Probably the most wide-open conference of the Power 4 is the Big 12. Last year’s winner Arizona State is the favorite this season. You may recall, however, that they were picked to finish last in the conference a year ago at this time. Remember, the five teams picked to contend in the Big 12 last season finished a combined 26-35 and just 13-32 in conference play. The preseason contenders may not struggle to that degree this season, but this conference appears to be up for grabs again this season.
Eric Froton (@CFFroton) of NBC Sports has taken a deep dive into the conference and shares his thoughts on the top contenders in the Big 12 offering an overview of each along with a look at players to watch, each school’s path to the college football playoff, and a play on the projected win total for each of the schools.
Arizona State
Head Coach: Kenny Dillingham (3rd Year)
2024 Record: 11-3
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost CFP Playoff Peach Bowl vs. Texas 39-31 in 2 OT
Offense Ranking: 28th
Returning Starters: 7
Defense Ranking: 29th
Returning Starters: 7
Arizona State Team Overview
Arizona State’s 2024 campaign under Kenny Dillingham marked a stunning turnaround, as the Sun Devils surged to an 11–3 record and a #31 SP+ national finish just one year after ranking 107th. The offense blossomed into a Top 30 unit by SP+ (28th), fueled by a run game that ranked 7th in rushing success rate and a passing attack that finished 10th in adjusted net yards per attempt. Defensively, ASU held opponents to 5.23 yards per play (41st) and ranked Top 30 nationally in havoc created by their secondary, though their linebacker (116th Havoc rate) and defensive line (76th Havoc rate) production remained average at best. Despite ranking near the bottom in special teams SP+ (131st), the Sun Devils dramatically overachieved preseason expectations with elite fourth-down efficiency, turnover margin (+14) and a +13.0 points per game delta over projections, the highest in the country.
Arizona State Player to Watch: WR Jordyn Tyson
Tyson has all the makings of a topflight collegiate wide receiver but there are still some questions in NFL Draft circles as to his overall speed/athleticism ceiling. His ball tracking, body control, hands and route savvy are all strengths, but Tyson needs to put together
Arizona State makes the College Football Playoff if:
Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson recreate their 2024 magic, Kyson Brown and Kanye Udoh combine to replace the devastating impact of the departed Cam Skattebo, and their defense improves on the 24 sacks of a year ago to create more backfield disruption. ASU will need to be road warriors and handle business in Waco (Baylor), in Salt Lake City (Utah), and in Ames (Iowa State) if they want to make the Big 12 Championship Game again.
Arizona State Win Total at DraftKings
Coming off their historic turnaround from 3 to 11 wins, ASU is aggressively lined at 8.5 Wins (Under -120). With tough road games at Mississippi State, Baylor, Utah, Iowa State, and Colorado combined with games in Tempe against potentially troubling teams like Texas State, TCU and Houston, I think the post-Playoff hangover takes hold and Arizona State levels out a bit back to a still strong 8 Wins, making this an Under play for me at -120.
Utah Utes
Head Coach: Kyle Whittingham
2024 Record: 5-7 (3-6 B12)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: None
Offense Ranking: 99th
Returning Starters: 5
Defense Ranking: 18th
Returning Starters: 7
Utah Team Overview
The 2024 Utah Utes stumbled to a 5–7 (2–7 Pac-12) finish despite boasting a Top 20 defense (18th in SP+). Offensively is where the Utes struggled ranking among the nation’s worst units, ranking 99th in SP+ and bottom-five in success rate, third-down conversions, red zone efficiency, and yards per drive.
Their season began with a promising 4–0 start, but the Utes collapsed down the stretch, losing seven of their final eight games, including narrow defeats to BYU and Iowa State despite postgame win expectancies above 50%. Special teams (32nd SP+) and a high-impact havoc defense weren’t enough to offset their dismal offense, ultimately dooming Utah to their first losing season since 2013.
Utah Player to Watch: Devon Dampier
After a full season of abject misery on the offensive side of the ball, the Utes faithful are putting their hopes in Devon Dampier to see if he can recreate the New Mexico magic in Salt Lake City. How he performs will dictate the direction of Utah’s season.
Dampier was a dual-threat force, rushing for 1,187 yards and 19 touchdowns on 7.91 yards per carry while producing a stellar 64.7% rushing success rate and 51.3% first-down conversion rate for UNM last season. He consistently created chunk plays with 25.8% of his carries going for 10+ yards and showed advanced elusiveness with 0.27 missed tackles forced per rush. Dampier is a gargantuan upgrade over 2024 starter Isaac Wilson.
Utah makes the College Football Playoff if:
OC Jason Beck’s offense takes hold quickly and the Devon Dampier Heisman Train gets rolling heading into Week 7 vs. Arizona State. The experienced offensive line fulfills their Joe Moore Award upside and clears the way for 200+ YPG and the defense continues to be a lockdown unit that holds their opponents under 20 points per game.
Utah Win Total courtesy of DraftKings
Utah’s Win (-175 Over) mark is rightfully juiced to the Over 7.5. Utah should be favored in just about every game this season and gets three of their four toughest opponents at home (Texas Tech/Az State/Kansas State). The value is sapped out of this market at -175 to the Over, but I still feel confident Utah can hit the 8-win mark.
Kansas State
Head Coach: Chris Klieman (7th year)
2024 Record: 9-4 (5-4 B12)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost 44-41 to Rutgers in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.
Offense Ranking: 29
Returning Starters: 5
Defense Ranking: 23
Returning Starters: 5
Kansas State Team Overview
Kansas State enters the 2025 season on the heels of a strong 9–4 campaign that matched its predicted win total exactly, suggesting the Wildcats performed to expectation. Offensively, Chris Klieman’s squad was explosive and efficient, ranking 13th in yards per play (6.57), 4th in yards per carry (6.5), and 5th in IsoPPP, all while boasting the No. 2 mark nationally in yards before contact per rush (3.35). The defense finished 23rd in SP+, anchored by a Top 5 success rate (4th) and a stingy front that ranked 15th in stuff rate and 17th in opportunity rate allowed. Despite inconsistency in finishing drives and close-game execution, the Wildcats return as a legitimate Big 12 contender with a balanced and well-graded statistical profile on both sides of the ball.
Kansas State Player to Watch: Avery Johnson
If Kansas State is going to ascend to the National Championship picture, Avery Johnson needs to develop his pocket passing ability to be commensurate with his eclectic ability to scramble and make plays outside of structure. If he can do that, then Kansas State should win the Big 12 Conference come December.
Kansas State makes the College Football Playoff if:
Avery Johnson continues his upward developmental trajectory, Dylan Edwards electrifies the 35+ PPG offense, and the secondary finds a CB1 to replace departed star Jacob Parrish.
Kansas State Win Total courtesy of DraftKings
9.5 Wins (Over -115) is a lofty total that the Wildcats have failed to clear in 4 of the last five seasons and offers little margin for error. Still Kansas State should be comfortable favorites in 8 games and at worst toss-ups in 4 others, making this a pretty tight line and a stay away for me.
Texas Tech
Head Coach: Joey Maguire (4th year)
2024 Record: 8-5 (6-3 B12)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost to Arkansas 39-26 in the Liberty Bowl
Offense Ranking: 27th
Returning Starters: 6 (9 with transfers)
Defense Ranking: 92nd
Returning Starters: 5 (10 with transfers)
Texas Tech Team Overview
Texas Tech heads into the 2025 season following an 8–5 campaign that was more chaotic than consistent, with a -2.7 second-order win margin suggesting they overachieved relative to their underlying performance. Offensively, the Red Raiders were aggressive and fast-paced (No. 1 in plays per game), finishing 27th in SP+ behind a Top 20 scoring efficiency (2.76 points per drive) and strong third-down conversion rate (48.1%, 10th nationally). Defensively, however, Tech was porous—ranking 92nd in SP+ and 124th in yards per play allowed—struggling especially with explosiveness (131st IsoPPP) and finishing drives (106th in points per scoring opportunity allowed). With Joey McGuire returning following a third straight bowl appearance, the program shows progress, but improving defensive efficiency and avoiding negative turnover regression will be crucial to taking the next step in the new-look Big 12. Fortunately for Tech fans, nobody in the Big 12 hit the transfer portal harder than the well-funded Red Raiders.
Texas Tech Player to Watch: Quinten Joyner
Texas Tech rode RB Tahj Brooks hard as their true bell cow rusher, plying him with 586 carries over the last two years. USC transfer Quinten Joyner is expected to take over the lead rusher duties, but it could be more of a timeshare with talented RB2 Ja’Koby Williams still in the RB room. It will be interesting to see how the carries are divided up in Lubbock.
Texas Tech Makes the College Football Playoff if:
Behren Morton is fully recovered from offseason shoulder surgery and is the perfect conduit for new OC Mack Leftwich’s offense, leading to a 40 points per game eruption. The defense finally comes together following the influx of new premium talent and cuts their points allowed last season by two touchdowns to 20 PPG. They manage to take two out of three road games against Utah, Arizona State, and Kansas State which would assure the Red Raiders of a Playoff spot.
Texas Tech Win Total courtesy of DraftKings
The DK line of 8.5 Wins (Over -140) is a big number for a Texas Tech program that hasn’t won 9 games in a regular season since 2009. The schedule is manageable outside of the brutal three game road stretch at Utah, at Arizona State, and at Kansas State, as they dodge Baylor and have seven home games vs. just five road tilts. Expectations are extremely high in Lubbock after the NIL spending spree that was unleashed this offseason. However, paying -140 for TT to win 9 games is a pricey proposition at this stage of the offseason. I would rather take a shot at Texas Tech to win the B12 at 6-to-1 or Make the Playoff at +450.
Baylor
Head Coach: Dave Aranda (6th Year)
2024 Record: 8-5 (6-3 B12)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost 44-31 to LSU in Texas Bowl
Offense SP+ Rank (2024): 25th
Returning Starters (Offense): 9
Defense SP+ Rank (2024): 61st
Returning Starters (Defense): 5
Baylor Team Overview
Baylor rebounded from a 3–9 season in 2023 to finish 8–5 in 2024, behind a Top 25 offense (25th SP+) that ranked 23rd nationally in yards per play (6.33) and 12th in passing success rate (47.6%). The offense operated with tempo (14th in seconds/play) and generated explosive plays (10th in 20+ yard play rate) but still struggled with penalties (103rd) and red zone efficiency (50th in TD%).
Defensively, the Bears were inconsistent, ranking 61st in SP+ while finishing 75th or worse in yards/play allowed, EPA/play, and points/drive, despite an improved front that ranked 20th in rushing success rate allowed. Their +6 turnover margin and strong 6-0 stretch to close the regular season helped mask a defense that ranked 97th in yards per drive and 120th in marginal explosiveness allowed.
Baylor Player to Watch: Sawyer Robertson
QB Sawyer Robertson took over for last year’s starting QB DeQuan Finn and promptly helped Baylor rattle off six consecutive wins to end the 2024 regular season. He may be the best of a strong group of Big 12 signal callers.
Baylor makes the College Football Playoff if:
Baylor’s transfer infusion on the interior defensive line solidifies their run defense and they are able to upset Auburn and on the road at SMU in their first two games of the season. Even if things don’t go their way in the non-conference, Baylor gets their toughest B12 foes ASU, Kansas State and Utah at home and can forge their own path to the B12 Championship Game if they hold serve in McLane Stadium.
Baylor Win Total courtesy of DraftKings
Baylor’s brutal non-conference schedule vs. Auburn and at SMU helps to suppress their 7.5 Win (Under -115) line. Despite those tough contests, Baylor could very well be favored in all their B12 tilts thanks to a 5-game home slate featuring their toughest conference opponents. I lean Over 7.5 Wins for Baylor.
Iowa State
Head Coach: Matt Campbell (10th Year)
2024 Record: 11-3 (6-3 B12)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Beat Miami 42-41 in the Pop-Tarts Bowl
Offense Ranking: 44th
Returning Starters: 7
Defense Ranking: 32nd
Returning Starters: 6
Iowa State Team Overview
Despite finishing the 2024 season with a glossy 11–3 record, Iowa State significantly overachieved its underlying metrics, posting just 7.9 second-order wins and ranking only 35th in SP+. The Cyclones thrived on turnover luck (+9 margin, 19th nationally) and fourth-down efficiency (80%, 2nd), masking an offense that ranked 92nd in success rate and struggled mightily on standard downs (111th in SD success rate). QB Rocco Becht generated big plays to his star wideouts Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, with ISU ranking 22nd in marginal explosiveness. However, the overall pass game efficiency waned at times, as is evidenced by their 74th-ranked passing success rate. While the defense held firm in red zone scoring and created havoc in the secondary (12th in DB havoc rate), the front seven struggled with run fits and sack generation, as Iowa State finished bottom-25 nationally in rushing success rate allowed and sack rate on standard downs. Heading into 2025, Matt Campbell’s team will need improved down-to-down consistency and fewer dependence on high-leverage conversions to replicate last year’s 11-win total in an expanded and deep Big 12.
Iowa State Player to Watch: Chase Sowell
Chase Sowell transfers over from Eastern Carolina and is expected to take over the X-WR role vacated by Jayden Higgins. How Sowell and fellow transfer Xavier Hutchinson replace Higgins and Jaylin Noel will determine how far the Cyclones can go this season.
Iowa State makes the College Football Playoff if:
The passing game gels and Carson Hansen rushes for 100 yards and ISU gets off to a hot start and knocks off Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland Week 0. They will need to beat in-state rival Iowa in Week 3 and have the luxury of hosting Arizona State while dodging Texas Tech and Baylor in conference play, allowing Iowa State to run the Big 12 table and make a second-consecutive Big 12 Championship Game appearance.
Iowa State Win Total courtesy of DraftKings
This line sits at a relatively balanced 7.5 Wins (-135 Under). With Iowa State having continuity everywhere except for the additions at defensive line and wide receiver, and having a rather favorable in-conference schedule, I lean the Over 7.5 Wins (+115) at the current prices.
These are the favorites to claim the Big 12 title at season’s end and guarantee themselves a spot in the College Football Playoff. However, the conference is wide open, and its history promises the unexpected at points throughout the season.
Read More: Froton Focuses on the contenders in the ACC
