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NASCAR is in the middle of a heavy rotation of road courses. Two weeks ago the series raced at Sonoma Raceway, this week will be contested on the famed Road America, and four weeks later, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course makes an appearance.
Normally, this would be a time for exceptional road course racers to make a move. A couple of drivers, like Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr., and Christopher Bell who have been solid on this course type could get their first win, but with Ross Chastain taking the race at Circuit of the Americas (COTA) earlier this year and Daniel Suarez winning at Sonoma, these events have truly become wild cards.
The difference between last year’s road results and the first two races of 2022 has been striking. The same cast of characters are not at the head of the pack, so fantasy players and bettors must decide if they believe overall skill or recent momentum is going to carry the day.
That is a question that will continue to be asked until the checkers waved over the 4-mile road course.
1. Chase Elliott
Road course races have not gone according to popular opinion this year, but the cream still finds a way to rise to the top and Elliott could become the first three-time winner of 2022. (64)
2. Kyle Larson
Larson’s luck has not been very good this year on road courses and he was spun by his own teammate last year at Road America. He’s still one of the best on this track type, however. (15)
3. Ross Chastain
After winning his first career race at COTA earlier this year, Chastain finished seventh at Sonoma and that will put him in the spotlight. Last year, he earned three top-10s on this track type in seven races. (30)
4. Ryan Blaney
Blaney got off to a slow start on road courses last year with only one top-10 in his first five attempts. He was second to Allmendinger at Indy and has not been outside the top 10 since. (72)
5. Austin Cindric
Four drivers have swept the top 10 on road courses this year. Cindric is one of them, and once you add his ninth from Indy last year, he has a three-race, top-10 streak. (57)
6. Denny Hamlin
With five top-10s in seven road course starts last year, we expected more from Hamlin at COTA and Sonoma, but he’s failed to crack the top 15 on a road course in 2022. Then again, he’s been unpredictable so anything can happen this week. (5)
7. Chris Buescher
Buescher was Daniel Suarez‘s closest competition at Sonoma. He had a shot at punching his playoff ticket in that race and could be a pleasant surprise again with two top-three results in his last three road course races. (35)
8. Alex Bowman
Bowman’s brake problems in last year’s edition of this race snapped a four-race streak of top-10s and it took a while for him to recover. His second at COTA this spring shows he has speed, however. (70)
9. Tyler Reddick
Entering Sonoma, Reddick has five top-10s in his previous seven road course attempts. For the moment, set aside his problems at Sonoma and expect good things from this Young Gun. (27)
10. William Byron
Byron has been consistent on road courses in recent events with four of his last five efforts landing between sixth and 12th. (9)
11. Kurt Busch
One of the themes of the first two road course races this year is that 2021 records are not carrying over. Busch had four top-10s in seven races last year but is still seeking his first top-15 of 2022. (11)
12. Joey Logano
At the beginning of last year, it appeared Logano would be a strong competitor to the Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) drivers on the twisty tracks with three top-fives. He has only one top-10 on them in the last six attempts though. (75)
13. AJ Allmendinger
No one doubts Allmendinger’s skill on road courses. He has a victory last year at Indy to underscore his strength, but too many things have gone wrong recently to handicap him much higher. (34)
14. Martin Truex, Jr.
Truex has been a disappointment in his last four road course attempts with only one top-10 to show for his effort, but last week’s solid run in Nashville may improve his confidence. (38)
15. Kyle Busch
It is a little difficult to know how to handicap the Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) drivers after their anemic Sonoma effort and failed strategy attempts in the past two races, but the bottom line for Busch this year is a best of 28th on a road course. (18)
16. Erik Jones
In better equipment, Jones scored road course top-fives in each season from 2018 through 2020, but he only has two top-10s in the past two seasons. (46)
17. Christopher Bell
When Bell is good on road courses, he is very good; when he’s bad, he’s a huge disappointment. In his last nine attempts, he has five top-10s and four results of 24th or worse. (50)
18. Austin Dillon
Keep an eye on Dillon in prelims. Seven of his last eight road course attempts ended in top-15s and his 10th at COTA made him one of the best values that weekend. (41)
19. Brad Keselowski
As Team Penske continues to search for their missing pieces, Keselowski has run well on road courses this year with a 14th at COTA and 10th at Sonoma on ‘drivers’ tracks’. (44)
20. Michael McDowell
McDowell has often been one of our dark horse picks on road courses and he showed why at Sonoma two races ago. The question is whether lightning will strike twice. (53)
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21. Chase Briscoe
Briscoe is still seeking his first top-five on a road course and he hasn’t had a top-10 in his last four attempts. He is still worthy of attention in practice and qualification. (25)
22. Kevin Harvick
His fourth-place finish in the Save Mart 350k was encouraging, but that is one of only three top-10s for Harvick in his last 11 road course races. (33)
23. Justin Haley
Watch Haley in practice and qualification and if he posts fast times, he could be one of the dark horses of the weekend. He’s not worth a wager, but could fit a niche on your fantasy roster. (7)
24. Aric Almirola
Almirola finished 14th at Road America last year and he’s earned five results in the teens in the last six races on this course type. He’s a solid mid-priced driver. (80)
25. Todd Gilliland
With only two Cup starts on this track type, there is not a lot to go on, but Gilliland’s worst finish so far was a 24th at Sonoma. He finished 16th at COTA. (84)
26. Daniel Suarez
Not many people had a road course on their bingo card for Suarez’s first career win. His victory at Sonoma says much more about the unpredictability of this season than his road racing skill. (22)
27. Cole Custer
In his rookie season, Custer showed promise on the road courses with a ninth on the Charlotte Roval, but he has not cracked the top 10 since and has only two top-15s in his last nine starts. (88)
28. Ty Dillon
His might not be the first name that springs to mind on road courses, but Dillon has finished between 15th and 26th in his last eight attempts on the track type dating back to 2019. (82)
29. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
In a topsy-turvy season, Stenhouse could get a top-10 on this track type. Dating back to 2018, 10 of his 17 road course attempts have been in the teens. (67)
30. Harrison Burton
A 17th at COTA and 28th at Sonoma suggests that Burton could go either way this week. Watch and evaluate, but it’s not time to start him just yet. (61)
31. Bubba Wallace
Wallace is still seeking his first road course top-10, but he came close last year three times with results of 13th or 14th in three races, including a strong run on the Charlotte Roval. (86)
32. Corey LaJoie
Four of LaJoie’s last nine road course attempts ended in results of 21st or better, but he’s still seeking his first top-15. (78)
33. Joey Hand
The Save Mart 350k at Sonoma was a bit of an outlier where traditional road courses are concerned. That chaos played into Hand’s - well, hands - and he finished 20th. (52)
34. Josh Bilicki
In the past two seasons, Bilicki scored one top-20 on road courses and that came in the high-attrition race at Indy. He came close to getting another at COTA with a 22nd. (85)
35. Kyle Tilley
Tilley made three starts on road courses last year for McLeod with the best of these ended in 30th at Watkins Glen International. He was 35th at Road America. (87)
36. Cody Ware
Results of 25th and 27th in the first road course races of the past two seasons have been the high-water mark for Ware and he’s been outside 30th in every race since. (90)
37. Loris Hezemans
Making only his second road racing start, there is not a lot to go on with Hezemans, so we will be a little cautious and watch him this week at Road America. (89)
The number in parentheses after the handicap refers to our confidence level for that driver compared to the field. A low number does not necessarily mean we do not have confidence this week, but that contrasted with the others in the field in previous races, we have missed more often in their handicaps. Starting with a confidence level of 90 percent, because 100 is impossible to achieve, this number decrements by percentage to a low of five.
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Cheat Sheet: Save Mart 350k [Sonoma]
EchoPark Grand Prix [COTA]
Blue-Emu 500 [Martinsville 1]
