A light Saturday in the English Premier League leaves bettors with only a handful of wagering opportunities, but quality of opportunities is better than quantity of opportunities.
It may not be the flashiest game on paper, but Saturday’s contest between Wolves and Nottingham Forest appeals to me greatly from a gambling perspective.
Below you will find an overlay from this match set to take place at Molineux Stadium, with the odds supplied by PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would be an overlay.
Here is the year-to-date results tally:
8-7-1 (53.1%), +3.05 units
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS v. NOTTINGHAM FOREST – TOTAL GOALS – Under 1.5 (+230)
It’s been a rough start to the campaign for Wolverhampton Wanderers; so rough, in fact, that management decided the best way to proceed was by dismissing manager Bruno Lage at the beginning of the month.
The Premier League is a harsh place to live, and Lage’s firing is just the latest example.
There aren’t many managers that would find success playing without their best forward (Raúl Jiménez – injury) for the bulk of the season – never mind with a team that has historically struggled to score even with the services of their best striker.
Wolves are in disarray heading into Saturday’s tilt with Nottingham Forest, another team currently sitting in the relegation zone.
Of the two, one would expect Wolves to claw their way out of the bottom given their recent history, however things are so dire at the moment that it seems as though any conclusion is possible for the Wolverhampton-based club.
Goals have been nearly as hard to come by for Nottingham Forest, who own the worst goal differential in the Premier League this season (-15).
21-year-old Brennan Johnson has provided a bit of a spark for Steve Cooper’s bunch, but that’s not really saying considering the Reds have scored a mere seven goals in nine league games.
Given the lack of firepower on either of these sides, I would anticipate that much of Saturday’s ninety minutes will be spent in the middle-third of the pitch.
If the match plays out this way, goals will be even more difficult to find, suggesting the total goals scored in the game will be slim to none.
My model indicates that this match will end in a 0-0 draw, a 1-0 Nottingham Forest win, or a 1-0 Wolves win 42.2% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of +137.
When compared to the UNDER 1.5 total goals scored price of +230 (implied probability of 30.3%) available at PointsBet, the wager becomes a no-brainer.
