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Only three game days remain in the WNBA regular season with five games each on Friday and Sunday. Tonight’s WNBA slate features only one matchup between the Los Angeles Sparks and the Atlanta Dream. Let’s look at the stats and film to see where there’s value on tonight’s game.
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Atlanta Dream
Los Angeles is locked in a tight race for the final playoff seed heading into the season’s final weekend. The Sparks went 11-19 this season and currently sit a half-game out of the final playoff slot. Los Angeles needs some help to make the postseason but last night’s Liberty loss was the first necessary domino to fall. The Sparks still need to win the final two games of the regular season and hope the Mystics drop the last two matchups against the Liberty and Lynx.
The Sparks went 2-0 against the Dream so far this season with both victories coming at home. Kristi Toliver was active for the first two matchups but will miss tonight’s game due to injury. The teams averaged only 147.5 combined points in the first two games, so tonight should be another low-scoring matchup.
The Sparks held Seattle to 53 points in a dominant 28-point win in the team’s last game. Los Angeles and Atlanta each rank in the bottom three of overall offensive Points Per Possession (PPP). Each of LA’s last six outings featured under 148.5 combined points, so the Under is attainable tonight despite such a low total.
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Los Angeles scored the fewest points per game this season with the worst field goal percentage among all WNBA teams. The Sparks also struggled on the boards this season, as Los Angeles is the only team to average under 30 rebounds per game. Only two teams since 2010 have averaged fewer rebounds than the Sparks this season, and the team’s 17.6% offensive rebounding rate would rank as the second-lowest mark of all time according to HerHoopStats.
The Sparks’ defense fared much better than the team’s offense this season, with LA’s 77.1 opposing points per game ranking as the second-lowest opponent scoring average this season. Los Angeles led the league in points scored off turnovers and limited opponents to the fewest fast-break points per game. The Sparks also put up the third-best defensive rating among all teams and swiped the second-most steals per game this season.
Defensive Player of the Year candidate Brittney Sykes is the engine of the team’s defense and tied for the league lead in steals per game. The Sparks held opponents to 93.6 points per 100 possessions with Sykes on the floor this season, but teams scored 102.2 points per 100 possessions against Los Angeles with Sykes off the court.
Nia Coffey is another strong defender in the Los Angeles rotation, as the forward ranks in the top-10 of blocks per game in 23 minutes per game. Coffey only scored 8.5 points per game this season but averaged double-digit points on 48.7% shooting from deep over the last ten games, the second-best mark among all players averaging at least 1.5 made three-pointers during that span.
Erica Wheeler and Nneka Ogwumike each rank among the league’s top-10 scorers off turnovers this season. Ogwumike also ranked in the top-10 for average second-chance points while leading the team in scoring with 14.3 points per game this season. Wheeler averaged 13.5 points, second-most on the Sparks and ranked in the WNBA’s top-10 of average assists and steals per game.
LA’s 8.3 steals per game ranks behind the Dream, as Atlanta paced the league with 9.1 steals per game this season. The Dream defense performed poorly early in the season but improved since the break to allow the fourth-fewest points per game to opponents over the last ten outings. Las Vegas is the only team to allow fewer opposing points off turnovers than Atlanta this season, and the Dream earned the second-lowest turnover rate this season, so the Sparks could struggle to score without the transition opportunities the team typically thrives on.
Part of the defensive improvement stems from increased minutes for rookie point guard Aari McDonald. The third overall pick in this year’s WNBA draft only played 13.3 minutes per game before the break but averaged 18.8 minutes per game since the break, including a bump up to 21.1 minutes per game in the first five outings of September.
ANOTHER double-double kinda night for Miss Billings 👑 pic.twitter.com/BG3VwJSCzE
— Atlanta Dream (@AtlantaDream) September 11, 2021
Atlanta grabbed the second-most offensive rebounds per game this season and averaged 10 offensive boards since the break. The team’s best offensive rebounder is Monique Billings, who ranks third in the league with 2.7 offensive boards per game. Her ranking is even more impressive when considering her playing time, as she is one of only two players in the top-10 for offensive rebounds to appear in under 25 minutes per game.
The other player with limited playing time in the top-10 is her Atlanta teammate in Elizabeth Williams, who averaged 2.1 offensive boards in 23.5 minutes per game. Williams helped Atlanta on the offensive glass this season but her biggest contribution may be on defense. The seventh-year center made WNBA All-Defense first team last season and is the all-time franchise leader in blocked shots. This season, she ranks eighth in the league for blocks per game and Billings and Williams are two of the seven players to average at least one steal and one swat per game.
Los Angeles has more to play for than the lottery-bound Dream, but the recent increase in minutes for young Atlanta players such as Billings and McDonald gives me some hesitancy projecting the Sparks to win this game, as the Dream defense improved significantly since the break and Atlanta should have a rebounding advantage in this game. I’m staying off the spread tonight with no official pick, but I’d lean towards Sparks Money Line and the Under as my prediction for this matchup.
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