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Matchweek 6 in the English Premier League kicks off Saturday, highlighted by the showdown at Stamford Bridge between Chelsea and Manchester City. Consecutive substandard weeks on the betting front have wiped out much of the profit that had accrued (4-6, +0.82 units on the season), however the ledger still lands in the black. Along with the Chelsea v. City fixture, below you will find two other contests from the Saturday slate that feature wagers with overlaid odds currently available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability. For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100. If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
CHELSEA v. MANCHESTER CITY – MATCH RESULT – CHELSEA WIN (+165 odds currently at PointsBet)
It has been abundantly clear why many people entered the ’21-’22 Premier League season anticipating Chelsea to be the team to beat, as they have steamrolled through their first five league matches of the season. Outscoring their opponents 12-1, the Blues have earned thirteen of a possible fifteen points to date while rarely affording the opposition many scoring opportunities of any kind (the only goal Chelsea has allowed to date came via penalty kick). There is also something to be said about having ten different men contribute to the goal scoring, indicating just how deep this squad is.
At face value, Manchester City fairly mirrors Chelsea’s accomplishments. City have outscored their opponents 11-1 in five EPL matches, however the fashion in which they have earned their ten points leaves a bit to be desired. After dropping their league opener at Tottenham 1-0, Manchester City outscored Norwich and Arsenal 10-0 at Etihad Stadium in their next two contests. While the margin is impressive, it must be acknowledged that Norwich looks to be on the fast track to relegation and the Arsenal victory came at a time when the Gunners were in shambles. Their two subsequent matches against Leicester and Southampton (a win and a draw) can only be viewed as disappointing results, and a replica of either of those performances against Chelsea on Saturday will surely result in a loss.
When assessing the odds currently available at PointsBet, it becomes clear that the value lies in taking Chelsea to win outright. My model suggests Chelsea wins this match 61.41% of the time, a percentage which equates to odds of -159. Given the odds offered on this outcome (+165, implied probability of 37.74%), it becomes easy to see why this is the play.
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LEEDS UNITED v. WEST HAM – HANDICAP WITH TIE – WEST HAM -1 (+350 odds currently at PointsBet)
Leeds is still in search of the elusive first victory of their Premier League season, however their recent form combined with several players who will be less than 100% (if they suit up at all) make the tilt with West Ham on Saturday a daunting challenge. The Whites have conceded goals at an alarming rate (12 goals against in five matches), and things will not get any easier as West Ham head to Elland Road.
West Ham have proven that their fast start is no fluke, scoring a 1-0 victory at Old Trafford Wednesday against Manchester United in the third round of the EFL Cup. Michail Antonio seems likely to return to the lineup for David Moyes’ squad on Saturday, furthering the case that the away side appear poised to hang a crooked number on the board in this spot.
For the Handicap With Tie wager to be successful in this case, West Ham must win the match by two goals or more. Based on the probability of West Ham winning by at least two goals (69.33% according to my numbers; odds of -226), West Ham -1 becomes the play considering PointsBet has the offering listed at odds of +350 (implied probability of 22.22%).
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EVERTON v. NORWICH CITY – TO WIN TO NIL – EVERTON (+170 odds currently at PointsBet)
Norwich’s struggles have been well documented at this point. Not only have they had an incredibly challenging time scoring goals themselves, but they have also struggled mightily to keep the ball out of their own goal. With a goal differential that is nearly twice as bad as those in nearest attendance (-12 compared to -7 for Arsenal, Leeds, and Newcastle), it is plain to see that, despite possessing the ball for a fair amount of their matches, they are currently in a world of hurt.
Everton will never be confused with a Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, or Manchester City when it comes to goal scoring, however they’ve more than held their own this season when it comes to tallies. While 30% of their goals have come from Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who is currently sidelined, it is worth noting that Rafa Benitez’s side have scored at least two goals in all but one of their Premier League matches this season.
A compelling argument can be made that the -167 odds (implied probability of 62.55%) for Everton winning represents a hefty overlay, however it is still a price that does little to entice. A more intriguing option is Everton winning without allowing a goal to Norwich. This wager is being offered at odds of +170 (implied probability of 37.04%) on PointsBet, while my numbers suggest the price should be closer to -360 (implied probability of 78.24%).
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