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All eyes will be on Stamford Bridge Sunday, as Chelsea get set to host Liverpool in one of the most highly anticipated battles of the English Premier League season.
While that game may be the better watch, I am more interested in the contest between Brentford and Aston Villa in terms of wagering opportunity.
Below you will find an overlay to consider from this match available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
BRENTFORD v. ASTON VILLA – DRAW NO BET – BRENTFORD (+116)
Brentford enters Sunday’s match with Aston Villa on a three-game losing streak in all competitions, a stretch that includes consecutive losses in the Premier League.
Overall, the form of Thomas Frank’s side has been poor since their 2-1 victory over West Ham way back on October 3.
Since that win, the Bees own a record of 2-2-7, earning just eight points over an eleven-game span.
The most striking contrast between Brentford’s early-season success and their current form is their inability to prevent goals.
On the season, Brentford still look like a very solid team at limiting their opposition’s chances, conceding twenty-five goals in eighteen EPL matches.
Upon further review, however, their recent penchant for giving up goals becomes alarming.
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Following the 2-1 West Ham victory mentioned earlier, the Bees have yielded nineteen goals in just eleven games (average of 1.72 goals against per game), illustrating the struggles they have had.
All of this may lead one to wonder how Brentford would have any chance against Steven Gerrard’s Aston Villa side that has seen their form turn around since his arrival last month.
The answer is simple.
Aston Villa are a side that has played just a single match since December 14 due to COVID-19 issues surrounding the club, and it is fair to wonder if the time off has dulled them a bit.
Their 3-1 loss to Chelsea at Villa Park on Boxing Day was not truly that close, as Chelsea star Reece James scored an own goal in the first half to give Villa their lone tally of the match.
Chelsea was also able to control the flow of the game that day, owning a 58-42 edge in possession over Villa.
While Brentford are by no means a team that typically dictates pace and control, a slightly improved effort in that department could go a long way against a Villa team that has a -5-goal differential on the road.
Based on my projections, Brentford beats Aston Villa – with a draw resulting in no bet – 49.3% of the time.
This percentage translates to odds of +103, indicating Brentford’s current odds of +116 (implied probability of 46.3%) represent an overlay worth considering.
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