There’s nothing more fun in betting than cashing that big plus-money ticket to turn a little into a lot.
And with the Euros now only three days away, I thought it a good idea to share some of my boldest bets for the tournament.
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While these bets are certainly heavy underdogs, the prices are simply too good to ignore - both in terms of implied probability and the calculus behind the plays.
All prices are courtesy of our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook.
Bold Bet #1 - Croatia to Win Group D (+320)
What if I told you that finishing second in this group may actually be a blessing?
Tournament co-favorites England are also favored to win their group (-278), but for Gareth Southgate’s Three Lions a second-place finish may prove helpful in the long run.
Whoever wins this group will go onto face the second-place team from Group F (you know - the one with France, Germany and Portugal) while whichever team finishes second gets the runner-up from Group E (presumably either Poland or Sweden).
What’s more - assuming either England or Croatia get through that Group F opponent, they’d likely be left with a quarterfinal match against…..Spain.
Even though whoever won Group F would likely be waiting on the other half of the bracket, it’s not like the former path is a cakewalk to the semis.
But my reasoning behind this bet doesn’t lie exclusively with the bracket advantage.
Truthfully, it’s also based on the fact that I don’t trust this young England squad enough to justify that high of a group winner price.
England should win the group given strength in attack and its home-field advantage -- by tournament’s end, they could play six of seven at Wembley Stadium -- but I’d rather have +320 with the 2018 World Cup runners-up.
Finally, I think Croatia’s tactics are uniquely suited to give England headaches in their head-to-head on the first matchday.
Croatia’s strength in midfield was put on full display in 2018, and at their best they’ll be able to possess the ball and limit England’s scoring chances.
Bold Bet #2 - PARLAY: Spain to Reach Quarter-Final/Álvaro Morata Top Spain Goalscorer (+390)
To say it’s been a disappointing few competitions for the Spaniards would qualify as a huge understatement.
After winning three consecutive international competitions in 2008, 2010 and 2012, they exited the 2016 Euros and 2018 World Cup in the round of 16.
But despite a relatively young, inexperienced squad, Spain still has a clear path to the quarters.
Assuming they win a light Group E, they’ll face a third-place team from groups A, B, C or D in the round of 16.
Even if somehow Poland wins the group, I’ll still give Spain a shot against either England or Croatia in their other possible round of 16 meeting. If it’s the latter opponent, Spain will likely enter the match as a favorite.
As for the second leg of this parlay, Spain playing well usually corresponds with Morata playing well.
In the last five matches where Morata scored, Spain is 4-1-0. Additionally, the striker registered three goals in four matches at the 2016 Euros and enters this competition in great form with seven goals in his final 10 Serie A starts.
As much as I think Gerard Moreno, Dani Olmo and Ferran Torres will be valuable additions to this Spanish squad, all of them are making their Euro debut. The same is true for winger Mikel Oyarzabel.
Even though Morata only scored once in three World Cup qualifier matches this past spring, I’ll place more value on experience over youth and trust Morata to have a big tournament.
Bold Bet #3 - Portugal to Win Group F (+320)
Is it just me, or have we all collectively forgotten this Portugal team won the 2016 Euros?
And now, they enter this tournament as the third-favorite to win the group? With a significantly improved squad? Color me confused.
There’s a lot of theory behind this bet, so hang in there with me as I explain.
First is that Portugal play their two most “winnable” matches first -- against Hungary in Budapest, and against Germany in Munich.
In the France-Germany match, should either team lose outright on the first day, it could turn into a two-team race.
If Portugal win their first two matches, they may only need a point on the final day against France to win the group.
Personally, I think what would decide that two-team race is the goal differential in the match against Hungary. And I think Portugal is more capable than France of putting up a five- or six-spot against the Hungarians.
Secondly, I think the implied probability here is a little off all around.
Should Germany be favored to win the group at +130? I think not - and I don’t think they win this group 43 percent of the time as their odds indicate.
At +320, implied probability says Portugal wins this group about 24 percent of the time. I would personally have that probability a lot higher.
Ultimately, because I a) have Portugal rated better than Germany and b) think they’re capable of managing a point against France, I think they’re a good bet to win the group.
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