It was not simply the luck of the draw that Daytona International Speedway was the final regular season race. NASCAR wanted to ensure every driver’s fans were engaged until the final lap. When the smoke cleared, Ryan Blaney stood in Victory Lane, but several winless drivers lined up behind him in the top 10.
It’s hard to ignore the momentum Blaney has gathered in the last two races and the 10 playoff bonus points he earned elevated him to the second seeding. There will be a lot of shuffling over the course of the next three weeks as NASCAR heads to the toughest track on the circuit, Darlington Raceway, and then two short tracks.
Four drivers will be eliminated and then the Round of 12 has two wild cards with one more carburetor-restricted superspeedway event at Talladega Superspeedway and the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval.
Once the drivers get to the Round of 8, it will take horsepower and handling as two similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track events are on tap. The only driver practically guaranteed to make it to the end is Kyle Larson with his current 52 bonus points and a strong likelihood that he will add to that number over the next six weeks.
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Projected to make the Championship
Chase Elliott (2 wins / 3 stage wins / 2,021 points)
PointsBet Odds: +600
Power Ranking: 1 (5.71)
Points’ Standings: 4
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 15.50
Richmond: 9.80
Bristol: 9.60
The next three tracks are not particularly favorable to Elliott, but he only needs to outrun four drivers to clear the first hurdle. Once that is accomplished, he has the Charlotte Roval in the Round of 12 and Martinsville in the Round of 8 to help move him forward. We’ve been saying for a while that he needs to win on an oval in order to set himself up as a legitimate contender, and that will probably happen.
Kyle Larson (5 wins / 12 stage wins / 2,052 points)
PointsBet Odds: +270
Power Ranking: 2 (5.72)
Points’ Standings: 1
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 2.33
Richmond: 17.00
Bristol: 9.00
A lot can happen in the course of 10 weeks, so it’s too soon to engrave Larson’s name on the Cup just yet. It seems highly unlikely that he will not be a part of the Championship 4 because right now he has a 31-point advantage over fifth in the points. He has a great opportunity to add to his playoff bonus total this week at Darlington and he’s going to be a favorite on the three similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks as well.
Ryan Blaney (3 wins / 4 stage wins / 2,024 points)
PointsBet Odds: +1600
Power Ranking: 2 (6.07)
Points’ Standings: 2
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 16.17
Richmond: 18.20
Bristol: 14.80
Perhaps we are being a little too enthusiastic about Blaney’s odds to make it all the way to the end, but it is difficult to ignore the momentum he brings to Darlington. Joey Logano is fading. Brad Keselowski is a short timer and may well be looking to 2022 already. Blaney is young and focused. He may also be looking over his shoulder wondering what the plans are for Austin Cindric in the next few years. Winning a championship makes that angst evaporate.
Denny Hamlin (0 wins / 5 stage wins / 2,015 points)
PointsBet Odds: +900
Power Ranking: 2 (7.00)
Points’ Standings: 7
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 10.50
Richmond: 7.60
Bristol: 11.60
If Hamlin does not run well at Darlington, this prediction could change next week. As close as he has come on a number of occasions, it is hard to believe Hamlin is not going to win before the season is over. If those wins are strategically placed, his current seeding will get progressively better. For the next six races and 12 stages, it will be imperative to keep the competition from earning bonuses and Hamlin is one of the most aggressive drivers in the field.
Projected to Advance to Round 3
Martin Truex Jr. (3 wins / 5 stage wins / 2,024 points)
PointsBet Odds: +800
Power Ranking: 2 (11.81)
Points’ Standings: 3
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 10.83
Richmond: 2.40
Bristol: 20.80
Truex was the hottest driver in the field for a little while, but he has faded in recent weeks and barely clings to the Power Rankings top 10. The good news is that he is a streaky driver who can unexpectedly rattle off wins. His next great opportunity to do so will come at Richmond, where he swept Victory Lane in 2019 and has a current five-race, top-five streak.
William Byron (1 win / 3 stage wins / 2,014 points)
PointsBet Odds: +1500
Power Ranking: 2 (11.89)
Points’ Standings: 8
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 18.67
Richmond: 17.00
Bristol: 21.20
Byron’s three-year averages are not all that impressive, but Hendrick Motorsports has run so well this season that bettors and players need to take those with a grain of salt. We have elevated Byron over Alex Bowman for the moment because the No. 24 team has made fewer mistakes and been more consistent. Byron has back-to-back top-fives at Darlington and if he can back that up, he will start the playoffs on the right foot.
Kyle Busch (2 wins / 3 stage wins / 2,022 points)
PointsBet Odds: +700
Power Ranking: 2 (12.50)
Points’ Standings: 4
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 8.80
Richmond: 5.00
Bristol: 6.20
Busch did not make it to this round last year. He scored his only win of 2020 at Texas after being eliminated from playoff contention. We think he will do a little better this year, but he has not shown the type of strength it takes to get all the way to the Championship 4 unless Blaney or Hamlin stumble.
Alex Bowman (3 wins / 0 stage wins / 2,015 points)
PointsBet Odds: +1400
Power Ranking: 2 (14.88)
Points’ Standings: 6
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 14.00
Richmond: 12.40
Bristol: 19.80
Hendrick Motorsports has been so strong this year that it would be surprising if all four didn’t make it to the Round of 8. With some inconsistency, Bowman is the driver most likely to fail to live up to this prediction, however. If he struggles at Darlington and is forced to make up points, he could spend the remainder of the schedule playing catch up.
Projected to Advance to Round 2
Kevin Harvick (0 wins / 0 stage wins / 2,002 points)
PointsBet Odds: +1500
Power Ranking: 2 (11.07)
Points’ Standings: 16
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 3.17
Richmond: 8.80
Bristol: 14.80
At the beginning of the year, you would have gotten long odds on a bet that Harvick would enter the playoffs as the lowest seeded driver. Stewart-Haas Racing is struggling and there does not seem to be an end in sight. Still, Harvick at his worst is capable of advancing out of the Round of 12 – but if he cannot win one of the next six races, it’s unlikely that he will make it to the Round of 8.
Christopher Bell (1 win / 0 stage wins / 2,005 points)
PointsBet Odds: +2000
Power Ranking: 2 (11.24)
Points’ Standings: 12
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 20.75
Richmond: 9.50
Bristol: 18.50
Experience matters and Bell has the least at Joe Gibbs Racing. If the organization was currently as strong as Hendrick, we would rank the driver of the No. 20 a little higher, but once he clears this first hurdle there are going to be too many points separating him from the bubble and he is going to consistently get beaten by his teammates.
Joey Logano (1 win / 5 stage wins / 2,013 points)
PointsBet Odds: +1200
Power Ranking: 2 (15.21)
Points’ Standings: 9
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 9.33
Richmond: 6.60
Bristol: 11.00
When Logano won his 2018 championship he was the underdog. This is one of the predictions where our confidence level is low, but the way both he and Keselowski have run in the past several races has been underwhelming. Pay close attention for the next couple of weeks to see if they were sandbagging, but wait before you place a wager on him to win the Cup; it will take a while for his odds to break the 10/1 mark.
Brad Keselowski (1 win / 2 stage wins / 2,008 points)
PointsBet Odds: +1200
Power Ranking: 2 (15.48)
Points’ Standings: 10
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 9.67
Richmond: 7.00
Bristol: 14.40
It was a bit of a coin toss as to whether we believe Keselowski or Kurt Busch will advance out of the first round. Ultimately we settled on the No. 2 driver because Team Penske is stronger than Chip Ganassi Racing. If Keselowski wrecks at Darlington, our opinion may change, however.
Projected to Fail to Advance to Round 2
Tyler Reddick (0 wins / 2 stage wins / 2,003 points)
PointsBet Odds: +10000
Power Ranking: 2 (12.86)
Points’ Standings: 15
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 13.75
Richmond: 15.50
Bristol: 20.00
First time playoff contenders often have a difficult time advancing, so we have marked Reddick as low hanging fruit. That might not be the case if he had not squandered his momentum with mistakes in the last two races. He’s capable of getting back into top-10 form, and could be one of the most surprising Cinderella stories of this round.
Kurt Busch (1 win / 2 stage wins / 2,008 points)
PointsBet Odds: +3500
Power Ranking: 2 (12.81)
Points’ Standings: 11
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 12.33
Richmond: 14.60
Bristol: 6.80
When Busch won at Atlanta, we suggested he might have another victory in him. We’ve lost confidence in that, but if it is going to happen, Bristol is a good place. Even if he makes it out of Round 1, however, he isn’t going much further.
Aric Almirola (1 win / 0 stage wins / 2,005 points)
PointsBet Odds: +4000
Power Ranking: 2 (18.35)
Points’ Standings: 14
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 16.00
Richmond: 11.60
Bristol: 26.20
There was nothing fluky about Almirola’s New Hampshire win. He found the right setup for that short, flat track and flat out dominated. Richmond has some of the same characteristics, so if he is going to beat our prediction, that is the most likely place for it to occur.
Michael McDowell (1 win / 0 stage wins / 2,005 points)
PointsBet Odds: +15000
Power Ranking: 2 (24.48)
Points’ Standings: 13
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Darlington: 23.50
Richmond: 26.60
Bristol: 25.20
The problem with carburetor-restricted superspeedway wins is they don’t really predict anything. McDowell is happy to have made the playoffs, but he is only going to have a short time to revel in that feeling. Still, the fanfare surrounding the playoff drivers should add some funds to a team that really needs them.
Power | Power | | |
| Points | Points | PointsBet Odds | Driver | Wins | Stage | | | Darlington | Richmond | Bristol | |
| Projected to make the finals | |||||||||||||
1 | 5.71 | | |
| 5 | 2,021 | +600 | 2 | 3 | | | 15.50 | 9.80 | 9.60 | ||
2 | 5.72 | | |
| 1 | 2,052 | +270 | 5 | 12 | | | 2.33 | 17.00 | 9.00 | ||
3 | 6.07 | | |
| 2 | 2,024 | +1600 | 3 | 4 | | | 16.17 | 18.20 | 14.80 | ||
4 | 7.00 | | |
| 7 | 2,015 | +900 | 0 | 5 | | | 10.50 | 7.60 | 11.60 | ||
| Projected to make round 3 | |||||||||||||
8 | 11.81 | | |
| 3 | 2,024 | +800 | 3 | 5 | | | 10.83 | 2.40 | 20.80 | ||
9 | 11.89 | | |
| 8 | 2,014 | +1500 | 1 | 3 | | | 18.67 | 17.00 | 21.20 | ||
11 | 12.50 | | |
| 4 | 2,022 | +700 | 2 | 5 | | | 8.80 | 5.00 | 6.20 | ||
15 | 14.88 | | |
| 6 | 2,015 | +1400 | 3 | 0 | | | 14.00 | 12.40 | 19.80 | ||
| Projected to make round 2 | |||||||||||||
6 | 11.07 | | |
| 16 | 2,002 | +1500 | 0 | 0 | | | 3.17 | 8.80 | 14.80 | ||
7 | 11.24 | | |
| 12 | 2,005 | +2000 | 1 | 0 | | | 20.75 | 9.50 | 18.50 | ||
17 | 15.21 | | |
| 9 | 2,013 | +1200 | 1 | 5 | | | 9.33 | 6.60 | 11.00 | ||
18 | 15.48 | | |
| 10 | 2,008 | +1200 | 1 | 2 | | | 9.67 | 7.00 | 14.40 | ||
| Projected to fail to advance to Round 2 | |||||||||||||
10 | 12.86 | | |
| 15 | 2,003 | +10000 | 0 | 3 | | | 13.75 | 15.50 | 20.00 | ||
12 | 12.81 | | |
| 11 | 2,008 | +3500 | 1 | 3 | | | 12.33 | 14.60 | 6.80 | ||
21 | 18.35 | | |
| 14 | 2,005 | +4000 | 1 | 0 | | | 16.00 | 11.60 | 26.20 | ||
29 | 24.48 | | |
| 13 | 2,005 | +15000 | 1 | 0 | | | 23.50 | 26.60 | 25.20 | ||
A note about the three-year stats: The three-year average finish is a script that looks at the last 1,116 days—to provide for minor changes in the schedule. Since some races shift dates more than a week or two, the past three years race total occasionally varies. It is a consistent snapshot, however.
A note about the Power Average: The Fantasy Power Rankings formula includes finishing results this season (all season) as well as various “strength-based” intangibles such as Laps in the top 15, average running position, driver rating, and quality passes (passing a car while in the top 15) expressed as if they were finishing results. The lower the number, the stronger the driver.
