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We’ve reached the quarterfinal stage of the year’s final Grand Slam, the US Open. On the men’s side, we’ve got a positively exciting group of young talent while on the women’s side there is a real possibility of an American champion.
Without further ado, let’s get into some picks.
Andrey Rublev (-110) vs. Frances Tiafoe (-110)
Rublev and Tiafoe did battle last year at the US Open, when the American was a sizable underdog. What happened next was Tiafoe raised his level and played the match of his life, clobbering Rublev in what wound up being a five-set victory. Tiafoe led two sets to one and was the better player throughout, dropping the fourth in what was rather shocking fashion.
The two met again at Indian Wells, where Rublev got his revenge, but some context is needed here. For starters, Tiafoe led by a break in the first. We also must remember that Tiafoe was fresh off of an injury layoff and was without any form or fitness to speak of.
I think heading into this clash that Tiafoe is the better player. Rublev has spent more time on court and been made to work incredibly hard, and while he did come through in convincing fashion against Cam Norrie it was thanks in large part to some donations off of the Brit’s racquet.
I think Tiafoe’s backhand, which can be a huge weapon, will play a big part here. He should win backhand trades against Rublev, who is weaker off that wing, and use his athleticism to win points at the net — something the Russian is not great at.
Edge: Tiafoe -110
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Jannik Sinner (+150) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (-189)
The history between these two tells us that this should be a very tight match, but I think there’s a clear side here.
Sinner has been making a meal out of every single one of his wins, which has led him to spend a ridiculous amount of energy. There was a moment on Monday where it didn’t really feel certain he was going to have enough in the tank to finish off Ilya Ivashka. Even in the win, he had to go through an incredibly physical battle, which was very taxing on his body and mind.
It’s good practice for this match against the physically superior Alcaraz, but I’m not quite sure spending all those hours grinding against weaker opponents will be a net positive. I don’t think he’s got enough energy left in the tank to compete with Alcaraz, who looked to not even be sweating at the end of his five-set thriller against Marin Cilic. Sinner, meanwhile, looked absolutely gassed.
Sinner was able to get Alcaraz on the grass and on the clay, but here on hardcourts — where Alcaraz has played his best tennis so far in his career — the Spaniard should win easily.
Edge: Alcaraz -2.5 Games
