Only four matches remain in the Euro 2020 group stage, and there’s plenty of intrigue with the final two groups.
As expected, the Group F finishing positions are wide open. All of France, Portugal and Germany have the opportunity to win the group depending on the results in the other match.
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As for Group E, the intrigue lies with Spain, who need a win and a Sweden loss to win the group outright. A Sweden draw against Poland would still give the Spaniards a chance to finish top, but they’d need to make up the goal differential.
With that in mind, allow me to share my final round of best bets for the group stages. As always, odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook.
Best Bet #1 - Spain to Win to Nil (-143) vs. Slovakia
Next to Denmark, Spain have been one of the unluckiest teams in terms of expected goals in the tournament.
Through two matches, manager Luis Enrique’s squad have managed a single goal. However, the underlying metrics say they should have scored nearly SIX goals combined against Sweden and Poland.
Slovakia, on the other hand, has had some good Fortune in their first two matches.
They’ve scored two goals in two matches, but have had an xGF total of 1.12. Plus, Slovakia’s xGA data shows that even though they’ve only conceded twice through two matches, that number should be closer to four.
I initially took a long look at the Spain Goal-Line (-1.5) at -155, but wanted to be protected against a 1-0 Spain victory.
Despite Spain’s offensive woes, the positive angle is that their defensive has been stellar thus far. While underperforming on their xGF data, Spain have actually outperformed their xGA metric (one goal conceded vs. 2.7 xGA).
Combine that with the overall struggles of the Slovakian offense -- which I think will struggle to break through against a Spain side that has averaged nearly 82 percent possession in their first two matches -- and I think a Spain 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 victory is in the cards.
Best Bet #2 - Germany to Win to Nil (-103) vs. Hungary
We all know the word “mercy” doesn’t exist in the German vocabulary, but Hungary have been a pesky side in the group of death.
The issue here, though, is that Hungary’s main problem is about to be exacerbated when they travel to Munich for this fixture.
Through two matches, the Hungarians have averaged a mere 30 percent possession rate while their opponents have achieved over 60 percent possession through two matches. I expect the Germans to dominate the ball against Hungary and limit their overall chances.
Plus, Hungary haven’t been very adept offensively against Portugal and France. Despite grabbing a goal in the latter match, Hungary have only registered 0.78 xGF across both fixtures.
The other key to this match? The site.
I believe part of Hungary’s “success” has come from playing both matches in Budapest with a friendly supporter base behind them. Even though Germany haven’t been the greatest home side this year, I expect they’ll place emphasis on defense in order to keep a positive goal differential should it come into play as a tiebreaker.
All that said, the range of possible score lines for this match is very broad which leads me to stay away from Germany spreads. A 2- or 3-0 Germany victory feels the most likely though and would give themselves a chance at winning the group.
Best Bet #3 - France Moneyline (+120) vs. Portugal
It’s a rematch of the 2016 European Championship Final, and it’s the perfect revenge spot for France.
Despite the French having already qualified for the round of 16 -- a loss to Portugal and a Germany victory would still give them enough points to be a top third-place team -- the benefits of finishing atop this group are sizable.
Mainly, it comes down to the fact that a second-place finish in Group F sends you to Wembley to face England and a third-place finish gets you either Netherlands or Belgium.
What does a win get France you ask? One of Switzerland, Finland or Ukraine.
France will be operating under the assumption that Germany will get all three points in their match against Hungary, so anything short of three points would see them fail to win the group.
Other than their extra-time defeat at the 2016 Euros, France have good history against the Portugese.
Not including that result, Les Bleus are unbeaten in their last five matches against Portugal (4W-1D). In two Nations Leagues matches last fall, France won once and drew once against Portugal with a +1 goal differential.
Despite not looking their best against Germany, the French attack seemed to find good form against Hungary, registering nearly three expected goals. Against a Portugese defense that struggled to handle Germany’s attack, I expect the France counter-attack to come to life against Portugal.
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