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On the heels of the longest race in NASCAR history, when the Coke 600 turned into the Coke 620 after two overtimes, NASCAR cuts that distance in half to run a short 300-miler on the flat, 1.25-mile World Wide Technology Raceway.
This is the inaugural race on this track, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have some data to parse.
The size of both the track and race makes Phoenix Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway the closest comparatives, and since we often find a meaningful relationship between those two tracks and the shorter Richmond Raceway and Martinsville Speedway, we are tentatively adding this to our short, flat track script to give us an initial sort and help get an idea of how drivers will run.
Of course, there is the ever-present caveat for 2022 that we are not quite certain how the NextGen car is going to perform on a given week. The Coke 600 should have been more predictable than it was – and it wasn’t just the high attrition that made it difficult to handicap. This car has been designed to enhance parity and so far, that is exactly what it has done.
1. Kyle Busch
Busch’s perseverance got him back into the race hunt at Charlotte. He can be just as tenacious on low-banked tracks and enters the weekend with six straight top-10s on them. (15)
2. Ryan Blaney
Since Gateway is an inaugural race, there isn’t a lot to go on, but with minimal banking we suspect it will act like a short, flat track and Blaney’s worst finish on them in his last four attempts was a seventh. (63)
3. William Byron
Byron has been on a downward trend over the past 45 days and he’s in peril of losing his top-10 status in the Power Rankings, but his last truly strong run came on a short, flat track in Martinsville. (25)
4. Denny Hamlin
Hamlin’s second-place finish in the All-Star Race and win last week in the Coke 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway are enough to make us think this team has completely reversed their fortune. (5)
5. Kyle Larson
In the past few weeks we’ve seen Larson step over the line too often. He’s trying to force a result that isn’t coming naturally, and that could result in an accident on this oddly-shaped short, flat track. (7)
6. Chase Elliott
Elliott is in jeopardy of losing all the momentum he gained in the first 12 weeks after crashing and finishing in the back of the pack for three straight weeks, (including the All-Star Race). (60)
7. Martin Truex, Jr.
The key to success for Truex on this short, flat track is that he must stay out of trouble and avoid mistakes. If he does that, he will almost certainly contend for a top-five. (41)
8. Ross Chastain
With two wins under their belt, the No. 1 team thought it was a good time to gamble on two tires at Charlotte. They were wrong, but Chastain easily had the best car in that event. (9)
9. Christopher Bell
Bell is easily the most improved driver in recent weeks. Since finishing third at Circuit of the Americas (COTA), he has finished worse than seventh only twice in his last nine attempts. (50)
10. Chase Briscoe
Briscoe’s Phoenix win may be a distant memory for some of your competition, but you will want to note that he followed that with an 11th at Richmond and ninth at Martinsville. (27)
11. Kevin Harvick
Harvick is hard to handicap at the moment. He did not run particularly well at Charlotte but avoided the carnage and finished third. That was his fourth top-10 in a current streak of five top-15s. (57)
12. Kurt Busch
A fifth at Phoenix and sixth at Martinsville give us a lot of hope that Busch will run well this week on the equally flat World Wide Technology Raceway. His 35th at Richmond dampens that enthusiasm a little, however. (22)
13. Alex Bowman
Bowman won on short, flat tracks twice last year, but he seems to have lost a little of his speed in 2022. In three attempts, he has finished in a narrow range of eighth (at Richmond) to 14th (Phoenix). (69)
14. Austin Dillon
With four fresh tires, Dillon was going to win his second Coke 600, but he couldn’t hold his low line and pushed up into Larson during the first overtime. The chaos that immediately erupted ultimately defined the race. (11)
15. Chris Buescher
Buescher will be battered and bruised after last week’s scary crash in the Coke 600. He’ll be happy to return to a track type on which he’s swept the top 15 so far this season. (53)
16. Daniel Suarez
His Coke 600 performance would have gone in the books as his best effort of the season if not for the accident that ended his day. There is a lot of promise in this team and once it’s fulfilled, they will rattle off some strong runs. (38)
17. Tyler Reddick
Reddick has earned only one top-10 on a short, flat track in his career. He already has one at Phoenix this spring and is running well enough overall that he should challenge for a top 15. (30)
18. Brad Keselowski
Since leaving Daytona, Keselowski has not scored a top-10. In his last 13 races, his average is a little outside of 20th. One of his few top-15s came at Richmond, however. (33)
19. Aric Almirola
Almirola drove like a man possessed last week at Charlotte and that reeked of desperation. He’s been holding a steadier wheel on the short, flat tracks, however, and earned two top-15s in three attempts. (84)
20. Joey Logano
The best thing in Logano’s favor this week is that Gateway is shaped a lot like Darlington Raceway, which is the only place he has had success in his last five attempts. (78)
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21. Cole Custer
Custer has shown a lot of consistency in recent weeks. Since finishing 23rd at COTA, he’s mostly been in the 20s, but has some solid top-15s sprinkled in. Look for a result hovering around 20th. (86)
22. Austin Cindric
Cindric has not yet cracked the top 10 on a short, flat track, but he has steadily improved and came close to that mark at Martinsville with an 11th. (80)
23. Erik Jones
Even with damage to his No. 43 last week, Jones was one of the strongest competitors at the end of the Coke 600. This team is steadily improving and will eventually contend for top-10s on a regular basis. 46
24. Ty Dillon
Dillon will not anchor a lot of fantasy rosters this week, but he has been consistent and that is worth a lot. In three short, flat tracks races this year, he’s finished between 15th and 24th. (66)
25. Bubba Wallace
Wallace has not yet cracked the top 15 on a short, flat track this season, but he came closest in the most recent race at Martinsville. (88)
26. Michael McDowell
McDowell’s top-10 last week at Charlotte was good to see for a driver who continues to grind it out. His short, flat track record of 25th to 30th this year is more in keeping with how we expect him to run at Gateway. (82)
27. AJ Allmendinger
Allmendinger is listed as the driver for the No. 16 this week. The ‘Dinger’s best short, flat track attempt ended in a 20th at Phoenix. (70)
28. Harrison Burton
Burton’s strongest run on a short, flat track ended in an 18th at Richmond while his other two attempts landed between 25th and 30th. (35)
29. Todd Gilliland
Gilliland got off to a strong start on short, flat tracks with his 19th-place finish in the Ruoff Mortgage 500k, but he slipped to 25th at Richmond and 30th at Martinsville. (75)
30. Justin Haley
Haley showed a lot of promise early in the season on the flat, one-mile Phoenix track. Gateway is slightly longer, but the corners are going to be just as hard to navigate. (18)
31. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
In three starts on short, flat tracks this year, Stenhouse has finished either 27th or 28th. He showed promise last week at Charlotte, but we need a few more weeks like that before predicting a top-15. (44)
32. Corey LaJoie
LaJoie has been one of our favorite dark horses in several races so far in 2022, but he has underwhelmed the field on short, flat tracks with a best of 31st at Richmond. (72)
33. Josh Bilicki
Bilicki has made only one start on a short, flat track this year and it ended in a 35th-place finish at Martinsville. It’s hard to get excited about that. (87)
34. Cody Ware
Ware has two top-20 finishes in races that were severely thinned by attrition, but there is no reason to think the same things that happened at Darlington and Charlotte will happen this week. (90)
35. BJ McLeod
In three races on short, flat tracks this year, McLeod has gotten progressively worse with a 33rd at Phoenix, 34th at Richmond, and 36th at Martinsville. (91)
36. Parker Kligerman
No one doubts Kligerman’s ability, but the success of this team is going to come down to attrition most likely. This will be Kligerman’s first Cup start since last fall’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas. (6)
The number in parentheses after the handicap refers to our confidence level for that driver compared to the field. A low number does not necessarily mean we do not have confidence this week, but that contrasted with the others in the field in previous races, we have missed more often in their handicaps. Starting with a confidence level of 90 percent, because 100 is impossible to achieve, this number decrements by percentage to a low of five.
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Cheat Sheet: Ruoff Mortgage 500k [Phoenix 1]
Toyota Owners 400 [Richmond 1]
Blue-Emu 500 [Martinsville 1]
