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Matchday 19 comes with a bit of uncertainty. Managers and players have expressed their desire to halt play until the new year to allow players and organizations to isolate and get healthy. The Premier League has decided to continue with the Boxing Day festivities and postpone matches as COVID issues arise. As it stands now, we have a full slate of nine games on Boxing Day and one the following day.
As a huge EPL fan and a big fan of Boxing Day action, I think it’s only right I find a few anytime scorer props for you to consider. I won’t offer anything less than +110 and I’ll try to avoid players who have been battling COVID issues. All odds can be found via PointsBet Sportsbook:
Liverpool vs Leeds:
Mohamed Salah to score and assist (+290)
If I were to break my rule on not suggesting a player under +110 for an anytime scorer prop it would be either Christiano Ronaldo in Champions League or Mohamed Salah. For Ronaldo, it’s well known that he is the current King of Champions League. For Salah, it’s almost impossible to ignore the outrageous form he’s in. He has scored or assisted in 15 straight matches; he has 15 goals and nine assists. The bet I like for his match with Leeds is Mohamed Salah to score and assist (+290).
Salah hasn’t hit this mark since October 16th, where they routed Watford 5-0. There is certainly some risk, but it’s not as far fetched as the odds indicate. If you look at the three matches since Kalvin Phillips has been out, Leeds have conceded 14 times. Many of which were goals scored on the counter and a great deal scored via assist. Also, in the match against City, Leeds allowed the right winger Riyad Mahrez to score and get an assist. It helps that Salah has the most goals and assist. He has one of the highest expected assist (xA) rates and one of the actual assists to expected assists (A-xA) in the EPL. I expect Liverpool to score plenty of goals with a few being open net tap ins, which gives me value on Salad to score and get an assist.
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Diogo Jota to score a goal (-150)
I am not going to break my rule of not suggesting players with odds of less than +110. I certainly am not going to tell you to back Jota at -150. While I was connecting with my buddy on Twitter who goes by JustStatsJake (great statistician and soccer mind), it’s necessary to at least consider Jota. I think he hits the score sheet against a Leeds side who are banged up and shorthanded. He’s scored 10 goals in 17 matches with an xG/90 of +0.75. Jota is worthy of your consideration; possibly in a Jota ATS and Liverpool ML same game parlay.
Manchester City vs Leicester City:
Riyad Mahrez to score a goal (+120)
Leicester City had a Wednesday cup tie with Liverpool and Brendan Rodgers decided to line up with many starters in his XI. As if they haven’t been dealing with a lot of injuries and fitness issues, he decided he was going to go after this match. Perfect for our Manchester City to score in both halves bet, and even better for those who are backing ATS props from City players. I honestly could make a case for like three or four players on Manchester City. I like Phil Foden to score and he’s probably my top scorer for the price, but who knows if he’s back in favor with Pep.
Either way, I am backing Riyad Mahrez to score a goal (+120) against Leicester City. For starters, PointsBet has City’s team total set at 2.5, I think they hit that with ease. Leicester have a terrible road xGA (1.76) and City have the best xG (2.55) in the EPL. I think of those goal scorers, Mahrez will find the back of the net.
Liverpool vs Leeds:
Raphael Dias Belloli (Raphina) to score (+290)
It would almost be presumptuous of me to think that Leeds score multiple goals, let alone one. Leeds likely won’t offer much. Luckily for them, Liverpool are dealing with their own injury and COVID issues in their starting XI. I didn’t want to give you a list of players to consider all with short prices. Consider Raphina my longshot anytime scorer prop. Other long shots I considered were Ollie Watkins (+300) and Emmanuel Dennis (+245), but I think Leeds have a better chance to score than Aston Villa and Watford.
Raphina is the heartbeat of this Leeds team. He has eight goals through 16 matches with a xG/90 of +0.39. It isn’t among the EPL’s best, but it offers some value when the price is +290. He’s scored in three of the last five Leeds matches. He’s the penalty taker which gives him a bit more value in this market. Not saying he will cash, but he certainly is a worthy longshot.
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