Having dispatched 2019 Champions League winners Liverpool, Real Madrid now turn their attention to their second straight English knockout round foe - Chelsea.
After dropping all three points to Shakhtar Donetsk in their opening home gain, Real has righted the ship and won four straight matches at the Estadio Alfredo di Stefano. But despite recent successes, home UCL knockout legs for Real have proved challenging. Dating back to the 2017-18 season, Real have only won three of their last seven home knockout legs.
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PointsBet Sportsbook is expecting a tight match between these two teams as Real is a +130 favorite on the moneyline with Chelsea the underdog at +235. As for the draw moneyline, it’s priced at +215. The match total is set at 2.5 goals with under 2.5 goals the underdog at -165 while over 2.5 goals is priced at +130.
Real Madrid vs. Chelsea Preview - Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET
If there’s cause for concern with the home favorites in the first leg, it’s the abundance of injuries to the back line.
Both centre-back Sergio Ramos and winger-turned-right-back Lucas Vazquez will miss the first leg of the semifinals, while left-back Ferland Mendy is doubtful but could feature depending on a late fitness test. Additionally, midfielder Federico Valverde will be unavailable after a positive coronavirus test.
In good news, manager Zinedine Zidane will see the return of midfield Toni Kroos to fill that gap Valverde leaves. Additionally, former Chelsea star Eden Hazard is reportedly fit and available for selection against his former team. Hazard featured as a substitute in Saturday’s 0-0 draw with Real Betis after yet another spell on the sidelines due to injury.
As for Chelsea, Thomas Tuchel brings a near fully fit squad to the Spanish capital, with midfielder Mateo Kovacic the only injury concern. In Kovacic’s absence, expect Jorginho and N’Golo Kante to hold in midfield for the Blues.
Along with its intact squad, Chelsea also arrive with a perfect road record in the Champions League this season. Dating back to the start of the group stage, Chelsea have played five and won five with three of those wins coming by two-plus goals.
More impressively, Chelsea have yet to post an outright loss on the road in all competitions since the arrival of Tuchel. In those 10 matches, the 2012 UCL champions are a whopping 8-2-0.
Match Analysis
If there’s any team that recognizes the overwhelming importance of its home knockout round leg, it’s a team that previously won three straight Champions League trophies.
A lot of bettors will look at that +235 price next to Chelsea’s name and think, “When will I ever see another price like this for a team like that?” It’s especially likely given Chelsea’s perfect road UCL record and the fact that Tuchel has NEVER lost to Real Madrid in his managerial career.
However, I’m here to tell you to stay away from a side bet in this match entirely. Combine Chelsea’s road dominance with Real’s home prowess -- Los Blancos haven’t lost at home since January 30th -- and I can’t confidently get behind betting against one team’s streak.
With that said, there are a few other bets that intrigue me. Under 2.5 goals (-165) and Under 2.25 goals (-125) are the two plays that stand out to me here. Yes, Real are damaged at the back but I trust an experienced midfield of Casemiro, Kroos and Luka Modric to limit the Chelsea attack.
Plus, in the scenario that Chelsea score the first goal (+135), expect Real to try and walk away with no more than a one-goal deficit for the return leg at Stamford Bridge.
One final lean to provide is first half goals under 1 (-160). Another high price to pay, but seeing as Chelsea have only managed a single first-half goal in their two UCL road knockout legs and Real is four of five (pushes included) to that number in their last five La Liga matches, I find a touch of value.
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