The first two games of the 2022 WNBA Playoffs begin on Wednesday, August 17 with a 8:00 PM ET matchup between the Chicago Sky and the New York Liberty, followed by a 10:00 PM ET clash between the Las Vegas Aces and the Phoenix Mercury. After looking through the markets available for tonight’s playoff slate, I see value in betting on points props for the Las Vegas backcourt.
Las Vegas finished with the best offense in the WNBA this season and played at the fastest pace in the league, so there should be plenty of points scored against the Mercury defense. Phoenix ranked in the league’s bottom-five for defensive rating this year and allowed opposing guards to average 57.7 points per game, which was the highest mark in the W by far.
I’m targeting all three elite guards on the Aces to go over their respective points totals in Game 1 of this series. While A’ja Wilson leads the team in usage, she has a tough matchup against Brianna Turner and I expect the guards to take on a bigger scoring role tonight.
Kelsey Plum finished the regular season on a tear, with at least 22 points in each of her last three games and an average north of 23 points per game in that stretch. Plum also scored at least 20 points in all three matchups against Phoenix this season. The 2022 WNBA All-Star MVP ranked second in the league in scoring and this is the Aces guard I’m most confident in betting on tonight.
The Mercury allowed opponents to shoot the second-highest accuracy on above-the-break threes this year, which is a bad sign considering Plum led the WNBA in three-pointers made from above the break.
EDGE: Kelsey Plum to Score 20+ Points -122 (FanDuel)
WNBA 2022 leaders in Field Goals Made by Zone: Data via WNBA.com Chart by Jake Wolf At the Rim: Brionna Jones, Sylvia Fowles, Alyssa Thomas In the Paint (Non-RA): Breanna Stewart, A’ja Wilson, Nneka Ogwumike Mid-Range: Courtney Williams, Chelsea Gray, Aerial Powers Corner Three: Azura Stevens, Shey Peddy Above-the-Break Three: Kelsey Plum, Diana Taurasi, Rhyne Howard, Sabrina Ionescu, Arike Ogunbowale
Jackie Young has more variance in her scoring compared to Plum, as she ranks just fourth on the team in usage, but the AP Most Improved Player is an explosive scorer who scored 20 points in two of her three games against the Mercury this year. Young dropped 20 or more in two consecutive games prior to a limited regular season finale due to injury precaution.
Young is not listed on the injury report tonight and I expect a big game from the first-time All-Star. Rather than taking the over on her points prop of 16.5, I’d go for the plus-money odds on Young to score at least 20 points, listed at +136.
EDGE: Jackie Young to Score 20+ Points +136 (FanDuel)
Chelsea Gray closed the regular season with a 33-point outburst against Seattle for her third outing above 20 points over the last five games. The veteran guard averaged more than 20 points per game in that span. Gray played just 15 minutes during the season opener in Phoenix., which dulled down her season stats against the Mercury.
With an average of 18.4 points per 36 minutes against Phoenix this year, I’ll back Gray to go over her points prop of 13.5 tonight, with odds of -130 on FanDuel.
EDGE: Chelsea Gray Over 13.5 Points -130 (FanDuel)
Bonus Picks:
As I mentioned in my series preview article, the Liberty lead the league in percentage of points scored from beyond the arc, so there’s plenty of variance with this offense on a night-to-night basis. After New York finished the regular season strong to earn a playoff spot, I expect the threes to keep falling tonight. A solid shooting performance should allow New York to keep Game 1 within single digits so I’d lean towards the Liberty spread as +10 underdogs at PointsBet Sportsbook.
My favorite prop in the early game is on Kahleah Copper to exceed 16.5 points. Copper averaged more than 20 points per 26 minutes against New York this season and is a dominant finisher at the rim. New York struggled to contain slashing wings at times this season, including allowing Copper’s former Sky teammate Diamond DeShields to score a season-high 25 points earlier this month.
EDGE: Kahleah Copper Over 16.5 Points -114 (FanDuel)
