DraftKings’ concession to the Daytona 500 being one of the least predictable races on the calendar shows up in the fact that only four drivers have salary caps greater than $10k this week; usually this number is six. Given his recent strength at Daytona International Speedway, Hamlin easily tops the chart. The cap managers have become enamored with Chase Elliott as well, who sits just below Hamlin even though he only earned his first Daytona top-five just two races ago.
Identifying potential dark horses on the carburetor-restricted superspeedways is easy. The unpredictability of the draft and potential for a ‘Big One’ crash are factors that come into play every time NASCAR heads to Daytona or Talladega Superspeedway and that often means drivers who spent the first half of the race in the back half of the pack are the ones who survive.
When accidents are early enough and frequent enough, that means those longshots pop up at the front of the pack. Last summer for the Coke Zero 400 BJ McLeod, Josh Bilicki, and Justin Haley all added their names to the list of top-10 finishers. Tyler Reddick earned a top-five.
To win this week, players will almost certainly need to set multiple rosters with a mix of marquee teams and longshots. Just don’t go overboard because no matter what you do, the odds of at least a couple of your drivers sustaining damage during the Daytona 500 are high.
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Group A: Most Expensive (>=$10,000)
Denny Hamlin ($10,500)
Hamlin has three Daytona wins to his credit, including two of the last three Daytona 500s. Last year, he finished fifth in this race and was third in 2018, giving him four consecutive top-fives. He made a rare mistake in his Duel 150 qualification race on Thursday, but that does not hurt his handicap. The Next Gen car will take a while to figure out and Hamlin now knows how much brake pressure to apply to keep from spinning on pit road.
Ryan Blaney ($10,000)
Blaney also learned a lesson Thursday night. After getting passed for the lead in the closing laps, he said he was not prepared for when the run was going to develop. He will be much more aware on Sunday. Both qualification races were marked by breakaway performances by the Ford camp. That may be attributable to their having a better strategy, or it may be that they draft better as a group. On the chance the second is the case, be liberal with the selection of the Blue Oval.
Group B: (Between $9,900 and $8,000)
Kevin Harvick ($9,200)
More than $1,000 cheaper than Hamlin, Harvick is the only other driver in the field this week with multiple Daytona wins. There are some caveats: his most recent win came in 2010 and on Thursday night he lost the draft and finished well off the pace. That is offset by back-to-back, top-five finishes in his last two Daytona 500s. He is also extremely hungry for a win after getting shut out in 2021.
Brad Keselowski ($8,200)
The cap managers were caught a little by surprise regarding Keselowski’s potential – and if the truth be told, so were we. While we knew Daytona was the perfect place for him to make noise in his new RFK Racing ride, we didn’t necessarily expect him to win his qualification race. Even that would not be enough to handicap him near the top of the order if not for the fact that teammate Chris Buescher also ran well in his duel and that the eight dominant cars in the combined race were all Fords. Keselowski was challenging for the win of this race last year before he triggered a ‘Big One’ crash.
Group C: (Between $7,900 and $6,500)
Chris Buescher ($7,800)
We would have liked Buescher at this level regardless of whether he won on Thursday night, but that certainly didn’t hurt his handicap. He has been on our radar screen on the superspeedways since he first joined Jack Roush’s team in 2020. That year, he earned top-10s at Daytona and Talladega until his luck ran out in the fall. He struggled through his next three attempts, but crossed under the checkers second in Daytona 2 before getting disqualified. He rebounded to finish sixth in the YellaWood 500 at Talladega last fall.
Justin Haley ($7,400)
Haley has a knack for this style of racing. He’s won four of the last eight Daytona and Talladega races in the Xfinity series and never finished outside the top 15 in Cup. His win in the 2019 Coke Zero 400 doesn’t move the needle on his handicap because it came in a rain-shortened race after a surprise shower caught most of the field on pit road. Then again, that victory gives Haley confidence and certainly doesn’t hurt matters either.
Group D: (Less than or equal to $6,500)
Corey LaJoie ($5,500)
LaJoie’s eighth-place finish in the 2020 Daytona 500 might have been a bit of a surprise to many, but it came on the heels of a sixth-place finish in the Coke Zero 400 in the previous season. Until drivers start stringing top-10s together on superspeedways, it is easy to ignore singular results, but LaJoie also finished in the top 10 in last year’s 500, which now gives him three top-10s in the last five races on this track. In the summer, he finished 16th in the Coke Zero 400 – and that is acceptable for a driver at this level.
On the other hand, streaks can evaporate quickly. After earning three straight top-10s in 2018/2019, Ty Dillon finished in the 20s in his next two starts.
Harrison Burton ($6,200)
Daytona can either be extremely kind or treacherous to rookie drivers. Often, freshman find that the upperclassmen don’t want to play with them, but Burton has three readymade teammates in Joey Logano, Blaney, and Austin Cindric. More importantly, on Thursday he showed the field that he can draft in the lead pack. Burton is quite capable of earning a top-10 this week and it would not be surprising to see him get a top-five. That is an incredible value for a driver at this level.
The top-10 points’ earners from the 2021 Daytona 500 were: Denny Hamlin (85.75), Ross Chastain (67.15), Michael McDowell (64.4), Austin Cindric (56.1), Chase Elliott (54.1), Cole Custer (50.95), Jamie McMurray (50.6), Kevin Harvick (49.6), Ryan Preece (47.05), Corey LaJoie (45.6).
Last 45 Days
(including end of 2021)
Driver | Avg. | Total | Avg. | This | Points |
Group A |
|
|
|
|
|
7.86 | 489.80 | 69.97 | $10,200 | 48.02 | |
9.57 | 429.40 | 61.34 | $10,400 | 41.29 | |
10.43 | 344.95 | 49.28 | $10,500 | 32.85 | |
12.86 | 254.45 | 36.35 | $10,000 | 25.45 | |
Group B |
|
|
|
|
|
13.29 | 248.10 | 35.44 | $8,200 | 30.26 | |
15.00 | 280.70 | 40.10 | $9,400 | 29.86 | |
13.71 | 242.10 | 34.59 | $8,400 | 28.82 | |
16.14 | 248.35 | 35.48 | $8,800 | 28.22 | |
14.43 | 253.50 | 36.21 | $9,000 | 28.17 | |
14.14 | 251.00 | 35.86 | $9,200 | 27.28 | |
19.29 | 205.85 | 29.41 | $8,000 | 25.73 | |
15.71 | 231.65 | 33.09 | $9,600 | 24.13 | |
17.00 | 206.40 | 29.49 | $9,800 | 21.06 | |
20.86 | 176.15 | 25.16 | $8,600 | 20.48 | |
20.71 | 166.10 | 23.73 | $8,300 | 20.01 | |
Group C |
|
|
|
|
|
14.00 | 242.05 | 34.58 | $7,600 | 31.85 | |
15.14 | 242.50 | 34.64 | $7,800 | 31.09 | |
18.86 | 190.80 | 27.26 | $6,500 | 29.35 | |
16.29 | 218.05 | 31.15 | $7,700 | 28.32 | |
20.57 | 173.50 | 24.79 | $7,200 | 24.10 | |
20.71 | 163.80 | 23.40 | $6,800 | 24.09 | |
23.14 | 134.15 | 19.16 | $6,700 | 20.02 | |
23.43 | 129.10 | 18.44 | $7,900 | 16.34 | |
27.00 | 86.80 | 12.40 | $7,400 | 11.73 | |
|
|
| $7,500 | - | |
|
|
| $7,000 | - | |
Group D |
|
|
|
|
|
17.57 | 210.50 | 30.07 | $6,000 | 35.08 | |
18.86 | 191.35 | 27.34 | $5,800 | 32.99 | |
24.67 | 98.90 | 16.48 | $4,500 | 21.98 | |
25.86 | 112.70 | 16.10 | $5,500 | 20.49 | |
28.14 | 79.45 | 11.35 | $4,800 | 16.55 | |
28.50 | 52.00 | 13.00 | $4,500 | 11.56 | |
16.00 | 34.00 | 34.00 | $5,600 | 6.07 | |
36.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | $4,500 | 0.67 | |
|
|
| $6,300 | - | |
|
|
| $6,200 | - | |
|
|
| $5,300 | - | |
|
|
| $5,200 | - | |
|
|
| $5,100 | - | |
|
|
| $4,900 | - | |
|
|
| $4,700 | - | |
|
|
| $4,600 | - |
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2021 YellaWood 500 (Talladega 2)
2021 Coke Zero Sugar 400 (Daytona 2)
2021 Geico 500 (Talladega 1)
