nikita Kucherov has a goal and an assist in each of his last four games, and captain Steven Stamkos has scored at least once in each of his five most recent games.
The scariest thing for Tampa’s competition going forward?
All-world goaltender Andrey Vasilevskiy has played “fine” recently; knowing that he still has another level that he is capable of reaching should make the rest of the league extremely nervous.
Tampa’s opponent tonight is the Pittsburgh Penguins, a team that has been remarkably inconsistent over the course of the season.
Pittsburgh has streaks of all shapes and sizes this season: losing eight out of ten, winning ten-straight, losing four consecutive, winning four consecutive, losing three-in-a-row, and currently putting back-to-back wins together.
Which version of the Pens shows up tonight is a mystery, but given the way Tampa is trending, their +140 (implied probability of 41.7%) puck line odds are worth betting on.
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EDMONTON OILERS at CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
The Edmonton Oilers have rebounded a bit following a disastrous stretch of play from early December through mid-January in which they lost 13 of 15 games, however the damage may be done.
Currently on the outside looking in, the Oilers could very well miss the postseason with two of the five best players in the National Hockey League on their roster, something that seems almost unfathomable.
Thanks to Edmonton’s recent run of play against inferior opponents, however, their playoff dreams are still alive.
Edmonton has taken care of business against the teams they are supposed to beat, including the likes of Philadelphia, Winnipeg, Anaheim, San Jose, New York (Isles), Montreal, and Vancouver.
Tonight’s competition fits squarely into this category, as the Oilers get set to take on the Chicago Blackhawks at United Center.
Marc-Andre Fleury has been announced as tonight’s starter for the Blackhawks, and while the future Hall of Famer is still capable of delivering a big performance from time to time (tied for third in the league in shutouts), he is just as capable of producing an awful performance.
Fleury has the most Really Bad Starts (yes, that is a real stat) in the NHL this season according to hockey-reference.com, creating a fascinating juxtaposition – the legend’s good is still extremely good, but his bad has become putrid at the age of thirty-seven.
Against a desperate team that has the likes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, things could get ugly for Chicago tonight.
Based on my projections the Oilers defeat the Blackhawks by at least two goals 43.9% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of +128 – suggesting Edmonton’s puck line odds of +170 (implied probability of 37%) is an enormous overlay.
BOSTON BRUINS at VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
It is prudent to identify a goaltender that is in the zone, and that’s exactly what Bruins’ goalie Jeremy Swayman is at the moment.
The 23-year-old backstop has been strong in his first full season in the NHL (despite what some would suggest), compiling a goals against average of 1.95 and a save percentage of .929 in twenty-four appearances.
As solid as these numbers are, he has taken his game to another level over in his last six starts.
Dating back to February 12, Swayman owns a record of 5-0-1 with two shutouts and a .971 save percentage.
Aside from Igor Shesterkin, there is a compelling case to be made that Swayman is the most “in form” goaltender in the NHL currently.
Tonight, Swayman and the Bruins tackle a Vegas Golden Knights team that has lost five of their last seven overall and seems to be missing their captain, Mark Stone (placed on LTIR in February).
If Boston can give their netminder a little support offensively, the Bruins should be able to bounce back following a 4-3 loss to the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday.
THE PLAYS
Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning – Lightning -1.5 (+140)
Edmonton Oilers at Chicago Blackhawks – Oilers -1.5 (+170)
Boston Bruins at Vegas Golden Knights – Bruins ML (-115)
BOOSTED PUCK LINE PARLAY: Lightning -1.5 and Oilers -1.5 (+590)
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