Fantasy owners cannot expect to win their weekly contest without paying close attention to practice. Drivers’ records are important, but it’s really productive when they dovetail with speed during the weekend – and on Friday before the Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway, Kyle Larson was impressive.
With a lap of 162.705 mph in final practice, he posted the second-best speed of the weekend; Joey Logano was faster in the morning session at 163.221 mph, but Larson gets the nod because of how well he performed on long runs.
Logano’s fast lap in the morning was part of a session that saw him land 17th out of 19 drivers on the 10-lap chart.
However, in Happy Hour, Larson’s fast single lap came alongside of the quickest five- and 10-lap averages. Better still, his car looked comfortable for most of that session. Larson was second-quick on the 15- and 20-lap charts and then popped back up to the top on the 25-lap chart.
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Kevin Harvick outpaced Larson on the 15- and 20-lap charts. He gave the top spot over to Larson at 25 laps and then regained in at the 30-lap mark. The battle between these two drivers is going to be interesting in race conditions. The decisive stat won’t be known until midway through the race as we find whether the race is going to take on a long or short run personality. Larson’s and Harvick’s times are close enough that track position will also play a critical role.
Rounding out the 15-lap chart were Jimmie Johnson in third, Denny Hamlin in fourth, and Logano in fifth.
Making long runs is one way to determine who is most comfortable in their car. In final practice, 15 drivers went 25 or more laps and nearly all of them were marquee teams who will contend for top-15 positions. That length run also shined a light on some non-playoff hopefuls.
Johnson had the second-quickest 25-lap average, which wedged him between Larson and Harvick. With 11 victories to his credit (the most recent of which came in 2017), Johnson has experience on his side. A knowledgeable racer can use that to his advantage and guess at how the end of the race will play out. If Johnson wins again during his career, it will probably come as a bit of a surprise, but even without the top spot, he should easily be the best non-playoff racer this week.
Daniel Suarez is one of several drivers with near-perfect records of top-10s at Dover. He landed sixth on the 25-lap chart and should be able to score his fifth top-10 in six career starts. The only time he’s missed that mark was this spring when he finished 11th.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was the next notable driver to place on the 25-lap chart with a time that put him 10th.
For those showing signs of struggling, we will look at the 10-lap chart where 30 drivers recorded that many consecutive laps. Ryan Newman was at the very bottom of that list and it would seem there is a little hangover associated with missing this round of the playoffs.
Clint Bowyer was the slowest among playoff drivers in Happy Hour. He posted a time of 23.324 seconds per lap on the 10-lap chart to land 22nd.
Our favorite on this week’s cheat sheets, Chase Elliott shook that confidence in practice. He was only 17th on the 10-lap chart and 13th of 22 on the 15-lap chart. Generalized over the entire field, that means he could be looking at a mid-pack run. We are not yet ready to say he will finish in the teens, but a result on the high side of the single digits seems likely.
