This week’s race: AAA Texas 500
Traditional Name: Texas 500
Other Notable Names: Dickies 500, Texas 500
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is not the only driver with the sound of a clicking clock in his head. Only three races remain in the 2014 NASCAR Cup season. That means something different to each driver in the field, but for all of them there is an increased sense of urgency.
The eight Chase drivers know that winning one of the next two races will allow them to contend for the championship—and winning at Homestead if they are among the top four, will mean taking the Cup home. Drivers who have already been eliminated from playoff contention have pride on the line and a desire to provide value to their sponsors. Tony Stewart wants to keep his streak of winning in consecutive years alive, while Kyle Larson and Austin Dillon want to win in their rookie seasons.
Put all those drivers on the track and put up a purse that includes nearly a half million dollars to the winner and drivers are highly motivated to get to the checkered flag first. Only one can.
10 best drivers at Texas
Over the past six races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.1. Matt Kenseth
Last six races average finish at Texas: 6.00
Career avg. finish: 8.3 in 24 attempts
With a career average finish of 8.3, fantasy players might expect that Kenseth has always been strong at Texas. He won in his third attempt on this track and finished sixth the following year, but four of his first six efforts ended outside the top 15. Since then, only one of 18 efforts have been worse than 12th and Kenseth could finally get that elusive first win of the season and lock himself into the Championship round.
2. Kyle Busch
Last six races average finish at Texas: 6.20 (5 starts)
Career avg. finish: 15.0 in 20 attempts
Busch is an all or nothing driver on most courses. Texas is not exactly an exception because three of his last five races ended in top-fives and the other two were outside the top 10—but in this case, they were only barely outside that mark with an 11th in spring 2012 and a 13th last fall. When he hits the right setup, he can dominate like he did in spring 2013—winning from the pole—so he could be Kenseth’s strongest competition and fantasy owners will get to see if there are any team orders at Joe Gibbs Racing.
3. Greg Biffle
Last six races average finish at Texas: 6.33
Career avg. finish: 14.7 in 21 attempts
Biffle is another driver who took a while to warm up to Texas, but once he did he has been as strong as Kenseth. His last 12 attempts on this track ended in results of 12th or better and only one of those efforts landed outside the top 10. He has mostly qualified on the first five rows as well, which should take any guesswork out of starting him on Sunday.
4. Jimmie Johnson
Last six races average finish at Texas: 8.17
Career avg. finish: 9.2 in 22 attempts
As with most of the tracks that are included in the Chase, Johnson has exceled at Texas during his career. That has been a cold comfort in 2014, however, as he is struggling everywhere. Moreover, he suffered his second worst finish there in the spring when his car was damaged by debris from teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. early in the race. He may be feeling just a little gun shy right now.
5. Martin Truex Jr.
Last six races average finish at Texas: 10.17
Career avg. finish: 15.2 in 18 attempts
Truex owes his spot among the top 10 to consistency, but that is often a more valuable commodity than raw strength. He entered the spring Duck Commander 500 with a five-race streak of top-15s, but finished just outside that mark in 18th. Still, it was not a bad result with a new team and he has more momentum on his side from recent similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track races.
6. Kasey Kahne
Last six races average finish at Texas: 10.33
Career avg. finish: 17.7 in 20 attempts
Kahne’s efforts at Texas have been a little erratic. He has managed to back up one top-10 with another only once in his career and that came in his final attempt on this track with Red Bull Racing and his first with Hendrick Motorsports. Like Kyle Busch, he can be strong on occasion and he finished fifth in last year’s AAA 500, but he can also miss the setup like he did in the 2012 version of this same race.
7. Clint Bowyer
Last six races average finish at Texas: 10.83
Career avg. finish: 12.5 in 17 attempts
Bowyer has not earned a top-five at Texas since he was second in the 2011 Samsung Mobile 500. Since then, he has finished in a narrow band from sixth through 17th, however, and that makes him an interesting driver to watch this week, especially in light of the back-to-back top-10s he brings from Talladega and Martinsville in the last two weeks.
8. Brian Vickers
Last six races average finish at Texas: 11.00 (3 starts)
Career avg. finish: 21.6 in 16 attempts
The sheriff was on the job at Martinsville and he arrested Kahne’s forward progress after an earlier incident dropped the No. 55 a lap off the pace. Kahne got the final word with a retaliatory spin and Vickers may feel like a balance has not been achieved, but he needs to put that aside and concentrate on Texas because he enters with back-to-back top-10s in his last two starts there.
9. Tony Stewart
Last six races average finish at Texas: 12.20 (5 starts)
Career avg. finish: 13.0 in 24 attempts
If Stewart wants to extend his streak of consecutive seasons with a win to 16, Texas might be the best place to do so. He won the 2011 AAA Texas 500 and since then three of his last five victories came on 1.5- and two-mile tracks. If he misses, he also had a win at Homestead later that same season, so hope will remain alive until the final checkered flag waves.
10. Joey Logano
Last six races average finish at Texas: 12.67
Career avg. finish: 18.4 in 12 attempts
The news for Logano is actually better than his six-race average suggests. He earned only one top-10 during his Joe Gibbs Racing career, but he has been perfect in three races with Roger Penske. Last year he swept the top-five and he won this spring’s Duck Commander 500 in convincing fashion.
Others of Note
11. Carl Edwards
Last six races average finish at Texas: 13.33
Career avg. finish: 15.5 in 19 attempts
Readers should glance at the top 10 one more time. They will note that the only Chasers included in that list are Kenseth and Logano, which could make for an interesting show on Sunday. These drivers who have not been uniformly strong at Texas in the last few years may need to gamble in order to get to the lead pack and that could either pay huge dividends or create problems.
12. Ryan Newman
Last six races average finish at Texas: 14.00
Career avg. finish: 19.1 in 22 attempts
The highs have not been high enough for Newman to include him in the top 10, but his lows have not been all that bad either. In his last six starts, he finished worse than 16th one time, but that is offset by only two top-10s—the best of which was a ninth in this race last year. Newman should be viewed as a provisionally strong pick if he fits the final slot on a roster.
14. Denny Hamlin
Last six races average finish at Texas: 14.40 (5 starts)
Career avg. finish: 10.8 in 17 attempts
Hamlin swept Victory Lane in 2010, but those were his last top-fives on this track. Since then, the best he has managed was a seventh in this race last year although his 13th in the spring Duck Commander 500 was not too far outside of the top 10. This will be a race in which he tries to manage the downside in order to have a better opportunity to win at Phoenix.
15. Brad Keselowski
Last six races average finish at Texas: 15.33
Career avg. finish: 19.5 in 12 attempts
Like his teammate Logano, the news for Keselowski is actually a little better than it seems. He entered this spring’s Texas race with a three-race, top-10 streak and probably would have backed it up if not for a penalty late in the Duck Commander 500.
16. Kevin Harvick
Last six races average finish at Texas: 15.67
Career avg. finish: 13.6 in 23 attempts
Harvick’s six-race average took a huge hit this spring when he finished 42nd with a blown engine on lap 28 of the Duck Commander 500. Fantasy players should not anticipate that happening again, but they should still manage their expectations. Harvick’s five races prior to his DNF ended in a narrow band from eighth through 13th and he will probably finish there again this week.
20. Jeff Gordon
Last six races average finish at Texas: 17.00
Career avg. finish: 17.2 in 27 attempts
Statistically, Gordon is the worst of the Chasers on this track in recent seasons. He has experienced some of his biggest disappointments there with back-to-back, 38th-place finishes last year and consecutive accidents in 2010. This spring he finished second to Logano, however, and had a car capable of winning on long runs. If they stay out of trouble, the No. 24 team should earn another top-five.
Three-year average finish | |||
Rank | Driver | 3-Year Avg. Finish | Attempts |
1. | 6.00 | 6 | |
2. | 6.20 | 5 | |
3. | 6.33 | 6 | |
4. | 8.17 | 6 | |
5. | 10.17 | 6 | |
6. | 10.33 | 6 | |
7. | 10.83 | 6 | |
8. | 11.00 | 3 | |
9. | 12.20 | 5 | |
10. | 12.67 | 6 | |
11. | 13.33 | 6 | |
12. | 14.00 | 6 | |
12. | 14.00 | 2 | |
14. | 14.40 | 5 | |
15. | 15.33 | 6 | |
16. | 15.67 | 6 | |
17. | 16.33 | 6 | |
18. | 16.60 | 5 | |
19. | 16.83 | 6 | |
20. | 17.00 | 6 | |
21. | 20.50 | 6 | |
22. | 21.00 | 4 | |
23. | 22.00 | 6 | |
24. | 22.17 | 6 | |
25. | 24.00 | 6 | |
26. | 25.33 | 3 | |
27. | 26.00 | 4 | |
28. | 27.17 | 6 | |
29. | 27.33 | 3 | |
30. | 29.67 | 6 | |
30. | 29.67 | 6 | |
32. | 30.50 | 6 | |
33. | 30.67 | 6 | |
34. | 36.83 | 6 | |
35. | 38.00 | 6 | |
36. | 38.50 | 4 | |
36. | 38.50 | 2 | |
38. | J.J. Yeley | 39.00 | 6 |
39. | 40.67 | 6 | |
Exercise Caution
Most caution flags: 12 (3 times), 2007 Dickies 500, 2006 Dickies 500, 2000 DirecTV 500
Fewest caution flags: 2, 2012 Samsung Mobile 500
Average number of caution flags per race: 7.6
Final Caution, last five races:
April 2014: 334 of 340 (to set up green-white-checkered): debris
November 2013: 257 of 334: debris
April 2013: 315 of 334: debris
November 2012: 331 of 335 (green-white-checkered): two-car accident (Mark Martin, Carl Edwards)
April 2012: 95 of 334: debris
Most caution laps: 73, 1997 Interstate Batteries 500
Fewest caution laps: 10, 2012 Samsung Mobile 500
Average number of caution laps per race: 39.1
Leading the way
Most leaders: 17, 2000 DirecTV 500Fewest leaders: 4, 2009 Dickies 500
Average number of leaders: 10.5
Most lead changes: 33, 2010 AAA Texas 500
Fewest lead changes: 13 (2 times), 2009 Dickies 500, 2007 Samsung 500
Average number of lead changes: 22.4
Victory Lane
Last five winners (starting position):April 2014: Joey Logano (10th)
November 2013: Jimmie Johnson (third)
April 2013: Kyle Busch (pole)
November 2012: Jimmie Johnson (pole)
April 2012: Greg Biffle (third)
Worst starting position for race winner: 31st, Matt Kenseth: 2002 Samsung / Radio Shack 500
A race at Texas has been won by the pole sitter 3 times and from the front row 6 times in 27 races.
Recent races won from the pole:
April 2013: Kyle Busch, NRA 500
November 2012: Jimmie Johnson, AAA Texas 500
April 2006: Kasey Kahne, Samsung / Radio Shack 500
Active winners at Texas
Carl Edwards: 3
Jimmie Johnson: 3
Greg Biffle: 2
Denny Hamlin: 2
Matt Kenseth: 2
Tony Stewart: 2
Kurt Busch: 1
Kyle Busch: 1
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 1
Jeff Gordon: 1
Kasey Kahne: 1
Joey Logano: 1
Ryan Newman: 1
First time winners at Texas:
Dale Earnhardt Jr., 2000 DirecTV 500
Jeff Burton: 1997 Interstate Batteries 500
Running at the End
The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Texas race they started:Casey Mears (20)
Kyle Busch (18)
Denny Hamlin (17)
Brad Keselowski (12)
Trevor Bayne (8)
Aric Almirola (7)
Danica Patrick (4)
Austin Dillon (3)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (3)
Kyle Larson (2)
Justin Allgaier (1)
Michael Annett (1)
Alex Bowman (1)
Cole Whitt (1)
Landon Cassill failed to finish his first race in 2010, but has been running at the end of the last eight.
Matt Kenseth failed to finish his first race in 2000, but has been running at the end of the last 23.
Kevin Harvick had been running at the end of his first 22 races until his engine blew this spring.
Great Starts
Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: first (2000)
Kasey Kahne: second (2004)
Kurt Busch: fourth (2001)
Jimmie Johnson: sixth (2002)
Tony Stewart: sixth (1999)
Denny Hamlin: seventh (2005)
Kevin Harvick: seventh (2001)
Jamie McMurray: 10th (2003)
