We’re not sure if it should even be called a changing of the guard any longer. NASCAR has seen a regular influx of rookies in recent seasons – a constant churn of talent. Sometimes the freshman class survives and occasionally they don’t.
William Byron won Rookie of the Year honors over Bubba Wallace in 2018. That year they were the only two freshmen competing. They were in drastically different equipment and Byron won handily, but both drivers have survived into the 2020 season with those same teams.
Last year there were three rookies. Richard Childress Racing fielded the No. 8 for Daniel Hemric, who won top honors, but despite doing so lost his ride to Tyler Reddick.
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Byron and Reddick are racing for teams with different resources. The four-man organization of Hendrick Motorsports has deeper pockets than Childress and his two-car operation. But while money is important, it is not the only factor that plays a role in finishing strong.
The driver makes a difference. Desire and skill play a critical role; so do enthusiasm and experience.
Through the first four weeks of the season, it would appear that Hendrick Motorsports has radically improved. All four of their drivers have scored top-10s and they are contending for strong finishes on a weekly basis. But Reddick has held his own and has been somewhat surprisingly the top rookie contender in the opening races.
Race | Finish | Start | Avg. Run |
Daytona | 40 | 4 | 31.6 |
Las Vegas | 22 | 11 | 7.6 |
Auto Club | 15 | 21 | 14.5 |
Phoenix | 10 | 17 | 13.2 |
Average | 21.75 | 13.25 | 16.70 * |
Reddick and RCR have kept pace. It is not exactly a David and Goliath story because RCR at their best has the capacity to run with a moderately paced Hendrick driver. Still, the numbers are much closer between Byron and Reddick than one would suppose.
In the first four races, Byron has a slightly better average finish of 21.75 to Reddick’s 22.50. Byron has one top-10; Reddick’s best effort landed just outside that mark in 11th at Auto Club, but the raw box score tells only part of the story.
At Phoenix, Reddick had one of the strongest cars in the field. He was in the top 10 at the end of both opening segments, finishing ninth in Stage 1 and fourth in Stage 2. If not for a tire failure, it is more likely than not that Reddick would have finished in the top 10.
On the other hand, Byron was outside the top 10 in both of those segments with a 14th in Stage 1 and 12th in Stage 2. He secured the 10th position at the end when the field was shuffled with late-race strategies. Reddick had the better car on that given Sunday but circumstances denied him the opportunity to prove as much.
Race | Finish | Start | Avg. Run |
Daytona | 28 | 22 | 18.2 |
Las Vegas | 18 | 25 | 18.1 |
Auto Club | 11 | 19 | 14.3 |
Phoenix | 33 | 29 | 13.7 |
Average | 22.50 | 23.75 | 16.07 * |
Additionally, Reddick has a slightly better Average Running Position during the first four weeks with a 16.07 to Byron’s 16.70. If not for that tire issue, Reddick’s number would have been much better at Phoenix than 13.7. Then again, Byron had an exceptional showing at Las Vegas in Week 2 that did not produce a good finish when he was caught on the wrong side of strategy.
Reddick has been a better value overall in 2020 for two other reasons, however. As an unproven rookie his cap value is typically low compared to Byron. That translates into a better points-per-thousand ratio in cap games. In games that offer place-differential points, Reddick also has an advantage with a +1.25 compared to a -8.50 for Byron.
The question that remains to be answered is whether Reddick can keep up with his performance. As a rookie, the odds are that he will struggle more often than he excels, but as a third-year driver Byron is not exactly predictable either.
For the moment, give a slight nod to Reddick, but be prepared to adjust quickly once NASCAR returns to action if Byron gets momentum.
* NASCAR Statistical Services Average Running Position through Week 4.
Previous Head-to-head matchups:
Chris Buescher vs. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Rick Jones vs. Christopher Bell
Chase Elliott vs. Ryan Blaney
Kyle vs. Kurt Busch
Joe Gibbs vs. Team Penske
