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The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak in the English Premier League continues to be a situation that merits monitoring, as matches are liable to be postponed at any moment.
As of Friday afternoon, three matches are scheduled to take place on Sunday: Wolves v. Chelsea, Newcastle v. Manchester City, and Tottenham v. Liverpool.
Below you will find an overlay to consider from Sunday’s match between Wolves and Chelsea available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS v. CHELSEA – DOUBLE CHANCE – WOLVES or DRAW (+140)
Nobody would argue that Wolves are as talented or as complete a squad as Chelsea, however this may be the time for the home side to catch the reigning European Champions while they are in lackluster form.
Thomas Tuchel’s team continues to look as though they have plateaued, as evidenced by their 1-1 draw against a struggling Everton earlier this week at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea have conceded a whopping nine goals in their last four games in all competitions, a total that averages out to 2.25 goals against per game.
This is in stark contrast to their first twenty-two games of the season in all competitions, over which they yielded ten goals total (average of less than .5 goals against per game).
For whatever reason, Chelsea have seemingly let their guard down, allowing opponents multiple quality scoring opportunities.
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Wolverhampton Wanderers are by no means an offensive juggernaut.
In fact, they are quite poor offensively, scoring just thirteen goals in seventeen Premier League games this season.
This total ranks behind all clubs except Norwich City, a club that appears destined for League Championship football next season.
Bruno Lage’s side have scored just two goals in their last seven Premier League contests, which is also in stark contrast to the form Wolves had displayed earlier this season.
From September 11 to November 1, Wolves scored eleven goals over a span of seven EPL contests.
What has changed for Wolverhampton Wanderers since this period?
Primary scoring option Raúl Jiménez has gone without a goal since November 20, Hwang Hee-chan has been nursing a hamstring injury, and Adama Traoré has in a sense been reinventing himself as a footballer.
Sunday’s match (assuming it is held) could be the opportunity Wolves need to grab a goal or two against a Chelsea club that is far from firing on all cylinders now.
Based on my projections, Wolves either win or draw 44.8% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of +123.
This number suggests the current odds offered on a Wolves win / draw of +140 (implied probability of 41.7%) represent an overlay worth considering.
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