Anyone who says they have a handicapping formula that works for Talladega SuperSpeedway is either lying or delusional, but predictions still must be made. The four races each year on the plate tracks are among the most elusive to predict and that can be problematic for fantasy players.
Just as the driver must in the big series, players have to survive this race with as many points as possible. If you go with the most popular racers, you are likely to minimize the damage from Big One crashes.
If you want to take some wild risks, however, there are a lot of dark horses that roam freely.
1. Brad Keselowski
Keselowski has won three of the last seven Talladega races. This track can be a wild card, but certain drivers certainly seem to have figured it out.
2. Joey Logano
For some reason, Logano has been much better in the fall than spring at Talladega in the past three years. All he needs is a little luck to win this race after scoring two victories in the fall Alabama 500.
3. Aric Almirola
Almirola came within a half-lap of winning the Daytona 500, but more importantly, he was that close to securing a four-race, top-five streak on plate tracks.
4. Ryan Newman
Streaks are incredibly hard to come by on restrictor-plate, superspeedways, so Newman’s current three-race run of top-10s is incredibly meaningful.
5. David Ragan
Before getting swept into an accident just past the midway point of the Daytona 500, Ragan had a three-race streak of top-10s going on plate tracks.
6. Denny Hamlin
With a sixth last fall at Talladega and a third this spring in Daytona, Hamlin enters the weekend with back-to-back top-10s on plate tracks - and not many have that same claim.
7. Paul Menard
There are few guarantees in NASCAR on a plate track, but Menard is close: he has a current eight-race string of results 13th or better.
8. Kyle Busch
Busch has likened winning a fourth consecutive race on the plate track of Talladega to winning the lottery. Who are we to disagree?
9. Kurt Busch
From late 2014 through the middle of last year, Busch earned nine top-10s and another 12th in 11 plate races. His last three efforts have been 25th or worse.
10. AJ Allmendinger
Allmendinger has a knack for restrictor-plate racing with six top-15 finishes in his last nine attempts on them. These include a 10th this spring in the Daytona 500.
11. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Stenhouse has been all or nothing on this track type in the past three seasons with a pair of victories and two top-fives compared to five results outside the top 15.
12. Chris Buescher
Plate tracks are often dominated by dark horses: Buescher has finished 17th or better in his last four races on this track type.
13. Kyle Larson
In 2016, Larson scored three top-10s in four plate races. He has not cracked that barrier since and finished only 19th in this year’s Daytona 500.
14. Austin Dillon
In 2016, Dillon swept the top 10. In 2017, his best effort was only 19th. That means that his previous records are not particularly predictive of how he will finish this week.
15. Ryan Blaney
It is easy to over-value Blaney on plate track based on his last two Daytona 500 finishes, but his other three plate races in 2017 were all outside the top 15.
16. Darrell Wallace Jr.
Wallace has not yet turned a wheel in Cup competition at Talladega, but his two efforts at Daytona have been incredibly strong – including a runner-up finish in this year’s Daytona 500.
17. William Byron
In nine races this year, Byron has amassed seven top-20 finishes. He came close on one other occasion with a 23rd in this year’s Daytona 500.
18. Trevor Bayne
Bayne is going to have a lot to prove this week after news that he will have to share his ride with Matt Kenseth for a while in 2018.
19. Chase Elliott
Speed has never been the issue with Elliott on the plate tracks. Luck is an intangible that can neither be quantified or ignored.
20. Michael McDowell
McDowell is worthy of consideration this week based on his exploits at Daytona: He finished ninth there this spring and was fourth last summer. With a pair of 30-somethings at ‘Dega, however, players should be careful.
21. Jimmie Johnson
If Johnson stays out of trouble, he will beat this prediction by a wide margin – but accidents and mistakes have been the hallmark of his recent plate attempts.
22. Jamie McMurray
Anything can happen on a plate track and McMurray scored a remarkable second in last spring’s edition of the Geico 500. The remainder of his efforts in the past two seasons were 14th or worse.
23. Clint Bowyer
Bowyer has found success on plate tracks in the past, but his last three Talladega starts have all ended outside the top 10.
24. Daniel Suarez
In five previous plate races, Suarez has a best finish of 15th. Since that is the most one can expect, taking a risk on him does not seem like a great idea.
25. Brendan Gaughan
Gaughan was running strong in this year’s Daytona 500 before an accident sent him home early. He was seventh in last year’s Coke 400.
26. Kevin Harvick
One of Harvick’s few stumbles this year came at Daytona when he crashed and finished 31st. He has only one top-20 on plate tracks in the past two seasons and is not recommended.
27. Alex Bowman
There is still a lot of pressure on this Young Gun to perform in the No. 88 and that is not a good thing on a wild card track like Talladega.
28. Martin Truex Jr.
Considering how strong Truex is on most track types, it would be a waste to start him on a restrictor-plate, superspeedway in allocation management games.
29. Erik Jones
Luck has definitely not been on Jones’ side on the restrictor-plate, superspeedways. Four of his five efforts ended in the 30s; his other result was a top-10.
30. Gray Gaulding
If a fantasy player is looking for a longshot, dark horse: Gaulding fits the bill with a ninth in last fall’s Alabama 500 and a worst of 20th on plate tracks in three starts.
31. Kasey Kahne
Kahne’s season started out with a lot of promise at Daytona, but it didn’t take long for reality to set in. He’ll have a little less confidence this week at Talladega.
32. Ty Dillon
Dillon has a similar pattern to David Ragan: he struggled at Daytona last year before finishing 16th or better in the next three plate races. He struggled in the 500 again this year.
33. Cole Whitt
Whitt’s seven-best Cup finishes have all come on restrictor-plate, superspeedways, so there is an outside chance that he will finish in the top 20 this week.
34. Matt DiBenedetto
Coming off three runs of 21st or better this season, DiBenedetto might be a little overconfident on the plate track. That could prove costly.
35. Joey Gase
Two of Gase’s three career top-25s came on restrictor-plate, superspeedways. That is enough to make him an interesting choice this week.
36. Reed Sorenson
Sorenson sat out the last two plate races, but his four efforts on them previously needed a best of 30th. There will be better dark horses available.
37. Ross Chastain
In 10 previous starts at the Cup level, Chastain has a best finish of 18th at Texas, but he has never faced the tight drafting pack of the restrictor-plate, superspeedways.
38. DJ Kennington
In a race with heavy attrition, Kennington finished 33rd last fall at Talladega. Unfortunately, he was eventually sidelined as well, so it’s just a matter of how badly a player needs a bargain as to whether he gets the start.
39. Cole Custer
Custer is listed as the driver of the No. 51, but there might be a last-minute change according the NBC NASCAR Talk. Regardless, the car will advance mostly by attrition.
40. Timothy Peters
Talk about ‘Trial by Fire’? Peters will make his Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series debut on one of the hairiest tracks around, but if he keeps his nose clean, he could get a solid finish by attrition.
Previous Cheat Sheets
Daytona 500
Auto Club 400
Toyota Owners 400 (Richmond)
O’Reilly 500 (Texas)
STP 500 (Martinsville)
