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We’ve reached the semifinal stage of the year’s final Grand Slam, the US Open. On the men’s side, we’ve got a positively exciting group of young talent duking it out with a chance at an American champion.
Without further ado, let’s get into some picks.
Karen Khachanov (+160) vs. Casper Ruud (-195)
If you watched both of these men play in the quarterfinals, then you know exactly where I’m going to go with this bet. One man raised his level to the highest point it’s ever been, simply playing better tennis than the odds-on favorite to win the tournament. The other was gifted unforced error after unforced error and simply stood on the court and accepted the win.
Khachanov played better tennis on Tuesday than Ruud has all tournament. He returned the biggest serve on tour with ease, floating it back to the baseline and making Nick Kyrgios incredibly uncomfortable when starting rallies. Ruud faced one of the weakest returners on tour and was hardly bothered on his serve.
Friday should be a big wake-up call for Ruud, who is lucky to even be alive in this tournament. If not for some fumbled opportunities by Tommy Paul last week, he’d be back home at this point. He’s played just one convincing match at this tournament, and that came in the win over Berrettini — who failed to even show up for the match. Khachanov is playing the better tennis.
Edge: Khachanov +160
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Carlos Alcaraz (-200) vs. Frances Tiafoe (+160)
I’m as big a fan of Big Foe as they come. I’ve seen him play all over the world and have been one of many to fall in love with his exciting game. With that said, I don’t think he’s going to win the US Open — and his run ends here against the best player in the world.
Alcaraz proved against Jannik Sinner that he not only can absorb pace and face adversity, he can also come back from playing a late-night five-setter and play another one. We had some questions about his fitness for the last year given his lack of success in Grand Slams, but he’s seemed to answer them.
The young Spaniard is going to force Tiafoe to go for lines; that’s how Sinner was able to win baseline exchanges with Alcaraz. It simply has to be that good to beat him considering his court coverage. Tightening up the margins, I don’t think Tiafoe will be quite as effective. He’s also going to win fewer points when coming to the net given the fact that Alcaraz has All-World speed, and Andrey Rublev and Rafael Nadal had either stone hands or old legs.
It’s been a great run, but I think Alcaraz is flat-out better than Tiafoe.
Edge: Alcaraz -1.5 Sets
