Just like that, the Premier League season is over, and three teams have been sent down while three others have been promoted to the mecca of English football. With the culmination of the major European leagues, we look forward to the major European tournaments. The Europa League final has concluded with Sevilla edging Roma in a penalty shootout. Next, Fiorentina will take on West Ham United on Wednesday for the Europa Conference League final. Then, it all wraps up with the granddaddy of them all, the Champions League final. Premier League champions Manchester City go toe-to-toe with Serie A’s Inter Milan.
2023 Champions League Final
Manchester City vs. Inter Milan (Saturday, June 10, 3:00 PM ET)
Three-way Moneyline: Manchester City (-250) | Draw (+390) | Inter Milan (+600)
There are so many props I am interested in betting for this matchup. The sportsbooks still need to release the prop lines I am looking for. I’ll add more to my Twitter page once they go live.
This is an interesting spot for Inter. They are in fairly decent form. They’ve won six of their last seven domestically, scoring multiple goals in every victory. Their lone domestic loss in that span was a 3-1 loss against Serie A champions Napoli. It was a match where they saw Roberto Gagliardini get sent off in the 41' due to picking up his second yellow. Napoli, by far, were the best team they played domestically this season. It was a 1-nil win in the reverse fixture and a 3-1 loss in the second. In the win and the first half of the second fixture, they were pretty much dominant in both matches.
If we look back at their group in the Champions League, they finished second behind Bayern and beat out Barcelona and Plzen. They lost both matches to Bayern Munich 2-nil. They were dominated in possession and dominated on the stat sheet.
In their match against City, we should expect much of the same in the possession department. Simone Inzaghi knows that his club will see the most success in this match by absorbing pressure and trying to beat them on the counter. In their Champions League win over Barcelona, they were dominated in possession. Their lone goal came from a 45 + 2' goal from Hakan Calhanoglu. They only took five shots, with just two hitting the target. For most of the match, they will sit in deep positions and limit the space in behind.
Pep Guardiola and Manchester City will be happy to have the lion’s share of the possession. They led the Premier League in possession, with 64.7% possession per match. They were also second in the Champions League in possession, holding 60.3% possession per match.
At times last season, City struggled to create goals and quality shots while having the bulk of the possession. This was evident in the second leg of their semi-final Champions League fixture against Real Madrid. They won the possession battle 56/44 but lost the match 3-1.
It’s safe to say their scoring quality this season has greatly improved. While they have scored less overall this season than last, they have one of the best goal-scoring options in the world in Erling Haaland. The Golden Boot winner scored 36 goals in 35 Premier League appearances. He will also likely win the Champions League Golden Boot, scoring 12 goals in 10 games.
This City team, from top to bottom, is the best the world right now. Regardless of how well Inter are playing right now, I have to back City in this one. I can’t bring myself to bet the money line at -250, but I like the Asian lines.
They have scored 31 goals and only conceded five in Champions League play. They should be able to unlock the defense of Inter, which will make them have to open up. I like City to win, score multiple goals, and possibly win by multiple goals.
Bet 1: Manchester City ML & over 1.5 goals (-165) 0.75 units
Bet 2: Manchester City -1.5 (+112) 0.5 units
