The Golden Boot race is expected to be a tightly contested battle at Euro 2020. The field is filled with prolific goalscorers, players coming off career years in domestic play, and some icons nearing the end of their prime. When evaluating the favorites to top the scoring charts, it is essential to consider the commonalities shared by the previous winners. Identifying the trends serves as a rough criterion for putting together a profile for the potential top goalscorer.
Historically, the magic number to be crowned the top goalscorer has been five goals. Nine of the 15 top scorers have taken the title with five or more goals. Since the Golden Boot award was officially installed at Euro ’96, four of the last six winners have claimed the prize with five goals. Each of the previous three winners reached the final, while each of the previous five winners made it to the semi-finals. Additionally, each of the previous four Golden Boot winners had odds longer than +1000 (10/1).
In 2016, Antoine Griezmann had odds around +1000 when he won the Golden Boot with six goals in seven appearances. In 2012, six players were in contention with the top-scorer tally at three goals. Fernando Torres, who had odds around +1600, claimed the honors with three goals and assisted in 189 minutes of play. David Villa was priced around +2000 when he won the award with four goals in 2008, while five goals were enough to top the charts in the three editions prior. The data before that tournament is hardest to pull, but from what we have come across, Milan Baros floated around +5000 (50/1) when he won the award in 2004.
The current Top Goalscorer odds at PointsBet Sportsbook form an exciting landscape. There are 35 players with odds inside the +5000 (50/1) threshold. This article features a shortlist of players expected to be among the most popular bets in the build-up to the tournament. The goal is to separate the pretenders from the contenders since there are lots of well-known names in the hunt for the coveted title.
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Harry Kane (England) | Golden Boot Odds (+550)
Tremendous talent and an easy enough group to set up a deep run in the tournament are two reasons why Gareth Southgate’s side is touted to reach the final. And with one of the most reliable goalscorers in the world leading the line, this arguably the best chance the nation has ever had to win their first-ever Euro.
Unsurprisingly, Kane has the shortest odds in the Top Goalscorer market. The 27-year-old won the Golden Boot at the 2018 World Cup, where he scored six goals as England reached the semi-finals. Kane is coming off another excellent Premier League campaign, winning the Golden Boot with 23 goals in 35 appearances. Statistically, the iconic forward ranked in the upper echelon of nearly every critical scoring category.
Kane has 34 goals in 53 international appearances for England, which puts him sixth on the Three Lions’ all-time goalscorers list. He has scored on 67.1 percent of his international appearances and averaged a goal every 121 minutes. As for Captain Kane’s form in the build-up to June 11, elite is the first word that comes to mind. No players scored more goals during qualification than Kane, who netted 12 in eight appearances. His run was highlighted by consistent performances on a match-to-match basis, as he scored in all eight matches and averaged a goal every 56 minutes.
On pedigree, Kane could be among the top goalscorers regardless of how far England advance in the tournament. The position is furthered by a good career tally against the Group G collective, netting four goals in six appearances over the last five years. A hot start and a trip to at least the quarterfinals should see Kane hit, and likely eclipse, the all-important five-goal mark. I would back Kane for the Golden Boot, as well as the Top England Goalscrorer at -118.
Romelu Lukaku (Belgium) | Golden Boot Odds (+650)
Belgium had the best attack with 40 goals scored and best defense with just three conceded during qualification. Roberto Martinez has been in charge for just a handful of matches, but his squad is filled with world-class talent in their prime. Drawn in Group B alongside Denmark, Finland, and Russia and not slated to face a stronger opposition until the semi-finals, Belgium’s chances to win a major title have never been better.
Lukaku has had a pair of stellar seasons for Inter Milan. He has scored 64 goals in 95 appearances since joining in August of 2019. This past season was the most successful of his career, as he scored 24 goals and tallied ten assists in 36 league games to help Inter win Serie A. Belgium’s all-time leading goalscorer with 59 goals in 91 appearances, Lukaku’s already impressive form on the international stage has been amplified over the last few years. He scored two goals at Euro 2016, his first international tournament as a starter, and doubled his tally with four at the 2018 World Cup. Since the World Cup in Russia, he has scored 19 goals and been on the scoresheet in 13 of his last 16 international appearances.
Big Rom has enjoyed success throughout his career against the field in Group B. He has six goals across in eight total appearances. The most recent encounter came against Denmark last November when he bagged a brace in the Nations League. Based on how we have seen his goal output improve over three major tournaments, his odds are fair despite seeming relatively short. Lukaku and Kane are in a tier above the cut, so I have no issues backing him for the Golden Boot.
Kylian Mbappe, France | Golden Boot Odds (+850)
Mbappe had the best scoring output of his young career this season. The 22-year-old was the top scorer in Ligue 1 with 42 goals in 47 league matches for Paris-Saint Germain. For France, Mbappe has 16 goals and 13 assists in 42 caps. The chain of thought behind the phenom making noise in the Golden Boot race is a solid argument. France is one of the favorites, Mbappe was the best player at the 2018 World Cup, and he enters this tournament having developed even further.
Historically, the Golden Boot has been won by a Frenchman at two of the last nine Euros. Griezmann led the way in 2016, and Michel Platini holds the record for most goals in a European Championship finals competition, having powered France to the 1984 title with nine. Mbappe has the tools to give that record a run at some point in his career, but this time around will be a challenging task for two main reasons.
First, they have been drawn in the group of death along with Germany and Portugal and upstart Hungary. Three tough matches are compounded by my expectation is that the goals will be evenly dispersed across the front three, with Karim Benzema back in the picture and Griezmann on the other wing. The luxury of a three-headed attack makes it difficult for me to see Mbappe keeping pace with the field of players that are primary goalscorers with less teammate competition.
Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) | Golden Boot Odds (+1100)
Ronaldo is 36, but that did not stop him from having an excellent season for Juventus. He scored 29 goals in Serie A play and was the third-highest score in Europe’s top five leagues with 36 in all competitions. Regardless of where you stand about his current level of play, Ronaldo’s international goal record is one of the best there is. He has scored 102 goals in 172 international appearances, and he is the joint all-time leading scorer in European Championship finals history with nine goals in 21 appearances. Ronaldo remains the only player to score three or more goals in multiple tournaments, and he needs just one goal to surpass Platini to take the all-time scoring lead.
Ronaldo scored in each of the final six qualification matches and had 11 goals in total, which saw him rank second behind only Harry Kane. It would be quite the story for him to win the Golden Boot at his fifth tournament, given the assumption this will likely be his last trip as Portugal’s captain. However, the five-time Ball d’Or winner has been done no favors, with Portugal drawn in the group of death. Group F features brutal encounters with France and Germany, which means they will need to steal a draw and thump Hungary to position themselves to advance as one of the top third-place teams. Ronaldo will get his chances thanks to one of the best midfield chance creators in Bruno Fernandes, but a surreal effort would be required for Portugal to enjoy a lengthy knockout stage run. My gut says take a punt, but my brain says look elsewhere for better value.
Memphis Depay (Netherlands) | Golden Boot Odds (+1800)
Depay will be the key man for the Netherlands. The 27-year-old was the most influential piece during their last five matches, with three goals, 33 shots, and 17 shots on target. The 2020/2021 season was also the most productive of his career, with his performances fueling transfer speculation over a move to Barcelona. Depay scored 20 goals in 37 matches for Lyon and finished as the second-highest scorer in Ligue 1 behind only Kylian Mbappe.
The prospects for the Netherlands have been a little hard to gauge with a relatively new manager in Frank de Boar at the helm. Under de Boar, Depay has produced three goals in four games from the wing and three goals in five games playing as an out-and-out striker. In the 2-2 draw with Scotland on Wednesday, De Boar deployed Wout Weghorst and Depay as forwards in a 5-3-2 formation. Depay scored both goals, and he has flourished as a false nine since joining Lyon, so it seems like he will be used as a center-forward or in a front-two for the tournament.
Admittedly, Depay was not someone I had initially planned on mentioning. After looking at Group C, though, I think he has a better chance to finish closer to the top of the scoring charts than the odds imply. Pitted against Austria, Ukraine, and North Macedonia, the Dutch seem assured of a knockout stage birth. Depay is a high-volume shooter, and good group stage fixtures could see him among the contenders ahead of the knockout stage. The opportunity to pad his stats during group play and Holland’s feasible path to the semi-finals gives Depay an outside chance of flirting with the Golden Boot.
Robert Lewandowski (Poland) | Golden Boot Odds (+2200)
The Bayern Munich goal machine is coming off an outstanding season. No player in Europe’s top five leagues scored more goals during the 2020/2021 campaign than Lewandowski, who bagged 48 in 41 appearances in all competitions. In the Bundesliga, he became the first player in league history to be named the top scorer in four successive seasons with a record-setting tally of 41 goals in 29 matches.
Lewandowski never went more than one match without scoring and only failed to find the back of in four of his 29 appearances. The 32-year-old also averaged a goal every 60 minutes. While his numbers pop off the page by themselves, they look even more impressive when compared to the other top contenders. On a minutes per goal basis, the next closest player was Ronaldo, who averaged a goal every 96.6 minutes.
When it comes to Lewandowski’s chance to win the Golden Boot, he is the only player that seems capable of challenging without the need for a deep tournament run. The Poland captain scored multiple goals on ten occasions in the Bundesliga, with five braces, four hat tricks, and one four-goal outing. His ability to score in bunches makes four goals in the group stage doable, especially since neither Sweden nor Slovakia seems equipped to handle the in-form No. 9.
I expect Lewandowski to power Poland into the knockout stage, but his chances to reach the final four will be slim unless they steal the top spot from Spain. The second-place team in Group E will play either Croatia or England in the Round of 16, while the group winner will get the Czech Republic or Scotland. Despite the obstacles, Lewandowski has the pop potential to win the Golden Boot without a deep tournament run. It would be a fitting reward for the frontman to take the individual honors after being snubbed the 2020 Ballon d’Or due to cancellation.
Lewandowski’s odds shorten from +2500 to +2200 over the last month, and it likely will end up around +2000 when the tournament starts. I would act now.
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