The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
The WNBA playoffs is in full swing after the second round concluded yesterday. The single-elimination phase of the postseason is over -- now, the four teams remaining will play in a best-of-five series the rest of the way. Let’s look at the four teams remaining.
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun
The top-seeded Connecticut Sun will host the Chicago Sky for a semifinals series after the Sky defeated the Dallas Wings and Minnesota Lynx in the first two rounds. PointsBet Sportsbook thinks facing Chicago rather than Seattle or Phoenix is a boost to Connecticut’s title odds as they were shortened from +180 to +140 after the series matchups were set. I still think the Sun should be the rightful favorites to win it all after a finishing the regular season 14 straight wins, but I’m not so sure this matchup is good for Connecticut’s chances.
The Sun went 1-2 against the Sky this season and Chicago was one of only two teams to win the season series against Connecticut this year. All three matchups came without Jonquel Jones, so the Sun and their MVP will be looking to send Candace Parker home for the third straight season -- she lost to Connecticut in the 2019 and 2020 playoffs.
The matchup between Jones and Parker will be fascinating to watch, but the X-factor in this series will be Connecticut’s defense. The Sun boast four of the 10 players to make one of the WNBA All-Defensive Teams this season, led by first-teamers Jones and guard Briann January. While January had a fantastic season in her own right, I’d argue she’s the third-best defensive guard on her own team, depending on DeWanna Bonner’s positional designation.
Bonner played as a forward in most of Connecticut’s top lineups, but the WNBA listed the veteran as a guard this season. Bonner ranked second behind Skylar Diggins-Smith for the lowest defensive points per possession (PPP) allowed among players to appear in 30 or more games, holding opponents to only 0.721 PPP overall. Bonner has 2.8 defensive win shares, the third-most among all WNBA players, and 5.3 win shares overall, according to basketball-reference. Both numbers led all guards this season and Bonner put up 15.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game, contributing to Connecticut’s 14-game win streak to end the regular season.
Jasmine Thomas had another impressive season as she set the Connecticut franchise record for all-time career assists. Defensively, Thomas also ranked in the top-15 in steals per game and had 1.9 defensive win shares, second among guards behind only Bonner.
Connecticut coach Curt Miller won Coach of the Year but proclaimed “we’re not done” at the latest Connecticut practice after finding out about the team’s awards. Miller and the Sun have championship aspirations despite the fact that Connecticut wasn’t commonly mentioned among the league’s top contenders entering this season and ranked outside the league’s top-five in preseason championship odds. The Sun outscored opponents by 12.4 points per 100 possessions, the best net rating in the WNBA, and put up a league-best 91.7 defensive rating this season.
Chicago coach James Wade garnered criticism for some of his coaching and lineup decisions this season, but led the Sky to the semifinals for the first time in his head coaching career. This Sky team is one of the oldest squads in the league and has plenty of playoff-tested veterans, led by future Hall-of-Famer Candace Parker. Parker led all players in Kevin Pelton’s playoff championships added metric and served as the engine of her hometown team in her first season playing in the Windy City. She had another excellent season this year despite limited scoring stats, and showed off her versatility and defensive prowess. Parker ranked in the top-15 in rebounds, assists and blocks per game while grading in the 95th percentile of lowest defensive PPP allowed.
Point guard Courtney Vandersloot concluded the regular season as the league’s assist leader for the fifth consecutive year and was also third in steals per game with 1.7. Vandersloot and her wife, Allie Quigley, combine to form one of the most notable backcourts in WNBA history; Chicago put up a 106.1 offensive rating in 467 minutes with the two guards sharing the floor this season, which is second in the league this year.
Chicago’s leading scorer is Kahleah Copper and she’s proven her value to the team early in this postseason. Copper averaged 19.5 points, six rebounds and three assists on 64% shooting from the field through two playoff games. Her efficiency spurred Chicago to two double-digit playoff wins in the opening rounds, as the Sky moved to 12-5 when Copper shot at least 50% from the field compared to 6-11 when Copper shot below 50% this season.
[[ad:athena]]
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
The other semifinals series features the Phoenix Mercury taking on the second-seeded Las Vegas Aces. Phoenix defeated New York and Seattle to earn a trip to Vegas, where the league’s top-two scoring teams since the break will battle for a WNBA Finals berth.
Las Vegas put up 86.5 points per game since the break with a league-high 37.4 rebounds per game and league-low 11 turnovers. Coach Bill Laimbeer’s team is known for playing at a fast pace with limited volume from beyond the arc. The Aces actually lead the league in three-point percentage since the break, albeit on only 12.9 attempts from deep compared to 11th-ranked Connecticut’s 18 three-pointers attempted per game in that span.
Phoenix scored the second-most points in the league since the break with the WNBA’s highest field goal percentage in that time. The Mercury also ranked second behind the Aces for three-point percentage and rebounding average in the season’s latter half.
The Aces allowed the second-fewest points off turnovers this season and no team scored fewer points from opponent giveaways than the Mercury this year. Las Vegas also led the league in average points in the paint and allowed the third-fewest second-chance points, fast-break points and points in the paint.
The story of this series will be if the Mercury’s stars can overcome the impressive depth of Laimbeer’s squad. No team in WNBA history boasted seven double-digit scorers until this season’s Aces, so Las Vegas has an argument as the deepest team in WNBA history.
These teams faced off in the final game of the regular season and despite the low stakes of that matchup, it ended in a classic finish as Las Vegas center JiSu Park closed out the 84-83 win with an epic rejection of Brianna Turner‘s game-winning layup attempt.
Another angle of @jisupark_twt’s game saving rejection 🙅♀️ pic.twitter.com/QwKAGfwMf0
— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) September 19, 2021
Phoenix played best in the second half this season but may not be able to overcome deficits against the Aces this series. Las Vegas went 17-2 in games with a halftime lead and 20-1 when leading opponents at the end of the third quarter, according to Las Vegas Aces PR.
Brittney Griner has been double-teamed most of the playoffs and showed improvement in her passing ability from the post, but Las Vegas will throw two of the best interior players in the league at Griner during this series, Liz Cambage and reigning MVP A’ja Wilson. Cambage and Wilson combined to average 32.5 points, 17.5 boards and 2.9 blocks per game this season in the Aces frontcourt. They both ranked in the top-15 in second-chance points per game and should challenge Griner in the post and on the glass.
Phoenix will need to find other ways to get quality looks in the paint besides simply relying on Griner’s size. Luckily, the team has star point guard Skylar Diggins-Smith. Diggins-Smith ranked in the top-10 in scoring with 17.7 points per game on the highest field-goal percentage among all guards scoring at least 15 points per game. Diggins-Smith’s quickness and ability to attack the rim allowed her to get to the line a league-high 198 times this season, averaging 1.7 free throw attempts per game more than the next-closest guard.
Diggins-Smith will need to stay aggressive looking for free throws in this game since Las Vegas allowed opponents to get to the line on only 8.6% of defensive possessions this season, the lowest foul rate in the league. The Aces were even stingier when guarding pick-and-roll ball handlers, conceding free throws on only 6.6% of those defensive possessions.
I expect both of these series to be tightly contested. However, the WNBA Finals featured the top-two seeded teams in four of the five years since the league changed the playoffs to the current double-bye format, and I think the favored Sun and Aces will meet for a championship next week.
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
