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There are just three matches set to take place in the English Premier League on Sunday, with the showdown at London Stadium between West Ham and Arsenal being the featured event.
A wager I’m keen on, however, takes place in a match that will happen earlier in the day in Liverpool.
Below you will find an overlay from Sunday’s match between Everton and Chelsea that is available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
EVERTON v. CHELSEA – TO WIN TO NIL – Chelsea (+185)
By no means are Chelsea playing their best football, but they’re still the far superior of the two sides that will battle at Goodison Park on Saturday.
Despite dominating possession in each of their last five Premier League matches, Thomas Tuchel’s side have earned just seven of a possible fifteen points during this stretch.
Perhaps the most alarming element of this recent spell of play has been their inability to compete with squads that have any sort of quality.
Losses to Brentford and Arsenal by a combined score of 8-3 and a 1-1 draw against Manchester United earlier this week illustrate how poorly the Blues have performed as of late.
These performances would never have had a chance of occurring during the first half of the Premier League season when Chelsea had allowed just six goals through their first fourteen league games.
Sunday’s contest against a desperate Everton side could be a blessing or a curse for the visitors.
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Although players like Richarlison and Anthony Gordon have displayed good form recently, Everton’s lack of results for the better part of three months has them staring at the prospect of relegation for the first time since the 1950-1951 season.
The reality of the situation is this: Everton cannot afford to drop any points at this juncture.
A draw at home against Chelsea won’t do them much in the grand scheme of things, as they enter Sunday’s game at least two points away from safety (and potentially five points depending on the result of Saturday’s Watford v. Burnley match).
This means Everton must be aggressive, which could certainly lead to goal scoring opportunities – while also leaving them vulnerable to counterattacks.
Chelsea have been on the softer side within their own half recently, but the price offered on a road victory via clean sheet is too tempting to pass up.
My numbers suggest Chelsea wins in shutout fashion at Everton 41.4% of the time, indicating their current price of +185 (implied probability of 35.1%) represents an overlay.
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