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US Open Best Bets for September 8

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka

Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

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We’ve reached the semifinal stage of the year’s final Grand Slam, the US Open. On the men’s side, we’ve got a positively exciting group of young talent, and on the women’s side some redemption stories.

Without further ado, let’s get into some picks.

Caroline Garcia (-155) vs. Ons Jabeur (+125)

Yes, Jabeur hits a big ball. Yes, she’s an exciting talent. She’s also crumbled every time she’s gotten deep in a Grand Slam, and her path here wasn’t exactly the most convincing either.

She was broken many times over against Ajla Tomljanovic in a very difficult match, and in the fourth round fumbled away a chance to serve for the match against Veronika Kudermetova. While she did win these showdowns, I don’t know if she’s going to have the same margin for error against Garcia.

The Frenchwoman is playing truly the best tennis of anyone remaining in the women’s draw. Her forehand is on fire, producing winners from out of nowhere against some of the best defenders on tour. Her serve has been rock solid and impossible to break. Her mental issues are behind her and I fully trust her in this match.

Edge: Garcia -150

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Iga Swiatek (-185) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (+150)

Swiatek has been living on the edge. She went a break down in the second set to Lauren Davis two matches ago and was part of a second set against Jess Pegula which featured 10 breaks of serve. She’s hardly the dominant player she was months ago when she went on a months-long winning streak, and she’s been losing to worse opponents than Sabalenka.

The Belarusian has really stepped up her game in Queens, ridding herself of the second-serve yips and straight ripping winners off of both wings. She’s been indomitable on serve, and if Pegula — a player with little pace — was able to do damage against Swiatek then I think Sabalenka will knock her out.

The bigger, stronger player here should be able to bully Swiatek from the baseline and keep her from being the aggressor in rallies. It’s how Caroline Garcia beat her this summer, and it’s how Sabalenka will win this match. She’s definitely the betting value. This is a toss up at worst.

Edge: Sabalenka +150